Centre forecasts record kharif crop production

The projections, the first among four annual forecasts of crops by the government, show production of cereals continue to outstrip that of other commodities, which tends to keep prices volatile.

The production of total summer-sown foodgrains, or cereals, for 2024-25 is projected to be 164.7 million tonne, which is higher by 8.9 million tonne, about 6%, compared to previous year’s kharif food grain production of 155.4 million tonne.

A series of assessments and inputs from food industry representatives for the first time, along with in-depth use of satellite and digital technologies, have yielded better information of food production, an official said on the condition of anonymity.

Lower-than-forecast output on several occasions in the past have caught markets and officials unprepared to deal with supply shocks, resulting in price spirals. The government therefore has squared up its crop assessment figures with that of private forecasters, a process known as triangulation of data.

The country is likely to produce 119.9 million tonne of rice, the summer staple, against 113.2 million tonne harvested last year, the data show. Back in 2022-23, the grain’s output was 110 million tonne.

The first June-September surplus monsoon in four years, which waters nearly half of the country’s net-sown area, has augured well for farm output, analysts said. The rains were 8% above normal this year.

Robust rains bolster farm output and rural prosperity, lifting overall consumer demand, without which the economy can’t grow fast enough.

Rice, sown in June and harvested in October, is a key cereal crop that has fuelled food inflation over the past year, although wheat and pulses drove prices more. This had led the world’s largest rice exporter, with a 40% share in global trade, to ban overseas shipments, which was lifted on September 28.

Output of maize, or corn, the main source poultry feed, apart from food, is seen jumping nearly 9.5% at 24.5 million tonne from 22.2 million tonne a year ago. A fall in maize output in 2023-24 had increased feed costs, pushing up chicken prices.

Kharif crops account for half of a year’s food supply for India. Farmers are set to also harvest 10 million tonne of groundnut oilseed, which is crushed to make cooking oil. The kharif output last year was 8.2 million tonne.

Once a net food importer, India produces surplus quantities of foodgrains to feed its 1.4 billion people and exports many commodities, but it still relies on imports to meet domestic demand for pulses and oilseeds.

“Generally, the good monsoon has helped all crops. These are the first estimates, which will be revised when harvests will be over. This year, the government used digital technologies extensively to gauge output and tallied official estimates with private forecasts,” the official cited above said.

The production of tur (pigeon pea), a widely consumed pulse variety, is expected to be 3.4 million tonne, a marginal increase over 3.2 million tonne in the previous kharif season, official data showed. The output of moong, or green gram, is likely to be 1.3 million tonne, compared to 1.1 million tonne harvested from last year’s kharif crop.

Among major commercial crops, the output of sugarcane has been pegged at 439 million tonne against last year’s 453 million tonne but industry representatives said availability will be adequate. The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers’ Association has urged the government to allow export of 2 million tonne of sugar as opening balance of the item is pegged at 8.8 million tonne.

In a recent representation, it said the minimum selling price of the sweetener, fixed by the government, has remain unchanged, while cane price, which is also decided by the government, has been increasing.