[November 10] Today's Stock Market Report: Nikkei Average Reclaims the 60,000 Yen Milestone with a 1,684 Yen Surge

You can look back at the daily market just by reading this!
You will see the strategy for tomorrow!

※Updated daily!
I also write analysis articles on individual stocks. Please check those out as well.

The “AI Semiconductor Revival & US-Iran Negotiation Hopes” that clawed back over 3,000 yen in 2 days: SoftBank Group soared 13.8%, KOKUSAI hit the daily limit high, and JT rebounded. No blind spots in the AI bubble.

• Nikkei Stock Average Closing Price : 60,459.58 yen (+1,684.08 (+2.87%))

• TOPIX : 3,893.71 points (+75.55 (+1.98%))

• Trading Value (TSE Prime) : 9.015554 trillion yen

• Number of advancing stocks: 1203 / Number of declining stocks: 328 / Unchanged stocks: 20

• External market environment: US NY Dow up over $1,100, hopes for US-Iran negotiations lead to a drop in crude oil prices, AMD, Broadcom, and Micron rose, Nvidia fell due to an internal investigation

• Notes: Fast Retailing, TDK, and Ibiden rose. On the other hand, Kikkoman, Toyota, and Orix fell.

1. Market Close: Reclaimed the 60,000 yen milestone with a temporary surge of over 1,900 yen! A fierce counterattack that recovered over 3,000 yen in just 2 days since the “3,643 yen crash” on the 6th

The Tokyo stock market on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, followed the lead of the US stock market from the previous day, where the NY Dow surged over $1,100 and the Nasdaq Composite Index and semiconductor stocks rose significantly. From the opening, a fierce wave of buying flooded in, centered on AI and semiconductor-related stocks. The Nikkei Stock Average, which had rebounded sharply by 1,340 yen the previous day, further expanded its gains immediately after the opening today, and powerfully recovered the psychological milestone of “60,000 yen” for the first time in 2 business days. During trading hours, there were moments when the gain compared to the previous day exceeded 1,900 yen.

At high price levels, profit-taking sales against the recent sharp rebound appeared, but the buying momentum for AI-related stocks did not wane throughout the day, and the market ended the day maintaining its high level until the close. The closing price of the Nikkei Stock Average was 60,459.58 yen, up 1,684.08 yen from the previous business day (+2.87%), achieving a significant consecutive rise for the second business day. Combining the previous day (+1,340.73 yen) and today (+1,684.08 yen), the total rise reached “3,024.81 yen,” a phenomenal V-shaped recovery that regained more than 80% of the drop from the record 3rd largest crash (3,643 yen drop) recorded last weekend on November 6 in just 2 days.

Meanwhile, TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index), which is composed of a wide range of stocks on the TSE Prime Market, also continued to rise powerfully, following the 12th largest rise in history (+110.17 points) from the previous day. The closing price recorded 75.55 points higher than the previous business day (+1.98%) at 3,893.71 points, raising its level to just before reclaiming the 3,900-point milestone.

The trading value on the TSE Prime Market reached 9.015554 trillion yen (estimated trading volume of 3.02634 billion shares), making for active trading that broke through the 9 trillion yen milestone.

Looking at the internal structure of the market, “nearly 80% of stocks on the TSE Prime Market rose”, and in terms of sector stock price indices, buying spread to a wide range of stocks, with “24 out of 33 sectors rising (9 sectors fell).” Hopes for progress in negotiations between the US and Iran eased excessive caution regarding the Middle East situation, and international crude oil prices fell, which brought a tremendous sense of relief to the entire market as inflation concerns receded. SoftBank Group, which had been left behind by the wave of high-tech rebounds until the previous day, soared 13.8%, pushing the Nikkei Average up by 381 yen on its own. In addition, semiconductor manufacturing equipment maker KOKUSAI ELECTRIC, which announced good financial results, hit the daily limit high with a 14.3% rise, and JT (Japan Tobacco), which had crashed for two consecutive days due to Russian business issues, rebounded sharply following speculation that the Japanese government would start negotiations. It was a day where the clearing of bad news and the re-evaluation of good performance progressed all at once.

