What role did the Canada-U.S. trade war play in some key midterm races?
A truck crosses from Ontario to Michigan on the Gordie Howe International Bridge. Five of the tossup states that were up for grabs in the Senate all trade billions annually in goods and services with Canada.Carlos Osorio/Reuters
In Tuesday’s midterm elections across the United States, Democrats were victorious in flipping both the House of Representatives and Senate, putting pressure on President Donald Trump’s second administration, which has been mired by international tensions, including the trade war with Canada.
Five of the tossup states that were up for grabs in the Senate – Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Texas and Kansas – all trade billions annually in goods and services with Canada and are where the trade war has caused economic strain. They became major battlegrounds for candidates in the lead-up to election day.
A report by policy analysts at Advancing American Freedom found that trade between Canada and the U.S. fell by US$50-billion in the past year.
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Since January 2025, tourism from Canada has dropped across the U.S. by about 24 per cent, according to Statistics Canada, with Forbes estimating that this cost America about US$4.5-billion last year. A study of cellphone activity data by the University of Toronto places the travel decline as high as 42 per cent, accounting for drops in business travel to metropolitan areas and transport traffic crossing the border.
Here is a look at how tariffs are affecting some of the states that are most vulnerable to trade relations with Canada.
Michigan
Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic Senator-elect for Michigan.Brian Snyder/Reuters
Senate winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Senate incumbent: Gary Peterson (D)
House of Representatives in 2026: Democrats leading as of Wednesday afternoon
House in 2024: Republican majority
Annual trade with Canada: US$64.7-billion
As the epicentre of Mr. Trump’s trade war with Canada, Michigan’s automobile and steel industries have been hit hard by tariffs over the past year. Ontario and Michigan together produce 22 per cent of North America’s vehicles. However, increased production costs caused by U.S. tariffs targeting Canadian steel and aluminum have led to significant declines in trade.
In 2025, Michigan was responsible for about 11 per cent of the total national trade decline to Canada as exports from Michigan fell to US$20.9-billion from US$24.4-billion in 2024, while the state also lost more than 15,600 jobs.
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Trade tensions also hit tourism from Canada, with Michigan seeing about an 18-per-cent drop in visits by car last year, according to Statistics Canada. The University of Toronto’s study on cellphone data shows cities with close ties to the auto industry, including Flint, Grand Rapids and Detroit, all had visits fall from between 41 per cent to more than 50 per cent.
Tariffs featured highly in both campaigns for the Democratic and GOP Senate candidates. Republican Mike Rogers released an ad last month denouncing Mr. Trump’s tariffs while drinking a well-known Canadian beer, Labatt Blue, despite the President personally backing him. Abdul El-Sayed, the winning Democrat, also ran on an anti-tariff campaign, appearing at a rally with former president Barack Obama, who mocked Mr. Trump’s tariff war with “evil empire” Canada.
Maine
Troy Jackson, the Democratic Senator-elect for Maine.Robert F. Bukaty/The Associated Press
Senate winner: Troy Jackson (D)
Senate incumbent: Susan Collins (R)
House in 2026: Democrats leading as of Wednesday afternoon
House in 2024: Democratic majority
Annual trade with Canada: US$5.4-billion
The Senate race in Maine also focused on tariffs. The Republican incumbent Susan Collins successfully lobbied Mr. Trump’s administration last month to lift 50-per-cent tariffs in nine product categories. This included seaweed, a multibillion-dollar industry with Canadian ties through New Brunswick’s Aqua Veggies Ltd. However, Ms. Collins’s efforts were not enough, as the long-time senator who had held her seat since 1997 lost to Democratic candidate Troy Jackson.
Mr. Trump did replace the levies with new ones of equal value on other goods, including waste products. Agriculture accounted for 30 per cent of the $1.3-billion in exports to Canada from Maine in 2025. According to Statistics Canada, imports to Maine from Canada dropped 8 per cent between January 2025 and August 2026, the most recent period for which data is available. Tourism to Maine from Canada also took a hit, with Statscan finding a 35-per-cent drop in visits by car in 2025. Governor Janet Mills attributed the decline directly to the tariff war.
Ohio
Sherrod Brown, the Democratic Senator-elect for Ohio.Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
Senate winner: Sherrod Brown (D)
Senate incumbent: Jon Husted (R)
House in 2026: Democrats leading as of Wednesday afternoon
House in 2024: Republican majority
Annual trade with Canada: US$33.9-billion
After losing his seat to Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024, Democrat Sherrod Brown was victorious Tuesday night, returning to the Senate for Ohio. A notable opponent of the 1993 North American free-trade agreement, Mr. Brown ran on an anti-tariff campaign in the midterms, calling the 50-per-cent levies on Canadian goods “idiotic” and “even more of a disaster.”
Ohio and its manufacturing sector have been particularly exposed to Canadian countertariffs. Exports from Ohio to Canada also declined by 7 per cent and imports declined by 2.4 per cent since January 2025. Ohio cities highly linked to the manufacturing sector, including Toledo, Dayton and Columbus, are all down in visitations from Canada by more than 45 per cent.
Texas
James Talarico, the Democratic Senator-elect for Texas.Brandon Bell/Getty Images
Senate winner: James Talarico (D)
Senate incumbent: John Cornyn (R)
House 2026: Republicans leading as of Wednesday afternoon
House in 2024: Republican majority
Annual trade with Canada: US$68.99-billion
Democrat James Talarico made history in Texas on Tuesday night, becoming the first blue candidate to win a Senate seat in the state since 1988.
Texas’s manufacturing industries, with a strong presence in the automotive, aerospace and oil refining sectors, have been exposed to the tariff war, with half of the state’s exports going to Canada. Imports to Texas from Canada have decreased by 5 per cent since January 2025.
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported from a survey this year a positive impact from tariffs on the states’ imports and selling prices. But the survey also said manufacturers have been disproportionately affected, with 40 per cent reporting that tariffs hurt them, such as through increased input costs and selling prices. Mr. Talarico has advocated for a full repeal of the tariffs, linking them to the affordability crisis and calling them “corrupt.”
Cellphone data from the University of Toronto showed a decrease in visits to major cities such as Houston, Austin, Dallas and San Antonio of between 42 per cent and 52 per cent in 2024 and 2025.
Kansas
Adam Hamilton, the Democratic Senator-elect for Kansas.Jim Vondruska/Getty Images
Senate winner: Adam Hamilton (D)
Senate incumbent: Roger Marshall (R)
House 2026: Republican majority projected
House in 2024: Republican majority
Annual trade with Canada: US$4.3-billion
Adam Hamilton also made history on Tuesday, becoming the first Democrat elected to the Senate for Kansas since 1932. Unlike Republican incumbent Roger Marshall, who supported Mr. Trump’s tariffs, Mr. Hamilton ran on a campaign that challenged the trade war with Canada, which he said targeted Kansas farmers and aircraft manufacturer Bombardier Inc.
Wichita has been the U.S. headquarters for the Montreal-based aircraft company since 2022, employing more than 3,000 U.S. workers and contributing to the state’s export of US$309-million to Canada in aircraft and parts in 2025. Last year, Wichita saw a decrease of more than 43 per cent in visits from Canada, according to cellphone data, while Kansas’s capital city, Topeka, had a 32-per-cent drop in visitors.
Mr. Hamilton said tariffs drove up production costs for farmers. A report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture said that 700 farms in Kansas had to close last year.