They Thought This Chip Stock Could Hit $120. It Went All the Way to $354
Susquehanna set a bold price target on a NAND flash controller maker after a strong earnings beat, but what actually happened to the stock over the next year made that target look almost embarrassingly cautious.
One year ago on Nov. 3, 2025, Susquehanna took a look at the third quarter Silicon Motion (NASDAQ:SIMO) had just reported and raised its outlook. The firm kept its Positive rating and lifted its price target to $120 from $95. On the last trading day before the call, the NAND flash controller maker had closed at an adjusted $96.82.
From that close through Oct. 29, 2026, Silicon Motion gained 135.23%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) rose 12.8% over the same dates. At its high the stock reached $354.28, about 195% above Susquehanna’s target.
So the call was bullish, and the stock still ran far beyond it.
Why Susquehanna Raised Its Target
Silicon Motion had just beaten expectations, posting non-GAAP EPS of $1 against an estimate of 80.71 cents on revenue of $241.999 million. Susquehanna raised its estimates after that report and set a 2027 forecast built on two things: more sources of revenue and rising operating margins.
Put simply, a company moving beyond consumer controllers into enterprise, automotive and AI storage should keep more profit from each dollar it sells. Susquehanna made the call by itself. No other firm made the same move that day.
Three Earnings Reports That Rewrote the Math
The target was gone within three months. When Silicon Motion reported on Feb. 3, 2026, the stock was at $138.58, even though Q4 EPS of $1.26 missed expectations of $1.2983. Full-year 2025 revenue grew a modest 10.2%. Nothing yet pointed to a breakout.
The April 28 report changed that. First-quarter revenue rose 105.5% to $342.1 million. Management also said its MonTitan enterprise controller would enter volume production ahead of plan, with ramps aimed at five tier-one cloud providers. The stock traded at $183 that day. NAND makers were moving away from boot drives and consumer markets, and Silicon Motion was filling the space they left.
The growth kept coming. Second-quarter revenue rose 127%. On Aug. 13, the company raised $1.15 billion in 0% convertible notes, up from an initial $800 million. Then third-quarter revenue reached $560.22 million, up 131.5% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $4.35 beat the $3.33 estimate. GAAP operating margin rose to 29.0% from 22.4%, and fourth-quarter guidance calls for a non-GAAP operating margin of 36% to 37.0%. Those are the broader revenue sources and rising margins Susquehanna described, coming faster than its forecast assumed.
A Peak Far Past the Target, Then a Sharp Pullback
The rally overshot. From the $354.28 high, the stock has dropped to $206.28 as of market open on Monday, Nov. 2, about 40% below the peak. The risks behind the decline are on the record. The company spent $256.1 million in operating cash during the third quarter while building inventory.
Embedded eMMC and UFS sales fell 10% to 15% from the prior quarter as rising memory prices hurt consumer devices. A $78.0 million investment loss cut GAAP EPS to $1.91. Analysts haven’t backed off. The current count shows three Strong Buy ratings, eight Buy ratings and one Hold rating, with an average price target of $357.73.
Verdict: Nailed It
Susquehanna called the direction correctly and named the right drivers. Its Positive rating held through a 135.23% gain, far ahead of SPY’s return over the same stretch. The $120 target was simply too conservative for a company that went on to double its revenue. Investors who went with the rating were paid off, even though the target turned out to be too low.
Where Silicon Motion Stands Now
The stock trades at $209.71, inside a 52-week range of $79.13 to $354.28, with a market cap of roughly $7.14 billion and a forward P/E of about 16. Management guides fourth-quarter revenue to $588 million to $616 million and expects 2027 revenue to grow at least 40%.
Bull case: Automotive, boot drive and MonTitan wins have extended backlog and visibility, and margins are still rising.
Bear case: The inventory build is using cash, and a weaker NAND market could pressure the consumer business faster than the enterprise wins can make up for it.
On the evidence so far, the bulls have the stronger case. Is a forward P/E of about 16 a fair price for a company guiding to 40% growth next year? If the fourth quarter comes in within the guided margin range and operating cash flow turns positive, that low multiple will be hard to justify. If cash burn keeps growing, the decline has room to run.
The lesson for the next call you see: When an analyst raises estimates on a company that is changing its business mix, the rating is the signal, and the price target is often the first number to go.
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