2. Mechanism of the Market Surge and 60,000 Yen Reclamation: “Lower Oil Prices and Eased Inflation” due to Hopes for US-Iran Negotiation Progress and Total Buyback of AI Semiconductors

Why did the Nikkei Stock Average, which saw moments of sluggishness in the afternoon session after rising 1,340 yen the previous day, gain even more momentum today to surge over 1,900 yen and easily break through the 60,000 yen milestone? We explain the driving force that linked from the US market to the Asian market.

① “Hopes for US-Iran Negotiation Progress” and Lower Oil Prices that called for a “US NY Dow rise of over $1,100”

In the U.S. stock market the previous day (the 9th), all three major indices recorded significant gains. In particular, the NY Dow showed a sharp surge of over $1,100 from the previous business day, and the Nasdaq Composite Index also saw a substantial rise.

The biggest positive factor supporting this strong rise in U.S. stocks from a macro perspective is the expectation of easing tensions in the Middle East. Until now, from October to early November, WTI crude oil had soared to over $100 and Brent crude to over $115 due to military conflicts in the Middle East and concerns over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering fears of reignited inflation and prolonged interest rate hikes by central banks. However, the previous day, as expectations spread that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran would progress toward resolving the situation, crude oil prices clearly turned downward. With the excessive caution regarding price increases (inflation) easing due to lower oil prices, expectations for a global improvement in business sentiment rose, and in the U.S. market, representative cyclical stocks such as construction machinery giant Caterpillar and consumer/cloud giant Amazon.com were bought strongly.

② Rebound of the U.S. semiconductor sector overcoming individual negative news for Nvidia (internal investigation)

Also, important changes were seen in the U.S. high-tech and semiconductor sectors. Regarding NVIDIA, the absolute king of AI semiconductors, the stock fell sharply due to aversion to uncertainty surrounding an internal investigation. In previous market conditions, if Nvidia had collapsed significantly, the entire semiconductor sector would have been hit by panic selling, but in the U.S. market the previous night, strong buybacks entered AMD (Advanced Micro Devices), Broadcom, and memory giant Micron Technology, which had been excessively sold off the previous week, and the semiconductor sector as a whole maintained a significant gain.

With the confirmation of a move to buy back oversold semiconductor stocks in general without being dragged down by the individual noise of Nvidia alone, during today’s Asian trading hours, the South Korean stock market (KOSPI) and the Taiwan Weighted Index both rose. Adding to this tailwind of higher Asian stocks, confident buybacks flowed into AI and semiconductor stocks from the opening in the Tokyo market.

3. Market Internal Structure: SoftBank Group alone “pushed up by 381 yen”! Complete revival of AI semiconductors and the severe contrast of earnings stocks

Examining the internal market today, where the Nikkei Average rose by over 1,900 yen at one point and continued to rise by 1,684 yen at the close, it is clear that the cast of leading players has changed dramatically from the previous day (the 9th).

Change of leading players seen in the Nikkei Average contribution ranking

・Top positive contribution group (AI/semiconductor giants that lagged yesterday exploded!) 1st place: SoftBank Group: A massive surge of [+13.8%] from the previous day! It pushed up the Nikkei Average by [+381 yen] with just one stock! 2nd place: Advantest: A complete turnaround from the sluggish recovery of the previous day, showing a strong and significant continued rise 3rd place: Tokyo Electron: Significant continued rise following U.S. semiconductor gains and Asian stock gains

The three core AI semiconductor stocks, which were pointed out as having “sluggish recovery/remained unsold” during yesterday’s rebound phase, monopolized the top 3 in the ranking today and completely led the recovery to the 60,000 yen level!

