Your wallet, your vote: The essential economy voter guide for 2024
What’s the issue?
The U.S. has the largest economy in the history of the modern world. Precisely: $28 trillion. That’s twenty-eight-thousand billion dollars worth of goods, small business revenues, worker wage and productivity. And we’re all a part of it.
So when you hear that the economy is the No. 1. issue for voters, it means practically nothing. It also means everything. But essentially what we’re talking about are the prices of things and whether people can consistently afford to buy and pay for the things they need.
When it comes to the 2024 election, voters seem primarily concerned about the price of groceries, gas, housing (which includes the cost of rent, mortgages and/or the interest rate you’ll be charged if you buy a house), the availability of good-paying jobs and healthcare costs. Immigration and abortion are also considered top economic issues for voters this year. And of course, recent action for the courts is putting student loan debt cancellation back on the table as a top election issue.
Why does it matter? What’s at stake?
A healthy economy affects the quality of life each of us can enjoy. More economic opportunity can also address inequities such as poverty and homelessness — as long as companies pay fair and just wages, which doesn’t always happen.
Since 1990, for example, the increase in net income—profit—for corporations has significantly outpaced the increase in median household income, which remained stagnant until recently.
It’s worth stressing that the government (and that includes the president) doesn’t have a lot of direct influence over the economy. They can’t tell oil companies to charge less for gasoline or force Middle Eastern nations to pump more crude. They can’t force General Mills to put more cereal in the box or, sadly, make your landlord disappear.
However, the occupant of the Oval Office does have a few tools at their disposal. For example:
- They can work with Congress to lower taxes or raise the federal minimum wage (which has not happened since 2009).
- For adherents of supply-side policies, better known as trickle-down economics, cutting regulations or taxes on businesses and wealthy individuals can theoretically bring down prices as well.
- Theoretically. And because presidents appoint the Federal Reserve Bank’s board of governors, they can coordinate with the Fed to raise or lower interest rates to influence inflation rates.
- The president can work with agencies that they oversee to modify or eliminate regulations to lower costs. For example, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development can make it easier for builders to get financing to build new homes; the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid can loosen eligibility requirements so that more people qualify for low-cost health insurance, as was the case under the Affordable Care Act. Under the Trump Administration, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration expedited processes to approve the first COVID vaccines; the Biden Administration capped the cost of insulin to $35.
Abortion access is also a significant economic issue in this election, as it allows people to make choices about their bodies that line up with their financial circumstances and goals.
- High childcare costs, for example, eat up a huge portion of household income, especially for low- and middle-income families. This makes it harder for parents to afford everything else housing, groceries, and healthcare, leaving many struggling to make ends meet. The average cost of childcare national is north of $11,000 per year.
Current status
Numerically speaking, the U.S. economy is a mixed bag. Here’s a snapshot of key economic indicators compared to four years ago:
- Unemployment rate: Compared to four years ago, when the world was gripped by a pandemic, the unemployment rate dropped 72%, from 14.8% in 2020 to 4.2% this year. Note: For some groups, like African Americans, unemployment remains higher than the national average.
- Median annual household income: Grew by 17.31% to around $82,000 and the
- Median hourly wage: Increased by 10.75%
- Housing costs have skyrocketed:
- Median monthly rent rose by 28.4% to $1,521
- Median home price increased by 28% to $412,300
- Overall inflation: rose 141.67% over the past four years, although the rate at which inflation is rising has slowed
- Healthcare premiums and poverty rate: Remained steady compared to 2020
Where do the presidential candidates stand on this issue?
Vice President Kamala Harris (Democrat)
The Democratic nominee is running an abbreviated campaign since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Early on, she was criticized for offering few policy proposals, including on her official campaign website and sitting for few unscripted media interviews.
But it should come as no surprise, then, that several of the policies that Harris has announced echo and continue many policies of the Biden Administration of which she’s been a part for that past four years.
