From US$2/gallon petrol to steelworker ads, Harris and Trump focus on the economy in last lap

In the final stretch of the most consequential election of 2024, the race could boil down to who Americans trust to improve their lives and livelihoods.

The economy has consistently ranked as the No.1 issue for registered US voters over the past few years, particularly after President Joe Biden signed into law border restrictions in June to tackle migrant crossings, cooling concerns on illegal immigration.

A Gallup poll published on Oct 9 shows 52 per cent of voters say the economy is an “extremely important” issue influencing their vote – the highest level since the Global Financial Crisis. This figure hovered between 38 and 44 per cent during past presidential elections. Another 38 per cent rate the economy as “very important”.

The economic mood, however, is mixed and patchy, meaning votes will go to whichever side offers the more compelling argument. While economic data posted this past week shows solid quarterly growth and ebbing inflation, new jobs created in October fell to the lowest since 2020, after two devastating hurricanes and labour strikes.

Thus far, the economy has not featured that highly in either Vice-President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump’s messages. Both have mostly exploited emotive issues to rally their base.

For Trump, this includes stoking grievances with the establishment and scapegoating, evidenced by the inflammatory rhetoric at his Madison Square Garden rally.

The playbook for Ms Harris, meanwhile, has focused on abortion rights and safeguarding democracy. In delivering her last major speech from the Ellipse near the White House, where Trump had all but instigated an angry mob on Jan 6, 2021, to sack Congress, she wanted to remind voters of his attempt to subvert democracy.

A strategy of appealing to their base of confirmed supporters, however, might have reached its natural limits in this incredibly close election. The two campaigns have hit a brick wall, with both essentially tied in the seven swing states that could tilt the race – North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada. While Trump has the edge in more states, none command more than a 2.2 percentage point advantage, according to FiveThirtyEight polls on Nov 2.

Is Trump better for the US economy?

With just two days to go, the window to convince in-person voters is closing. Finishing strongly will require winning over any remaining undecideds, most of whom share a preoccupation with the economy. Both sides have widely divergent messages on this count.

Declaring that her first goal as President would be to bring down the cost of living for Americans through tax cuts and Medicare expansion to cover home care at her Nov 2 rally at Atlanta, Georgia, Ms Harris repeated the same message that same day later in Charlotte, North Carolina.

In this final week, her campaign has pushed out ads showcasing she understands the challenges facing steelworkers and smallholders, and emphasising her support for working-class American.

Meanwhile, Trump has seized on the lacklustre jobs data, calling them “depression numbers” in his trailblazer through Gastonia and Greensboro in North Carolina on Nov 2. Economists doubt his election promise to cut petrol to US$2 a gallon (S$0.70 a litre), repeated over 20 times during the campaign, is realistic.

The question is how much traction these last-dash efforts would have.

Ms Harris has commendably narrowed Trump’s lead on the economy in the past month by drawing up a policy platform for the middle class and families, with a vision and plan for an Opportunity Economy. Her initial focus on fighting price gouging, enhancing access to affordable housing and making homecare affordable for the elderly, resonated strongly and brings the Democrat Party back to the middle on the economy

But Trump continues to trend better than Ms Harris on the economy. Fifty-two per cent of respondents to a national New York Times/Siena College poll of the nation’s likely electorate taken in late October say they trust Trump to do a better job on the economy compared with 45 per cent for Ms Harris.