・Top negative contribution group (Earnings expectations not met/Automotive pause): 1st place: Kikkoman: Fell as upward revision did not reach market expectations 2nd place: Bandai Namco Holdings: Profit-taking/adjustment selling after earnings announcement 3rd place: Orix: Soft performance following earnings announcement Others: Weak movement in some automotive stocks like Toyota Motor, which had surged last week.

The market’s underlying strength that reclaimed “3,000 yen” in 2 days and its firmness in the high price range

When the Nikkei Average fell by 3,643 yen last Friday, November 6th, the market broke below the 60,000 yen mark and sank to 57,434 yen. However, it recovered about 3,000 yen (3,024 yen) at once in just two business days, yesterday (+1,340 yen) and today (+1,684 yen). Yesterday’s afternoon session was pushed down by “profit-taking by investors who bought at the 57,000 yen level,” narrowing the gains by nearly 700 yen, but today, even after hitting a high of over 1,900 yen, it did not collapse significantly, and supported by strong buying interest in AI-related stocks, it continued to fluctuate in the high price range of the low 60,000 yen level until the close. About 80% of the stocks on the Prime Market rose, highlighting the breadth of the buying base and the strength of the energy.

4. Sector/Industry Trends: “24 out of 33 industries rose” Electronics, Machinery, Banks, and Textiles led by Toray made breakthroughs, while Foods and Other Financials fell due to earnings

Looking at the industry-specific stock price indices, “24 out of 33 industries rose,” while “declines were limited to 9 industries.” While the AI/semiconductor-related sector and the banking sector, which welcomed the improvement in business sentiment, led the market, some domestic demand/financial sectors whose earnings did not meet the market’s high expectations fell.

【Rising Sectors: Electric Appliances, Machinery, Banks, and “Textile Products” that jumped on intraday earnings】

• Electric Appliances & Machinery: Following the flow of significant gains in semiconductor stocks such as AMD, Broadcom, and Micron in the U.S. market the previous night, buying entered all at once for semiconductor manufacturing equipment stocks such as Tokyo Electron, Advantest, and KOKUSAI ELECTRIC, as well as electronic component stocks such as Murata Manufacturing.

• Banking (4th in industry-specific growth rate): Due to the decline in crude oil prices and the easing of inflation and Middle East concerns, expectations for a soft landing of the global economy (improvement in business sentiment) rose, so strong re-evaluation buying flowed into bank stocks that had been sold off last Friday due to “fears of economic deterioration due to slowing AI investment.”

• Textile Products: Toray, which announced its earnings at 1:00 PM (13:00) after the afternoon session opened, was well-received and surged, pushing up the entire textile products sector.

【The Truth Behind Declining Sectors: “Consensus-miss selling” of earnings stocks becomes a weight on the sector】

On the other hand, many of the 9 sectors that declined did not suffer from a deterioration in overall sector business conditions, but rather saw their indices dragged down by “declines in major stocks that announced earnings today or after the close yesterday.”

• Other Financing Business: The post-earnings decline of major stock ORIX pushed down the entire sector.

• Land Transportation: Logistics giant AZ-COM Maruwa Holdings was sold off following its earnings announcement, which acted as a drag.

• Foods: Kikkoman and Ajinomoto were sold off because they “failed to meet the expectations of prior market consensus forecasts,” despite having raised (upwardly revised) their full-year earnings forecasts.

• Transportation Equipment: Profit-taking sales entered some automotive stocks today, such as Toyota Motor, which had soared over 16% last Thursday due to an upward revision, leading to a soft performance.

5. Thorough In-Depth Analysis of Notable Individual Stocks

Today, we will thoroughly explain the trends of the AI investment giant that led the Nikkei Average’s reclamation of 60,000 yen, the semiconductor equipment stock that hit the daily limit high with a 66% increase in net profit, the high-dividend stock that made a dramatic recovery amid speculation of government negotiations, and the food major that was sold off despite an upward revision.