Broadly speaking, Harris is crafting her economic program around supporting middle- and working-class families and addressing structural inequity. She has said she would crack down on price gouging to bring down the cost of living, although critics have characterized this as illegal price fixing. Harris has also proposed giving $25,000 in downpayment assistance for first-time homebuyers
Additionally, Harris proposes expanding the child tax credit to $6,000 for newborns, an increase from the current maximum of $3,600 per year per child. She has also said she wants to invest $40 billion in affordable housing initiatives, doubling the amount the Biden administration initially proposed.
Harris advocates for the reinstatement of Roe v. Wade, which provided a constitutional right to abortion care. Ensuring the right to abortion means that people can avoid the financial burdens associated with being a parent, costly medical bills, including in the event of complications with a pregnancy; additionally, abortion access gives individuals the freedom to pursue educational and career opportunities or simply live child-free if they so choose.
Donald Trump (Republican)
The Republican nominee and former president is one of those proponents of supply-side economics that we talked about earlier. His economic proposals consist of a mix of tax cuts, tariffs and continued deregulation
At the core of his program is a sweeping extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, with an even more aggressive reduction of the corporate tax rate to 15%. In doing so, he hopes to stimulate business investment and job creation, but detractors argue it could exacerbate income inequality and balloon the national debt.
Energy independence is a keystone of Trump’s economic vision. Or, in his words “drill, baby drill,” which would mean expanding domestic oil and gas production, including in protected and environmentally sensitive areas of the country.
In an extension of his trade war with China, Trump wants a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports, which he says nations will eagerly pay; economists disagree, arguing that tariffs could lead to higher prices for American consumers and could prompt trading partners to impose tariffs on American goods.
Trump has also floated the idea of exempting tips from federal income tax, for which Harris has also expressed support.
Trump has boasted about appointing the justices who overturned the Roe decision, returning the issue of abortion to the states. Trump says the issue should remain with the states and he would not sign a national abortion ban despite the fact that his base of white evangelicals would press him to do so.
Some bills and ballot measures to know
- Minimum wage. Several states will vote on ballot initiatives to lift the state minimum wage (the federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hours, but states can set limits higher), including:
- California Proposition 32: Proposes increasing the state minimum wage to $18 per hour by 2026, with annual adjustments based on the cost of living.
- Alaska Ballot Measure 1: Aims to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour and includes provisions for paid sick leave
- Massachusetts Question 5: Focuses on increasing the minimum wage for tipped employees by raising the minimum wage for these workers until it meets the state minimum wage in 2029; it also continues to permit tipping in addition to the minimum wage.
- Missouri Minimum Wage Initiative: Proposes raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour and implementing paid sick leave requirements
- Michigan Minimum Wage Initiative: This measure seeks to gradually increase the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2027
- Massachusetts: Ballot Question 3 asks voters whether rideshare drivers, such as those working for companies like Uber and Lyft, should have the right to form unions for collective bargaining. If a majority of voters mark “yes” and the measure passes, these drivers would be able to negotiate wages, benefits, and working conditions with the app companies. Massachusetts would be the first state to grant this right to ride-hailing drivers. Voting “no” means you oppose allowing these workers to have unionizing and collective bargaining rights.
- Debt Ceiling Agreement. Last year, President Joe Biden and then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy worked out a deal to suspend the nation’s debt limit and avoid a federal default or government shutdown. That plan expires Jan. 2, 2005 — before the next president is sworn in. If a deal is reached, it will go to Biden’s desk for signature but rest assured, depending on the outcome of the election, Harris or Trump will be working behind the scenes to ensure the package reflects their priorities.
Key Points for Voters
- Can the candidate implement the economic policy they’re touting, such as whether they will have support in both chambers of Congress, including a 60-vote majority in the U.S. Senate for some bills?
- Can the courts strike down a candidate’s proposal before it’s implemented? Also note, the next president will appoint dozens of federal judges and possibly one or two Supreme Court justices
- Lastly, remember, that the economy moves slowly. You may not feel the effects of a particular action for months, possibly years
Resources and Further Reading
- Kamala Harris’s and Donald Trump’s wildly different tax plans, explained (Vox)
- How Trump and Harris Compare on Economic Policy (Foreign Policy)
- Kamala Harris’s gamble (New Yorker)
- Donald Trump’s New Voodoo Economics (New Yorker)
- Marketwatch
- Planet Money
- FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data