The rentier economy should be Labour’s priority in this Budget

On-the-ground visits are a staple of electioneering across the world. We are all likely familiar with the recent photo-ops in this US election campaign – Donald Trump in McDonald’s, Kamala Harris hanging out in a barber shop in west Philadelphia. But I have been looking at presidential candidates’ campaign stops over the years to work out whether they make any difference at all to the final vote.

What is the logic, say, of Trump hitting Democrat-leaning areas? Or Harris avoiding hostile Republican seats and visiting areas where she already has a strong base? Let’s dig into the data.

To start: with 15 days to go, Trump has made eight more stops than Harris, hitting the ground and hosting rallies.

Below is an interesting chart on the positive and negative effect that visits have had on campaigns. By the end of the 2008 race, Barack Obama had made four more stops than his opponent John McCain – and there is evidence that this was impactful. The swing to Democrats in 2008 was greater in areas that he visited than in ones he didn’t. In 2012, the swing away from the Democrats towards Mitt Romney was more muted in places he visited. In short: Obama showed up and either energised voters or – in a more difficult year – softened their hostility.

In 2016, Trump held the Republican vote firmly in regions he visited on his campaign trail. Meanwhile, in these areas the Democrat vote fell more than it did nationally.

In 2020, the story was a little different. The data tells us something rather curious: where Joe Biden went, the Democrat vote share did not increase in line with national averages. In fact, it broadly fell.

Harris needs to do two things to win. First, retain counties that are running close (Erie County in Pennsylvania is paramount). Second, she needs to turn out Democrats in Democrat strongholds. Think of it like this: to win, Harris must build up the base and keep the Democrat advantage in the marginals.

But the data shows that Harris is taking a defensive approach – eight in ten of her stops so far have been to Democrat counties. This compares to six in ten by Biden in 2020, and just half by Obama in 2008.

Not only that, she’s also visiting safer counties on average than Biden did in 2020. The logic here is flimsy: the Democrats are on the back foot and they need to spend valuable time in swing counties. Playing it this safe will harm her chances.

Meanwhile, Trump is doing the opposite. He’s visiting more marginals and is pursuing a more aggressive approach than we have seen from a presidential candidate in recent history. Seven in ten of Trump’s stops have been to Democrat-voting counties. This is a stark change in strategy from 2020, when he spent a majority of his time in Republican areas.

Trump’s bullish strategy could mean that the polls are underestimating him. And his team knows it.

[See also: Any other Republican would be beating Kamala Harris]