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BOJ to Sell ETFs at About 10 Billion Yen Per Day: 2.6 Times Book Value, Approximately 2.46 Trillion Yen Annually at Market Value—Verifying Japanese Stock Supply and Demand …

*This article is based on data published as of November 1, 2026. Sources for the figures are summarized at the end. Figures marked as [Estimate] are the author’s calculations and are not official figures.

Introduction: Is ‘Selling Out in 43 Years’ Fast or Slow?

On October 30, 2026, the Bank of Japan announced at its Monetary Policy Meeting that it would increase the pace of selling its holdings of ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). The annual sales amount will increase from the previous level of approximately 330 billion yen to approximately 860 billion yen. Both figures are on a ‘book value basis,’ and the change will be implemented starting in January 2027.

Simply put, the sales pace will increase by about 2.6 times, and the number of years to sell off the holdings will shrink from over 100 years to the 40-year range (calculated in Chapter 5 of this article). However, for those who are accumulating index funds linked to the Nikkei 225 or TOPIX through NISA or other means, the concern may be: ‘Will this cause Japanese stocks to fall?’ or ‘Does this affect my accumulation?’

In this article, focusing on primary sources such as the Bank of Japan’s official statements, the ‘Report on Current Account Balances and Reserve Balances,’ financial statements, and Japan Exchange Group (JPX) statistics, I will verify this decision with numbers from the following three perspectives:

  1. What is the scale of the sales when viewed at ‘market value’ rather than ‘book value’?

  2. How much is it per day, and how does it compare to the market’s trading value?

  3. What should individual investors keep an eye on?

1. Reviewing the Details of the Decision

First, let’s organize the facts stated in the October 30 official statement, ‘On the Conduct of Monetary Policy.’

  • The policy interest rate (uncollateralized overnight call rate) was kept unchanged at around 1.25%. The vote was 8 to 1. Member Takada proposed a hike to around 1.5%, arguing that the underlying inflation had reached the target and that the economy had entered a phase where the pace of approaching the neutral interest rate should be accelerated, but the proposal was rejected.

  • The review of the ETF sales pace was decided unanimously.

  • The sales amount is approximately 860 billion yen per year (book value). The ratio of sales to the total market trading value will be increased to approximately 0.1%, up from the approximately 0.05% level decided in September 2025.

  • According to the footnotes, the scale of 860 billion yen was calculated using the ‘market-to-book ratio’ of ETFs sold by the BOJ during the same period as the trading value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market from January to September 2026. Converting to market value at the same ratio, it amounts to approximately 2.46 trillion yen per year.

  • Implementation begins in January 2027. As before, the BOJ can temporarily adjust or suspend sales within the annual pace depending on market conditions.

Furthermore, in the Outlook Report (Basic View) released on the same day, the BOJ indicated its judgment that the underlying inflation rate of consumer prices is ‘at a level generally consistent with the 2% price stability target.’ Regarding the outlook for consumer prices, it stated that ‘the upside risk is greater.’ The acceleration of ETF sales can be seen as a decision made within the flow of this ongoing normalization of monetary policy (this is the author’s interpretation).

2. The Difference Between ‘Book Value’ and ‘Market Value’ is the Core of This Issue

There is a reason why the BOJ presents ETF sales figures in ‘book value.’ The BOJ records ETFs on its books using the ‘cost method,’ which is the price at the time of purchase. However, Japanese stocks have risen significantly since the period when the BOJ was buying ETFs in large quantities. Therefore, the difference between the amount on the books (book value) and the amount that can be sold on the market now (market value) has become very large.

According to the BOJ’s fiscal year 2025 financial statements, the book value and market value of the ETFs are as follows:

As of the end of March 2025

  • Book value: 37.1861 trillion yen

  • Market value: 70.0574 trillion yen

  • Unrealized gain: 32.8712 trillion yen

End of March 2026

  • Book value: 37.1214 trillion yen

  • Market value: 94.1871 trillion yen

  • Unrealized gain: 57.0657 trillion yen

*According to the notes in the financial statements, the book value in this table is the value of the trust assets (on a contract basis) and does not necessarily match the value on the balance sheet.

