[Gold Price Plummets 4.55%] Why does it fall if it's a safe-haven asset? Asset protection strategies considering US interest rates, yen depreciation, and gold ETFs

Many people likely have the impression that “gold is a safe-haven asset, so you don’t have to worry even if stock prices fall.”

However, in the week leading up to November 13, 2026, gold futures prices fell by 4.55%.

The closing price on the 13th was $3,879.70 per troy ounce.

It was a tough week for gold, as concerns over US inflation, rising interest rates, and a stronger dollar all converged.

Unlike stocks, gold is not influenced by corporate performance, and it basically carries no credit risk from an issuer like government bonds do.

Even so, its price can drop significantly.

So, is gold really a safe-haven asset?

And is this current decline a buying opportunity?

In fact, what is important when considering gold investment is not just whether the price goes up or down.

It is about clarifying “why you hold gold.”

It is about clarifying “why you hold gold.”

In this article, we will start with the sharp drop in gold prices in November to organize the relationship between interest rates, the dollar, and inflation.

Furthermore, in the paid section, we will examine simulations of yen-denominated gold prices, comparisons of domestic ETFs, asset allocation combining stocks and gold, and specific examples of increasing holdings and rebalancing.

We have aimed to create content that is useful for both those who are about to purchase gold and those who already own it.

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1. Gold price fell 4.55% in a week. What happened?

First, let’s organize the current market situation.

Gold futures prices on November 13, 2026, ended the day at $3,879.70, up $1.30 from the previous day.

There was a slight rebound on the 13th alone.

However, it was a 4.55% decline for the week.

This was the largest weekly decline since early June.

Silver futures also fell 5.35% in the same week.

This decline was primarily driven by a combination of the following factors:

• Concerns that US inflation will be prolonged

• Expectations of additional interest rate hikes by the Fed

• Rising US Treasury yields

• Downward pressure on gold prices due to a stronger dollar

• Position adjustments in the futures market

Of particular note is US monetary policy.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) released on November 13 showed a 0.3% increase in October compared to the previous month.

Although this was below the market expectation of 0.4%, it was not enough to conclude that inflation has sufficiently settled.

In the gold market, expectations of additional Fed rate hikes are weighing on prices.

This raises a question.

If inflation continues, it would seem that gold should be bought as an inflation hedge.

So why did it fall?

2. Why gold falls due to inflation despite being resistant to it

Gold has long been noted as an asset that protects purchasing power over the long term.

Unlike paper currency, central banks cannot freely increase the supply, and there are constraints on its supply.

Therefore, in phases where the purchasing power of currency declines, demand for gold can increase.

However, there is an important pitfall here.

Rising inflation and rising gold prices are not necessarily the same thing.

The reason is the central bank’s response to inflation.

For example, if inflation remains high, the Fed may raise policy interest rates or maintain high interest rates.

When interest rates rise, the appeal of interest-bearing assets such as government bonds and deposits increases relatively.

On the other hand, gold itself does not generate interest.

In other words, the interest that cannot be earned by holding gold becomes larger.

This is called “opportunity cost.”

For example, in an environment where interest rates are near zero, the disadvantage of losing interest by holding gold is small.

However, in an environment where a yield of about 5% per year can be obtained from highly safe bonds, the reason for holding gold, which does not generate interest, is questioned again.

Of course, gold has a different role than bonds.

However, this is the reason why rising interest rates are a headwind for gold prices.

3. What is the “real interest rate” that influences gold prices?

What is particularly important in gold investment is the real interest rate.

Simply put, the real interest rate is the interest rate that takes inflation into account.

Roughly speaking, we consider it as

Real interest rate ≒ Nominal interest rate – Expected inflation rate

.

For example, if

, then the real interest rate is about 2%.

On the other hand,

then the real interest rate will be approximately negative 1%.

This difference affects the appeal of gold.

When real interest rates are high, the benefits of holding interest-bearing assets tend to increase, which acts as a headwind for gold.

Conversely, in phases where real interest rates decline, the relative appeal of gold may increase.

However, real interest rates alone cannot explain gold prices.

Gold purchases by central banks, geopolitical instability, capital inflows into ETFs, and the dollar exchange rate also have an impact.

The important thing is not to buy gold by looking only at the inflation rate, but to consider the combination of which direction inflation and interest rates are moving.

4. Is gold really a “safe-haven asset”?

Let’s clarify the term safe-haven asset here.

Gold is generally treated as a safe-haven asset or an asset for times of crisis.

However, that does not mean that “the price will not fall.”

Gold has the following characteristics:

Strengths of gold

• Not directly affected by the bankruptcy of a specific company

• Demand may increase in phases where anxiety about currencies and financial systems rises

• May move differently from stocks and bonds

• Can be used for long-term asset diversification

Weaknesses of gold

• Does not generate interest or dividends

• Can be sold off during periods of rising interest rates

• Prices can fluctuate significantly in a short period

• Yen-denominated investments are also affected by exchange rates

• ETFs and investment trusts incur holding costs

In short, rather than being a safe asset with small price movements, it is more appropriate to consider gold as a diversification asset with risks different from other assets.

In fact, gold can fall by more than 4% in a single week, as it did this time.

Holding gold instead of an emergency fund requires careful consideration.