LIVE: Wall Street surges to record high on Trump election win

Donald Trump’s rapid confirmation as the next US president has boosted stocks and assets that are seen as favourable to his administration. Crypto hit a record high, Tesla (TSLA) shares were up by 13% as Elon Musk was the single largest donor to Trump’s campaign and even Trump Media (DJT) soared despite weak quarter earnings.

His “America First” agenda is set to bolster traditional industries such as construction, infrastructure, and energy.

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said:

Here are the stocks that stand to gain under a Trump 2.0 administration

Goldman Sachs (GS) has slashed its forecast for British and European economic growth next year amid fears Donald Trump will slap taxes on imported goods from around the world.

The Telegraph has the details:

The investment bank now expects the UK economy to grow by 1.4% next year — down from previous forecasts of 1.6% — with the eurozone expanding by 0.8%, a downgrade from earlier forecasts of 1.1%.

Its economists warn that more US tariffs on imports from Europe will hammer growth, particularly if the old continent retaliates with border taxes of its own.

That would knock 1% from eurozone GDP, including 1.1% from trade-dependent Germany, and 0.7% from Britain’s economy.

Some of that would be compensated for by extra spending on defence, as European nations ramp up spending to try to replace any reduced American support for Ukraine’s defence against Vladimir Putin’s invasion.

Christian Schulz at Citi said the impact will come not only from tariffs on goods which European businesses sell to Americans, but also from those which they send to China, which faces a mooted 60% tariff on the products it sells to the US.

“EU goods exports were worth 3.1% of EU GDP in 2023, with a trade surplus worth 1.1% of GDP. Germany and Italy would be more exposed than the EU average; France and Spain less,” he said.

Here’s a look at what’s happening in UK equity markets today:

• Building materials group CRH (CRH.L) and equipment rental firm Ashtead (AHT.L), both of which have significant exposure to the US, were the top gainers on the FTSE 100.

• Russ Mould said Ashtead shares were racing ahead “on the prospect of more building work created by Trump’s desire to drive the US economy including greater manufacturing and construction work”.

• He added: “As a hirer of construction equipment, it is a direct play on hammers and tools pounding away across the country.”

• Marks & Spencer (MKS.L) jumped as it reported better-than-expected first-half profits as it said the food and clothing segments have now delivered market share growth for four consecutive years. In the 26 weeks to 28 September, profit before tax and adjusting items rose 17.2% to £407.8m, coming in ahead of consensus expectations of £361m. Pre-tax profit was up 20.4% to £391.9m.

• Lancashire Holdings (LRE.L) gained as it said gross premiums written rose 9% in the first nine months of the year to $1.7bn and announced a special dividend of 75cents per share.

• OSB (OSB.L) and Prudential (PRU.L) also advanced after results, while Burberry (BRBY.L) was boosted by an upgrade to ‘outperform’ from ‘sector perform’ at RBC Capital Markets.

• Pub chain JD Wetherspoon (JD.L) was higher after saying it was “confident of a reasonable outcome for the year” as it reported record sales but highlighted rising costs.

• Ukraine-based iron ore pellet exporter Ferrexpo (FXPO.L) surged more than 20%.

• Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Finalto, said the stock is a “Ukraine peace play”. Trump had said while campaigning that he would be able to end Russia’s war in Ukraine in 24 hours.

• On the downside, housebuilder Persimmon (PSN.L) fell as it said housing completions dipped slightly in the third quarter and warned of rising building costs heading into 2025.

• Smith & Nephew (SN.L) was knocked lower by a downgrade to ‘hold’ at Berenberg.

The latest survey from the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global showed that activity in the UK construction sector expanded for the eighth straight month in October.

However, growth eased from a two-year high as uncertainty delayed spending decisions ahead of the autumn budget.

The purchasing managers’ index for the construction sector fell to 54.3 last month from 57.2 in September, its highest rate of growth since April 2022.

The sector has been growing since March but October’s reading was well below the consensus estimate of 56.0.

ccording to S&P Global, overall new work increased at a “solid pace” during the month, though political uncertainty and subdued household demand due to cost-of-living pressures were said to have kept a lid on growth.

The euro is more than 2% down against the US dollar to $1.07.

This puts it on track for its worst day since 2016, after Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.

The single currency has also slumped against the pound, dropping 0.6pc to be worth 83.3p, amid fears of the impact of a tariff war.

Bas Kooijman, chief executive of DHF Capital, said: “The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and geopolitical tensions under Trump contributed to fears of disruptions in European trade.”

The cost of US government borrowing has risen after Donald Trump’s election victory raised concerns about higher inflation.

The yield on 30-year bonds — the return the government promises to buyers of its debt — has risen above 5% for the first time this year.

The yield on 10-year bonds — known as gilts — has risen slightly to 4.54%. It comes amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve will be forced to keep interest rates higher.

Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, said:

Landing a new job requires more than skill, experience and a strong CV to catch the eye of a recruiter. Now, AI-driven hiring platforms are in charge of who gets a job and who doesn’t. And if you don’t meet their exact requirements, you may find yourself falling short.

