AI’s Effect on the US Economy Will Be Wildly Uneven

One of the only things growing faster than progress in AI applications is speculation about AI’s effect on the economy. I don’t have all the answers, not by a long shot, but I do think we should expect great unevenness in adaptation, and that itself will alter our world.

To see how this is likely to play out, start with a distinction between sectors in which it is relatively easy to go out of business, and sectors in which it is not. Most firms selling computer programming services, for example, do not typically have guaranteed customers or revenue, at least for long. Employees have to deliver, or they and their company will be replaced. The same is true of most media companies: If they lose readers or customers, their revenue disappears. There is also relatively free entry into the sector in the US, due to the First Amendment.