① SoftBank Group (9984): +13.8% Massive Surge

In today’s Tokyo market, SoftBank Group reigned supreme as the top contributor to the Nikkei Average’s gains, releasing overwhelming upward energy.

Behind the sharp rise are two major catalysts: the appreciation of core assets and intense short covering.

The first factor is the rebound in the stock price of its core asset, UK-based Arm Holdings. As a wave of buying back spread across semiconductor-related stocks in the US stock market the previous day, the strong rise in Arm shares served as a direct supporting factor.

The second factor is the reaction in supply and demand following the recent sharp drop and sense of being left behind. The company’s stock had plunged over 10% last weekend (November 6) due to concerns over data center construction, hitting a new year-to-date low, and was left in negative territory even during the market rebound the previous day (the 9th) as no buying back occurred. With the stock at such an extremely oversold level, the tailwinds of rising US tech stocks and Arm shares combined, causing short covering by short sellers and dip buying to explode all at once.

Due to this surge, the company’s stock alone pushed the Nikkei Average up by 381 yen, becoming the biggest player in powerfully leading the market’s recovery to the 60,000 yen milestone.

② KOKUSAI ELECTRIC: Daily Limit High +14.3%

KOKUSAI ELECTRIC, a major semiconductor manufacturing equipment manufacturer boasting the world’s top market share in batch deposition systems, was bought up to the daily limit high level of +14.3% (+700 yen, closing price 5,576 yen) compared to the previous day, ending the trading session.

The background to the buying up to the daily limit high is the resonance between the disclosure of remarkable positive earnings and the tailwind of the external environment accompanying the rise in US semiconductor stocks.

In the consolidated financial results for the April-September period (first half) announced by the company, net profit achieved a phenomenal 66% year-on-year increase. Sales of deposition equipment for cutting-edge DRAM and logic semiconductors, as well as NAND flash memory, performed extremely well, powerfully boosting earnings.

This impeccable positive earnings report was compounded by a wave of buying back following the rebound of semiconductor-related stocks such as Micron Technology in the US stock market the previous night. With strong performance and favorable market conditions perfectly aligned, investor buy orders concentrated all at once, leading to a development where the stock raced to the daily limit high.

③ JT (Japan Tobacco Inc.): Significant Rebound

JT, which had been subjected to panic selling due to the issue of the seizure of its Russian business, including a daily limit low sell order at the end of last week (the 6th) and a 16% massive crash yesterday (the 9th), rebounded strongly today to 5,500 yen, up 231 yen from the previous day, and normal trading was established during market hours for the first time in 3 business days.

The background to the dramatic halt in the decline and subsequent rebound, following the sharp drop, includes the progress in pricing in negative factors as well as the emergence of expectations for diplomatic involvement by the Japanese government. Regarding the company, selling pressure had continued for two days due to reports of an order from the Russian government to nationalize and effectively seize a total of seven local related companies (covering almost the entire Russian business, equivalent to about one-quarter of consolidated profits), raising concerns about the loss of the earnings base and associated dividend cuts. However, with excessive pessimism and negative factors already significantly priced into the stock following the sharp decline up to the previous day, reports emerged of
“the Japanese government embarking on diplomatic and asset protection negotiations with the Russian side”. This led to the rise of views that the worst-case scenario of total confiscation without compensation might be avoided or mitigated. With the uncertainty regarding the future easing, short-term buybacks and dip-buying focused on value flowed in all at once, resulting in a rapid reversal of the stock price.

④ Ajinomoto: -1.9% decline

Ajinomoto, a major player in food and advanced semiconductor materials, saw its stock pushed down by 1.9% from the previous day (-85 yen, closing at 4,345 yen), despite announcing an upward revision to its full-year earnings forecast.

The semiconductor materials business (fine chemicals), including ‘Ajinomoto Build-Up Film (ABF),’ which is essential for AI servers and PC CPUs, performed extremely well and strongly drove the company’s overall performance. However, on the other hand, profit growth in the “frozen food business,” which was affected by rising raw material prices and logistics costs in the core food division, was limited. Although the full-year earnings forecast itself was revised upward, profit-taking selling became dominant, similar to Kikkoman, due to the view that it
did not meet the expectations of the prior market consensus forecast.

