Potential Impact of U.S. Presidential Elections on the S&P 500
Today, on 5 November, the United States is holding its presidential election, an event expected to bring significant volatility to financial markets worldwide.
According to EuroNews, market analysts are bracing for heightened fluctuations as votes are cast, reminiscent of reactions seen during events like Brexit and the 2016 U.S. election. Newsweek adds that historically, U.S. markets have shown resilience, tending to rise regardless of which candidate wins. For instance, during the 2020 election, stocks surged post-election day and continued their ascent even while election results were contested by former President Trump.
Investor’s Business Daily points out insights from Tony Roth, Chief Investment Officer of Wilmington Trust, who argues that U.S. equities may rise under either Harris or Trump, as both candidates propose economic policies that could support market growth.
On 14 October, our analysis of the S&P 500 (shown on the US SPX 500 mini FXOpen chart) highlighted three rising channels (indicated in blue), observing that:
→ these channels exhibit similar slopes and widths;
→ by connecting the high of Channel 1, peak and trough of Channel 2, and low of Channel 3, we define a broader channel (indicated in orange).
A technical review today shows the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) trading near the lower edge of the third blue channel, with additional potential support at:
→ former resistance near $5678;
→ the lower boundary of the orange channel.
As results roll in, market volatility could intensify, challenging these support levels and potentially shaping future momentum.
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