The market value increased by approximately 24 trillion yen in one year, reaching about 2.54 times the book value [estimate].

Based on this difference, we will compare the old pace with the new pace.

  • Old pace (decided in September 2025): Approximately 330 billion yen per year (book value). At the time, the BOJ explained that this would be equivalent to approximately 620 billion yen when converted to the market value as of the end of March 2025.

  • New pace (decided in October 2026): Approximately 860 billion yen per year (book value). When converted to market value using the ratio from January to September 2026, it is approximately 2.46 trillion yen per year.

A simple comparison of 620 billion yen and 2.46 trillion yen makes it look like about 4 times. However, these two use different price levels for conversion. The old pace was converted using the ratio as of the end of March 2025 (approx. 1.88 times), while the new pace was converted using the ratio from January to September 2026 (approx. 2.86 times), and the difference (approx. 1.52 times) is mainly due to the rise in stock prices [estimate]. If adjusted to the same price level, for example, if the old pace is converted at 2.86 times, it becomes approximately 940 billion yen, and the new pace of 2.46 trillion yen is about 2.6 times that [estimate]. In other words, the multiplier due to the policy change is about 2.6 times even when viewed at market value, and the difference from ‘about 4 times’ is due to the conversion difference caused by the stock price rise.

Even so, there is significance in looking at it at market value. This is because the amount of selling that will actually enter the market is expected to be on the scale of 2 trillion yen per year from 2027 onwards (this will fluctuate depending on future stock prices).

Calculating back from the BOJ’s notes, the market-to-book ratio of ETFs sold from January to September 2026 is approximately 2.86 times (2.46 trillion yen ÷ 860 billion yen) [estimate]. It is calculated that selling 1 yen worth of ETF book value results in approximately 2.86 yen worth of selling in the market.

3. Are they really selling: Verifying with the Ten-Day Report on Business

Even if the BOJ says it has ‘started selling,’ is the balance really decreasing? We tracked the book value balance of ETFs using the ‘Ten-Day Report on Business’ published by the BOJ every 10 days.

ETF book value balance by time point

  • December 31, 2025 (before the start of sales): 37.1862 trillion yen

  • End of March 2026 (financial results): 37.1214 trillion yen

  • September 30, 2026: 36.9558 trillion yen

  • October 20, 2026: 36.9421 trillion yen

The decrease from the end of 2025 to the end of September is approximately 230.4 billion yen [estimate]. Since 9 months at a pace of 330 billion yen per year is about 247.5 billion yen, it appears to be proceeding generally within that range. However, the decrease in book value in the ten-day report may include factors other than sales, and is not necessarily the sales amount itself.

In the fiscal year 2025 financial results, out of the 1.7409 trillion yen in ETF operating profit/loss, 1.6336 trillion yen was from dividends, etc., and 107.3 billion yen was ‘sales profit/loss’ from sales between January and March 2026. Since a profit of 107.3 billion yen was generated against a book value decrease of about 64.8 billion yen, it is calculated that it was sold at about 2.7 times the book value [estimate: a rough calculation assuming the decrease in book value is the amount sold]. For the BOJ, selling ETFs is also a process of ‘gradually realizing unrealized gains’.

4. Is about 10 billion yen per day a large amount?

This is the main point. Let’s divide the new pace of 2.46 trillion yen at market value by the number of business days in a year. Assuming 245 business days, it comes to about 10 billion yen per business day [estimate].

We compare this to the market trading value. According to JPX, the daily average trading value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market (domestic common stocks) for the first half of fiscal year 2026 (April-September) was 10.9291 trillion yen. September was 9.3334 trillion yen, which was below the first-half average.

This generally matches the ‘about 0.1% of trading value’ indicated by the BOJ. However, the BOJ’s standard is the ‘entire Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market from January to September 2026,’ and since the denominator used here (April-September, domestic common stocks) differs in both period and scope, it is only a guideline. In other words, it is an image of the BOJ supplying about 1/1000th of the amount exchanged in the market every day as a seller.

Opinions are divided on how to evaluate this ‘1/1000th’.