6. Future Outlook: The litmus test of the most watched macro indicator, the ‘US October CPI,’ and the solid floor supported by strong earnings (upward revisions) of Japanese companies!

In today’s Tokyo market, the Nikkei Average reclaimed the 60,000 yen milestone with a 1,684 yen gain, recovering over 3,000 yen in two days.

Regarding the market trend from tomorrow onwards, I will provide an outlook based on two axes: the most important inflation indicator to be announced in the US, the ‘October Consumer Price Index (CPI),’ and the ‘evaluation of domestic corporate earnings,’ which is currently peaking.

The biggest macro focus ahead: Announcement of the US ‘October Consumer Price Index (CPI)’

The ‘decline in crude oil prices’ accompanying expectations for progress in negotiations between the US and Iran is a powerful positive factor that eases concerns about future price increases (inflation). However, if the
actual value of the US October CPI announced this time exceeds the prior market forecast (indicating persistent inflation), concerns about ‘additional interest rate hikes’ by the Fed will strengthen again, which could suppress the upside of high-tech stocks, making it the most important point to watch.

Supply and demand environment after the Nikkei Average recovers to 60,000 yen: Selling on rallies in the high price range and support from the ‘earnings-driven market’

Although the Nikkei Average recovered the 60,000 yen milestone today, there is also the aspect of a ‘sharp reaction (autonomous rebound)’ from the record crash at the end of last week (3,643 yen drop), so at the 60,000 yen level, the situation is such that selling on rallies and profit-taking are likely to occur. On the other hand, through the April-September earnings announcements of domestic companies currently peaking, the ‘soundness of Japanese companies’ fundamentals (strength of earning power)’ is being clearly demonstrated once again. If the

‘upward revisions’ to full-year earnings forecasts following earnings announcements spread to a wider range of companies, it will absorb short-term selling on rallies and become a powerful support factor for Japanese stocks as a whole.

Portfolio strategy after reclaiming the 60,000 yen milestone

The greatest truth proven by today’s market is that “the drop below 60,000 yen (57,434 yen) at the end of last week was indeed a historic bargain, and with just one trigger—the easing of Middle East risks (expectations for US-Iran negotiations, lower oil prices)—Japanese stocks have the overwhelming resilience to recover more than 3,000 yen in just two days.” That is.

In particular, the fact that SoftBank Group, which had been a weight on the market, soared 13.8% today and led the Nikkei Average along with Advantest and Tokyo Electron, means that the excessive panic selling regarding the AI and semiconductor sectors has passed. Furthermore, as seen with KOKUSAI ELECTRIC hitting the daily limit high with a 66% increase in net profit, the evaluation of semiconductor equipment stocks accompanied by actual demand and profit growth is extremely robust.

On the other hand, the fact that Ajinomoto and Kikkoman “fell despite announcing upward revisions because they did not meet market expectations” shows that the current market is scrutinizing not only the superficial presence of upward revisions but also the content of the business (such as the strength of ABF and the increase in costs for frozen foods) and the strength or weakness relative to consensus very severely.

In the short term, caution is required regarding temporary profit-taking due to the reaction to the 3,000 yen surge over two days and nervous fluctuations surrounding the results of the US October CPI. However, fundamentals are solid, with the expected ROE of Japanese companies reaching 11.5%, and the decline in crude oil prices is the greatest tailwind for Japan’s domestic demand and manufacturing industries. Carefully selecting and holding stocks that showed clear surprises in their earnings like KOKUSAI ELECTRIC and Toray, bank stocks that are being re-evaluated due to improved business sentiment, and high-quality AI/semiconductor leading stocks that have created dips will be the key to winning in the second half of November as the market aims for further highs after establishing itself in the 60,000 yen range.