China Is ‘Working Furiously’ to Grow Its Fleet Ahead of a 2027 War—And That’s a Clear Threat to America
It’s become apparent that a trade war may not be the only kind of conflict China plans on waging against the United States. In the wake of reports that the Chinese Navy is preparing to invade Taiwan by 2027, the U.S. Navy has been ramping up the readiness of its Battle Force, which has not seen major combat in decades.
In spite of being larger and more technologically advanced, the U.S. naval fleet may be in trouble. On the other side of the Pacific, China has ushered in an unprecedented naval expansion that makes it a real challenger to America’s tradition of naval dominance. Here’s how the two countries stack up, and what military strategists think will be the tipping point in a potential wartime scenario.
How Likely Is a U.S.-China War?
In 2021, Adm. Phil Davidson, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, testified to Congress that China was preparing to invade Taiwan by 2027. Such a move would place the United States and the People’s Republic of China on a collision course, given that the United States has extended security guarantees to the island, also known as the Republic of China. In 2022, President Biden stated unequivocally that the U.S. would defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.
While U.S. intelligence did not confirm definitive plans from the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to launch this attack, it appears the Chinese Navy is gathering the resources to do so. That knowledge spurred U.S. military brass to take counteraction. The “Davidson Window,” as the period after 2027 became known as, quickly became a major milestone in U.S. military planning. Both the U.S. Navy and PLAN are racing to be ready for a war that could come in as little as three years. And in an era where it takes five years to build an aircraft carrier, three years is not much time at all.
Comparing Forces: The U.S. Navy vs PLAN
China has been steadily expanding its fleet, but strength can be about more than just numbers. Here’s what we know about how its forces compare to America’s.
Aircraft Carriers
The most powerful ships of the U.S. and Chinese navies are aircraft carriers. The U.S. Navy fields a total of 11 carriers, with six assigned to the Pacific Fleet. Each is equipped with an air wing of more than 70 aircraft, consisting of 40–44 F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and F-35C strike fighters, backed up by E/A-18G Growler electronic attack aircraft, E-2D Hawkeye airborne early warning and control aircraft, and up to a dozen utility and anti-submarine helicopters. The result is a highly capable aerial fighting force supported by more than 100 years of institutional experience operating aircraft carriers.
Currently, China operates three carriers: Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian, armed with Shenyang J-15 “Flying Shark” strike fighters. These early ships are both combat vessels and a learning experience for the PLAN. “After commissioning the Liaoning in September 2012, China has embarked on a long march of prototypes, aiming for something that may match America’s supercarriers,” says naval analyst Craig Hooper of The Themistocles Advisory Group, which focuses on national security. “Once the design is settled, China will likely pump out carbon copies quickly, expanding their fleet.” This would likely leave China with at least five carriers, and perhaps as many as six.
China’s carriers can only host about two-thirds the number of aircraft as their American counterparts, however, and PLAN is still developing the aircraft that would make up a well-balanced carrier air wing. “While China may have a few big, modern aircraft carriers in the fleet by 2027, the aircraft aboard will still be finding their sea legs,” says Hooper. “The Chinese equivalent of a tightly integrated set of E/A-18G Growlers, E-2D Hawkeyes, and F-35s—necessary to understand the maritime battlespace—won’t be quite ready for prime time.”
Cruisers and Destroyers
The most numerous ships in both fleets are cruisers and destroyers, surface ships designed to escort larger ships, hunt submarines, or form surface action groups to aggregate offensive firepower. Cruisers and destroyers are usually armed with one or two guns, between 64 and 122 missile silos, helicopters, anti-submarine torpedoes, and close-in defensive weapon systems consisting of both missiles and guns.
The U.S. Pacific Fleet of 2027 will have approximately 52 cruisers and destroyers. The service is retiring its cruisers, which are worn out and in need of replacement after an average 30+ years of service. Cruisers hold a staggering 122 missile silos per ship, meaning that in their absence, the Navy will only have destroyers with 80–96 missile silos each. That number also assumes the Navy will replace each outgoing cruiser with a destroyer.