  • View that it is small: It is a small scale relative to the daily trading value. The BOJ itself also explains that previous sales have proceeded ‘smoothly without having a major impact on the market.’ Also, a mechanism remains in place to temporarily adjust or stop sales when the market is in turmoil.

  • View that it cannot be ignored: Much of the amount traded every day is the same investors repeatedly buying and selling. On the other hand, the BOJ’s selling is a ‘one-way sale’ that continues for decades. The amount of 2.46 trillion yen per year will not be absorbed unless someone buys more than that.

It is impossible to conclude which is correct with current data. The author has not confirmed any official analysis that quantitatively shows how much the sales have affected stock prices.

5. Re-verifying the ’43 years’ figure

Finally, let’s verify the number of years, ’43 years.’ Dividing the book value of 36.9421 trillion yen as of October 20, 2026, by the new pace of 860 billion yen per year results in about 43 years, and dividing by the old pace of 330 billion yen results in about 112 years [estimate]. This is a very simple calculation that does not take into account sales during 2026 or future pace changes.

What to note here is that 43 years is the number of years counted by ‘book value.’ If stock prices rise, the market value of sales will increase even if the same book value is sold. Conversely, if stock prices fall significantly, the market value of sales will decrease.

So, what is the current market value of the ETFs held? The BOJ officially shows the market value only at the time of financial results and interim financial results, and the latest official figure that can be confirmed is 94.1871 trillion yen as of the end of March 2026. Applying the average ratio of ETFs sold from January to September (about 2.86 times) to the book value of 36.9558 trillion yen at the end of September results in about 106 trillion yen, but this is not the market value as of the end of September, but merely an estimate evaluated at the average price level from January to September [estimate: not an official figure]. Note that when comparing official figures, the market value of ETFs held by the BOJ as of March 31, 2026, of 94.1871 trillion yen accounts for about 8.04% of the market capitalization of domestic stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market on the same day (about 1,171.2976 trillion yen) [estimate: author’s calculation]. This ratio compares the scale of the two amounts and does not mean that the BOJ directly holds 8% of the stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market. For the market value as of the end of September, we must wait for the announcement in the BOJ’s interim financial results (last year it was November 26, 2025).

In any case, the BOJ remains a major shareholder of Japanese stocks even after starting sales. The author perceives the 43-year time horizon as a length that could overlap with the investment period of someone who is about to start a savings plan (this is an interpretation).

Implications for individual investors: What to keep an eye on

Based on the figures so far, I will organize the points that I think are important (all are interpretations and do not recommend buying or selling).

  1. Look at the multiplier and the amount separately: It is natural to look at market value when considering the impact on the market, but the multiplier resulting from the policy change is approximately 2.6 times when compared at the same price level. The market value amount (about 2.46 trillion yen per year) varies depending on the stock price level.

  2. Keep the benchmark of ‘about 10 billion yen per day, approximately 0.1% of trading value’ in mind: While the scale may look small on a daily basis, the selling will accumulate in one direction for decades. One way to process discourse—whether it claims that a sharp drop is ‘the Bank of Japan’s fault’ or conversely that ‘there is no impact’—is to weigh it against both this scale and the cumulative effect.

  3. The documents to check are publicly available: Anyone can verify the trends in ETF book value through the Bank of Japan’s Ten-Day Report (every 10 days), the market value through the Bank of Japan’s financial statements, and the trading value through JPX’s monthly statistics. Whether the sales pace will be reviewed again at the next policy meeting can also be confirmed in the published statements.

  4. Do not underestimate or overestimate the impact: The structure of the Nikkei Stock Average or TOPIX indices themselves will not change. On the other hand, the extent to which long-term selling affects supply and demand has not been confirmed at this time, and this article does not make any definitive claims regarding that.

Source (Date accessed: November 1, 2026)

Disclaimer

This article is intended to provide information based on published materials and does not recommend the buying or selling of specific financial products or investment decisions. Figures marked as [Estimate] are calculated by the author based on certain assumptions and are not official figures from the Bank of Japan or other institutions. The content of this article is based on information available at the time of writing and may change thereafter. Please make final investment decisions at your own risk.

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