Swing trading strategy with backtest PF 1.71. The result for the first week of virtual operation was -115.5 yen
Hello, this is Kabu-Ken!
Starting November 9th, I began a forward test of swing trading using TradingView’s paper trading.
I have previously conducted backtesting in Python, and the verification from February 2, 2026, to October 15 yielded 64 trades with a PF of 1.71. However, this is a performance confirmed using historical data.
Therefore, I have started verification with 1 million yen in virtual funds to see if similar results can be obtained in the future market.
This time, I will look back on the first week from November 9th to the 13th.
1. The first week’s result was -115.5 yen
First, here are the results for the paper trading account.
As of 15:51 on November 13th
Initial capital: 1,000,000 yen
Valuation assets: 999,884.5 yen
Cumulative realized profit/loss: -844 yen
Unrealized profit/loss: +728.5 yen
Change from initial capital: -115.5 yen
In terms of amount, the result was almost flat.
However, this -115.5 yen cannot be evaluated as the performance of the swing strategy itself. This is because the first week included trades resulting from checking order methods and operational errors.
This figure is merely a record of the entire paper account.
2. I stumbled on order operations right away
On November 9th, the first day I started paper trading, a problem occurred.
I planned to purchase Mitsui Fudosan at the opening, but I didn’t know the order method and couldn’t purchase it at the expected time.
Furthermore, I stumbled on setting the order quantity, such as buying 1 share when I intended to buy 100 shares.
In the process of trying out order operations, trading history for practice purposes was also generated. The account’s realized profit/loss for the first day was -900 yen.
In backtesting, the program processes trades at a set quantity and price when conditions are met.
On the other hand, in paper trading, I have to check the order details and operate it myself.
Creating trading rules and executing those rules correctly were separate issues.
3. First profit taking! But it wasn’t according to the rules
On November 12th, I was able to take profit for the first time after starting paper trading with Itochu Corporation.
Itochu Corporation (8001)
Purchase date: November 10th
Purchase price: 2,368.5 yen
Sale date: November 12th
Sale price: 2,424.5 yen
Quantity: 1 share
Realized profit/loss: +56 yen
I was happy that I made a profit, but when I checked the selling decision later, I found a problem.
I had mistakenly identified the profit-taking price as 2,423.5 yen.
In this strategy, I adopt a rule of setting the loss width decided at the time of purchase as 1R and taking profit at 2R. However, this sale was not a settlement made after correctly recognizing that price.
Even if a profit is made, if it deviates from the rules, a problem arises in comparison with the backtest.
While recording this trade as a realized profit in the paper account, I will distinguish it as a trade with rule deviations in the strategy evaluation.
4. Holding 3 stocks over the weekend
On November 13th, I purchased 100 shares each of Mitsui Fudosan and Honda.
Including JFE, which I had purchased earlier, I am holding 3 stocks as of the weekend.
Mitsui Fudosan (8801)
Purchased 100 shares on November 13 at 13:00
Purchase price: 1,616.5 yen
Valuation price: 1,623 yen
Unrealized profit/loss: +650 yen
Honda (7267)
Purchased 100 shares on November 13 at 13:00
Purchase price: 1,841 yen
Valuation price: 1,841.5 yen
Unrealized profit/loss: +50 yen
JFE Holdings (5411)
Purchased 1 share on November 9
Purchase price: 1,811.5 yen
Valuation price: 1,840 yen
Unrealized profit/loss: +28.5 yen
The total unrealized profit/loss for the 3 stocks was +728.5 yen.
The reason only 1 share of JFE was purchased is due to a quantity setting error on the first day. Mitsui Fudosan and Honda were purchased in 100-share lots.
However, just because the quantity is now correct does not mean that trading was conducted under the same conditions as the backtest.
It is also necessary to confirm the differences between the data available at the time of purchase, the judgment time, and the assumed order price.
5. What was learned in the first week
Based on this week’s results, I have organized the issues into three points.
① Set order quantities correctly
I intended to buy 100 shares but ended up buying 1, and trades for operation verification occurred.
A procedure to check the quantity before placing an order is necessary.
② Manage profit-taking and stop-loss prices correctly
I misidentified the profit-taking price for Itochu Corporation.
It is necessary to save the 1R determined at the time of purchase and manage it so that the numerical value does not change afterward.
③ Distinguish between backtesting and virtual operation
In backtesting, trading conditions are applied to assumed prices, but in paper trading, differences arise in order times and execution prices.
Furthermore, there is no guarantee that executions in paper trading will be fulfilled in the same way in a real securities account.
I will verify the validity of the trading conditions themselves and the accuracy of the mechanism for executing those conditions separately.
6. Monitoring policy for November 16
Next Monday, I will continue to monitor the three stocks held over the weekend.
Mitsui Fudosan (8801)
Honda (7267)
JFE Holdings (5411)
All of these are held in paper trading.
In addition to the profit-taking and stop-loss levels determined at the time of purchase, I will check if other sell conditions are met.
New monitoring candidates have not been determined at this time. I will check the conditions for the daily and 4-hour charts, and if candidates are found, I will record them again.
The verification rules are summarized in this article.
https://note.com/eng_kabulab/n/ndca8820ae463
7. Can the backtest PF 1.71 be reproduced?
The result of the paper account for the first week was -115.5 yen.
However, it is impossible to judge the quality of the strategy based on this one week alone.
In the first place, this week involved trial order operations and deviations from the rules, so verification under the same conditions as the backtest was not sufficiently performed.
Thinking as an engineer, I believe I am at the stage of stabilizing the execution procedures and recording mechanisms before evaluating the trading logic.
From next week onwards, I will record not only profitable trades but also losses and order errors separately.
What points do you prioritize when comparing backtest results with actual trading results?
I would appreciate any advice, such as on the reproducibility of trading conditions or ways to reduce order errors.
It has only just begun, but I will proceed with the verification little by little.
This was Kabu-Ken!
*This article is a record of personal investment research. It does not recommend buying or selling any specific stocks. The trades and profits/losses posted are the results of paper trading using virtual funds on TradingView and are not the performance of actual securities account operations. Past backtest results do not guarantee future profits or executions.