Each of the remaining Zumwalt- and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers are more capable than their Chinese counterparts, with 50 percent more missile silos per ship and the ability to conduct anti-surface, anti-submarine, anti-air, and even anti-satellite combat. The Pacific Fleet will also be home to two of the three Zumwalt-class stealth destroyers, Michael Monsoor and Lyndon Johnson, each armed with 12 hypersonic missiles.
The PLAN has a similarly sized fleet, which according to the Pentagon’s 2023 report on Chinese military power stands at 50 surface ships, but less firepower overall. The ships include eight Renhai-class cruisers, each with 112 missile silos, and Type 052C and Type 052D guided missile destroyers, but each destroyer carries between 56 and 64 missile silos, fewer than their American counterparts. The weapons and sensors on these ships have also not been tested under combat conditions the way American systems have, whereas the latter have proven highly effective in recent actions in the Middle East against kamikaze drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles.
Submarines
The U.S. Pacific Fleet’s submarine force will have about 23 submarines by 2027, including Los Angeles, Seawolf (all three), and Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines. It also includes two guided missile submarines, Ohio and Michigan, each capable of carrying a staggering 154 Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles. The U.S. Navy is also building a new variant of the Virginia-class submarines, known as Block V, that can carry an additional 28 cruise missiles or a handful of Conventional Prompt Strike hypersonic weapons.
China, on the other hand, currently fields 53 nuclear and conventionally powered attack submarines. Chinese submarines are generally considered one or two generations behind their American counterparts, but thanks to the war in Ukraine, they are expected to catch up fast. Russia is trading military technology to China in return for logistical support for its war in Ukraine. Hooper believes this assistance will soon help China churn out advanced subs at a fast clip.
“By 2027,” Hooper says “[China] will be working furiously to appropriate Russian undersea know-how and integrate it all into their ongoing protoype and experimentation efforts. Again, it’ll be a race to see if China can find a base model it is happy with, so it can really apply its industrial strength in modernizing the fleet.”
The Deciding Factor in War
Of course, the U.S. Navy has one other advantage in such a conflict: “America will not fight China alone,” says Hooper. Allies including Japan, South Korea, and Australia will pose serious challenges for China at sea.
The Japan Maritime Self Defense Force has a fleet of 36 destroyers, including two destroyers, Izumo and Kaga, being refitted to operate F-35B Lightning II fighters. It also has a fleet of 24 diesel electric attack submarines. South Korea has a fleet of 23 attack submarines and 13 destroyers. Another important ally, Australia, has six submarines and three destroyers. Almost all of these ships, aircraft, and submarines use American weapons, sensors, and communication networks, increasing their interoperability with the U.S. Navy.
Another benefit of America’s alliances is a network of ports and bases across the region that can support American ships in wartime. “Right now, America’s Pacific allies are positioning themselves to support forward deployment of American naval units. In Australia, with mutual collaboration enhanced through the AUKUS (America-United Kingdom Australia) agreement, Australian workers will help keep U.S. subs forward deployed,” Hooper says. “Japan has taken the lead on providing superior maintenance and support for forward-deployed U.S. ships. Both countries could support the U.S. fleet in times of increased tension.”
China, on the other hand, has just one ally worth mentioning in the Asia-Pacific region: Russia. Russia’s fleet has declined dramatically since the end of the Cold War, its weapons, sensors, and networks are incompatible with Chinese ones, and its ports are far from the front line. Sino-Russian cooperation is relatively recent and limited to elementary sailing exercises. “Russia and China may sail together, but they don’t fight together, and, by 2027, they are unlikely to have forged a truly collaborative warfighting force at sea,” says Hooper.
Ultimately, there’s reason to be optimistic about U.S. naval defenses in spite of criticism. While the number of American ships has remained fairly flat even while China’s fleet multiplies, we have other tactical advantages. America’s technological edge is a qualitative one that makes each Navy warship superior to its Chinese counterpart. And America’s appeal to other countries—based on common values and common interests—means it has friends in its corner where China does not.
In short, don’t count America out yet.
Kyle Mizokami is a writer on defense and security issues and has been at Popular Mechanics since 2015. If it involves explosions or projectiles, he’s generally in favor of it. Kyle’s articles have appeared at The Daily Beast, U.S. Naval Institute News, The Diplomat, Foreign Policy, Combat Aircraft Monthly, VICE News, and others. He lives in San Francisco.