Businesses are increasingly relying on AI to recruit new workers. A 2023 IBM (IBM) survey of more than 8,500 global IT professionals showed 42% of companies were using AI screening “to improve recruiting and human resources”. Another report found 64% of HR managers embrace AI for tasks like screening candidates and writing job descriptions.

According to a new survey by Resume Builder, 70% of companies will use AI in the hiring process by 2025 — despite most saying it’s biased.

Hiring new workers is a traditionally long-winded process, so it’s easy to see why organisations are keen for an easier solution. There are job adverts to write, CVs and cover letters to sift through, tests to be carried out and checked, as well as dozens of candidates to be interviewed at least twice.

But experts are warning that the uptake of AI by recruiters can lead to a number of problems. Not only can these systems lead to discrimination, they also fail at finding the best candidate for the job.

Read the full article here

Shares in Elon Musk’s company Tesla (TSLA) are up 13% in pre-market trading.

It comes as the billionaire was one of Donald Trump’s more vocal supporters in the US election, and investors believe he is set to to reap the benefits.

John Plassard, senior investment specialist at Mirabaud Group, said it is worth keeping a very close eye on Tesla’s share price when Wall Street trading begins in 4.5 hours.

Plassard said:

The money markets indicate there is a 97.5% chance that the Bank of England will cut UK interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Thursday.

This would take rates down from 5% to 4.75%.

The average house price across Britain will be 23.4%, or £84,000, higher in five years’ time, according to a forecast.

Savills expects the typical property value to reach £442,000 by the end of the five-year period to 2029, from £358,000 currently.

The property firm expects house prices to increase by 4%, or £14,500, on average next year alone.

Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills, said:

Shares in Donald Trump’s social media empire have surged by over a third in pre-market trading today.

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) are up 36% in premarket trading after a volatile day yesterday.

The stock jumped after-hours after it surprised investors with a heavy loss and a fall in sales in a surprise stock market filing last night.

Donald Trump winning the US election “will adversely affect growth in Europe” analysts at Japanese bank Nomura said on Wednesday.

Nomura told clients:

The Mexican peso has fallen to its lowest level in two years as Trump declares victory and addresses jubilant supporters.

The peso tumbled against the US dollar as much as 3.5% to 20.79, the lowest level since August 2022.

It comes as the Republican has threatened to impose high tariffs on Mexican imports.

UK growth could halved in the event of Donald Trump becoming the next US president.

According to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), the protectionist measures planned by the Republican challenger for the White House would result in weaker activity, rising inflation and higher interest rates from the Bank of England.

Ahmet Kaya, a NIESR economist, said that, were Trump to go ahead with a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on goods from all other countries, the resulting trade war would lower UK growth by 0.7 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points in the first two years.

Kaya said:

NIESR has estimated that over two years the UK inflation rate would be three to four points higher while interest rates would be two to three points higher.

Following up from the below, Trump’s early gains have triggered a surge in the value of the US dollar. The greenback has jumped by around 1.5% against a basket of currencies, including strong gains against the pound and the euro.

A Trump victory leads to a stronger dollar, in many traders’ view, because some of his key policies are inflationary.

What does this win mean?

Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, explains:

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged to a record high this morning as growing confidence in Donald Trump’s return to the White House fuelled investor excitement in the cryptocurrency space.

The world’s most valuable digital asset has seen a remarkable rally, up over 8% as markets bet on Trump’s victory.

It comes as the Trump campaign positioned itself as the most pro-cryptocurrency in history, and traders expect a more supportive regulatory environment.

Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, said:

He added:

Stocks in Asia were mixed overnight, with the Nikkei (^N225) rising 2.6% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) fell 2.8% in Hong Kong, ending a three-day rally, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid the uncertainties surrounding the US election.

The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 0.1% down by the end of the session.

On Wall Street on Tuesday, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) index rose 1.2%, closing at 5,782.76, and the Dow Jones (^DJI) added 1% to 42,221.88. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped 1.4% to finish at 18,439.17.

In after hours trading, the S&P 500 on Wall Street gained 1.1% and that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average also was up 1.3%. The Nasdaq Composite was 1.1% higher.

The price of bitcoin (BTC-USD) jumped more than 8% to a record $75,535.80, as investors bet on a victory for Trump, who has expressed support for cryptocurrencies.

Bond yields also surged, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury climbing to 4.47% from 4.28% on Tuesday.

Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be bringing you all the latest market news and all that’s happening across the global economy.

Today we find out who will be the next US president will be, so it’s sure to be a busy one.

Here’s what else is on the agenda for today:

• 7am: Trading updates: TBC Bank Group, Braemar Shipping, Lancashire Holdings

• 7am: German factory orders for September

• 9am: Eurozone services PMI for October

• 9.30am: UK construction PMI for October

• 12pm: The weekly US mortgage application data

• 2.30pm: Treasury committee hearing with Rachel Reeves and top officials on the budget