November 1, 2026

【US Stock Market Outlook and Investment Strategy for Nov 2–Nov 6: Tech Stock Adjustments and a Rush of Key Events! NISA and Individual Stock Strategies to Survive in a …

The US stock market is currently experiencing increased volatility against the backdrop of sharp declines in the share prices of major tech companies and semiconductor-related stocks.

This week (November 2–6) is an extremely important week as it features a convergence of earnings announcements from major IT and semiconductor companies, as well as the release of super-major economic indicators, including the October US employment report.

Review of Last Week

The US stock market remained nervous throughout last week, and particularly on Friday the 30th, it recorded a significant decline, centered on tech and semiconductor stocks. The S&P 500 index fell by 1.8% (7,580 points) from the previous day on the 30th, and the NASDAQ Composite Index fell by 2.9% (25,437 points), marking the NASDAQ’s largest decline since June.

The closing prices and percentage changes for the major indices over the week are as follows.

NY Dow Jones Industrial Average: $51,770.31 (down 0.9% from the previous weekend)
S&P 500 Index: 7,580.07 (down 0.6%)
NASDAQ Composite Index: 25,437.00 (down 2.0%)
Russell 2000 (Small-cap Index): 2,811.84 (up 1.3%)

The four main factors that significantly moved the market are as follows.

1. Intel’s earnings outlook shock and the sharp decline in the semiconductor sector

Semiconductor giant Intel (INTC) announced its fourth-quarter revenue outlook ($15 billion to $16 billion) on October 30, which fell significantly below market expectations ($17.1 billion).
As the company’s CEO pointed to a slowdown in the PC market due to memory prices and supply-demand dynamics, the stock price plunged by approximately 28.6% in a single day.

Following this, on the same day, major semiconductor stocks such as NVIDIA (NVDA, down 4.2%), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, down 10.9%), and Broadcom (AVGO, down 5.5%) were all sold off simultaneously, causing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) to plummet by 7.2%.

2. Caution and disappointment selling regarding mega-cap earnings

In the highly anticipated mega-cap earnings, results that fell below prior analyst expectations, disappointing outlooks, and massive AI investments were met with aversion. Alphabet (GOOGL) experienced a record decline, and Amazon.com (AMZN) was also heavily sold off. Microsoft, Meta, and Apple also performed poorly, and the sluggishness of these mega-caps weighed on the stock indices as a whole.

3. High long-term interest rates and hawkish remarks by Fed officials

Although the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, which had been hovering in the 5% range since the end of last month, declined following the FOMC’s decision to keep the policy interest rate unchanged, it remains at an extremely high level in the 4.9% range.

Concerns about inflation persist, and with St. Louis Fed President Musalem and Richmond Fed President Barkin making remarks to the effect that ‘maintaining high interest rates is necessary to bring inflation down to the target,’ selling pressure increased, particularly among high-PER growth stocks.

4. Shift of funds to defensive sectors

While funds flowed out of growth and tech stocks, capital sought refuge in defensive areas such as energy, consumer staples, and healthcare.

Companies that reported strong earnings, such as Eli Lilly (LLY, +11.3%) and Walmart (WMT, +3.0%), performed solidly, contributing to supporting the indices.

This Week’s Notable Earnings and Key Economic Indicators/Events

This week is packed with earnings announcements from major companies that will significantly determine the direction of the stock market, as well as the release of macroeconomic indicators.

[Earnings Schedule for Notable Companies]

Following last week, many companies will announce their earnings this week.
Of particular note is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) on Tuesday the 3rd. Coming after last week’s Intel shock, the market is keenly interested in the earnings results and outlook for its competitor, AMD.

Please see below for details.

＜今週の主要・注目企業決算＞
2日（月）:
🅱️マリオット
🅰️アップル、パランティア、オン・セミコン、クロロックス
3日（火）:
🅱️ファイザー、ショッピファイ
🅰️AMD、スーパーマイクロ、アムジェン、ブッキング
アリスタ・ネットワークス
4日（水）:… https://t.co/RgYOl2LyL4

— アメリカ企業リサーチラボ (@US_Research_Lab) November 1, 2026

[Notable Economic Indicators and Events]

November 2 (Mon): October ISM Manufacturing PMI
November 3 (Tue): September JOLTS Job Openings
November 4 (Wed): October ADP National Employment Report, October ISM Services PMI
November 6 (Fri): October US Employment Report (Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings)

The employment report on Friday the 6th is the most important event for gauging the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Market expectations point to a moderate recovery and steady growth in non-farm payrolls, with the focus shifting to the growth in average hourly earnings (inflationary pressure) and the trend in the unemployment rate (around 4.2%).

The most notable theme this week: Polarization of AI/semiconductor demand and selection based on the real economy

The most notable theme this week is “the polarization (selection) phenomenon in the AI/semiconductor market and the authenticity of real demand.”

As seen in Intel’s sharp decline last week, the phase where “anything in semiconductors or tech gets bought” has completely ended.

Market participants are currently rigorously selecting companies based not on mere expectations of an AI boom, but on whether they are “actually monetizing and generating cash” and “what the divergence is between demand for data centers and demand for PCs and smartphones.”

The earnings reports from Apple (AAPL) on the 2nd, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) on the 3rd, and Arm (ARM) and Qualcomm (QCOM) on the 4th will serve as a litmus test to verify how much AI demand is contributing to hardware sales and earnings.

If a slowdown in demand is confirmed, there is a risk of further corrections across the tech sector; conversely, if they show solid performance, it could lead to an improvement in the overall market, so caution regarding sector-wide volatility is necessary.

Advice and points of caution for Japanese investors

① Accumulation investment via NISA (setting up accumulation for the Tsumitate Investment Quota and Growth Investment Quota)

[Advice] Do not be swayed by market fluctuations; continue to “calmly make fixed-amount purchases.” For those investing in index funds linked to the S&P 500 or total US stock market (including All Country World Index), you must not stop your contributions or sell off your holdings due to concerns over short-term market declines. The strength of dollar-cost averaging lies in the ability to “buy more units at a lower price” with the same set investment amount when the market falls. A temporary decline in net asset value due to a tech stock correction serves as a source of future profit in long-term wealth building.

② US Individual Stock Investment (Growth Investment Quota and Taxable Accounts)

Short-term market turmoil is unavoidable, but there is no need to fear if you practice appropriate risk management based on performance. Clearly separate the roles of “NISA for long-term growth” and “individual stocks for agile movement,” and continue to build your assets steadily.