Trade war, what is it good for?
Good afternoon, Crunchers. This is Mason Boycott-Owen, here with all your weekend news as Europe gets ever more worried about The Donald in the White House.
A NATION REMEMBERS: King Charles this morning led the U.K. in a two-minute silence in memory of the men and women who died serving their country. He was joined by Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and a record lineup of eight former prime ministers at the Cenotaph war memorial in London.
THINGS TO KNOW
TRADE WAR, WHAT IS IT GOOD FOR? Downing Street is “wargaming” new tariffs on U.S. goods in retaliation for Donald Trump’s “America First” trade policy, according to the Sunday Telegraph, as Europe braces itself for a new era of sweeping protectionism.
Tariffs? What Tariffs? My ace POLITICO trade colleague Sophie Inge explains why this is a big deal. TLDR: Trump could impose 10-20 percent tariffs on all U.S. imports … and America is by far the U.K’s biggest export market for goods. Therefore, panic.
**A message from McDonald’s: We’re planning to be net-zero across our UK and Ireland restaurants, operations, and supply chain by 2040. Our journey to this goal will require changes across our whole business and value chain, from how we source for our menu, to how we build and operate our restaurants. Find out more.**
I don’t answer hypotheticals: Darren Jones, Rachel Reeves’ deputy in the Treasury, was pressed on Trevor Phillips’ Sky News show for details of what the U.K. government has planned. But no dice. “I’m not a commentator, I’m a Cabinet minister,” he said. “It’s appropriate for officials to plan for different scenarios, but you are asking me to comment on sensitive hypothetical future scenarios.”
Meow: “It’s important not to put words in my mouth when the markets are watching,” Jones added.
More tariff talk: On her own Sunday morning show Laura Kuenssberg also pressed Jones on what the U.K. would do if a major trading partner put tariffs on goods. “If that situation were to arise in the future, we would of course have to respond to it,” he said, but insisted these are “private discussions” to be had inside government.
There’s always a quote: Both Kuenssberg and Phillips produced an old quote of Jones calling Trump “repugnant.” (By the standards of his Cabinet colleagues, that’s actually pretty glowing.) Jones told Laura K that it was unsurprising that as a Labour MP he has backed Labour’s sister parties, such as the Democrats in the U.S.
All friends now: Keir Starmer told Trump: “You have a friend in me” during the leaders’ call following the U.S. election, according to the Sun on Sunday. Ain’t that nice.
Are you listening Donald? The Sunday papers including the Sunday Times and the Observer report that Chancellor Rachel Reeves will use this Thursday’s Mansion House speech to the great and good of the U.K. finance world to talk up the benefits of free trade. The message: Free trade is good, my economic growth forecasts are very small, please don’t hurt them.
Prepare for the worst: Kim Darroch, the former U.K. ambassador to Washington, has written for the Observer, warning that Trump will follow through on his tariff threat and that the U.K. must be ready to stand up for itself.
Our Man(delson) in Washington: The Sunday Times reports that Peter Mandelson, the former Labour spinner, Cabinet minister and EU trade commissioner, is now the front-runner to become the new ambassador to the U.S. David Miliband, another former Labour Cabinet minister, is also on the shortlist — but was seen as the preferred option of now-ex chief of staff Sue Gray (RIP). The other two names in the frame — Catherine Ashton and Valerie Amos — were seen in No. 10 as choices better suited to a Kamala Harris presidency, the paper says.
Back-up plan: Mandelson is also still running to be chancellor of Oxford University and has given a lengthy interview to the Sunday Telegraph where he is asked about the ambassador rumors. “I’m afraid I’m not going to respond to that because nobody’s asked me. All I know is that if I were lucky enough to be elected chancellor, I would never let the university down,” he says.
Jumpscare: And look, popping up on today’s panel on Laura Kuenssberg’s Sunday show … it’s Peter Mandelson! Asked for his reaction to the U.S. election, he said: “Of course, being Peter, I immediately thought ‘what does this mean for Britain’ and I thought we’re going to be in for a relatively transactional rollercoaster ride, but that we have to decide about how we’re going to influence this presidency, what we’re going to put in to it and what we’re going to get back from it.”
Lights, camera, action: Making the most of his audition, Mandelson heaped some praise on Trump over defense spending. “That is an illustration of where Mr Trump is not always wrong,” he said, adding: “He was right about Britain and Europe and our defense spending and how we were going to secure ourselves. We needed to step up then, and we certainly need to do so now.”
Clicks and portals: Mandelson also gave his view on what his version of a trade deal with the U.S. would look like. “A different sort of trade deal. Not the sort of old-fashioned free trade agreement of goods and mortar, more sort of clicks and portals of the future,” he said.
Get on with it! The newly-minted leader of the opposition Kemi Badenoch has written for the Sunday Telegraph, calling on Starmer to hurry up and get a U.S. trade deal over the line.
The Trump whisperer: Also in the Sunday Telegraph, Nigel Farage called on Stamer to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist group in order to build ties with Trump. The IRGC hired an assassin to kill Trump during the election campaign, U.S. prosecutors believe.
Suella’s advice: Former U.K. Home Secretary Suella Braverman, an avowed Trump supporter, told Lewis Goodall’s LBC show she thinks Trump will be good for European security and that it would be in the “national interest” to give Farage a formal role as Britain’s Trump whisperer. Pressed on Trump’s previous comments about Russian President Vladimir Putin, she accused Goodall of “perpetuating the mistakes of the left,” and then got into a big shouty argument. Keep fighting the good fight, Suella.
Laughable suggestion: Darren Jones was asked on Sky News whether it would be “wise” for the Labour government to take Farage up on his offer to be an intermediary with Trump. Jones … well, he laughed quite a lot in response.
AXIS OF EVIL LATEST: The head of Britain’s armed forces has warned the new era of conflict across the world will last “decades.” Tony Radakin told the Sunday Times that the U.K. will set out its response to the evolving global security threats in the new year with its strategic defense review. The Telegraph reported Saturday that a path to increase in defense spending will be unveiled at the same time, weeks after Trump re-enters the White House.
Defense spending: Darren Jones was asked by Sky’s Trevor Phillips when Britain will actually hit the new target of spending 2.5 percent of GDP on defense — and where the extra billions will come from. “The ‘when’ question will be answered when the strategic defense review has concluded,” he said, adding that he’ll have an answer in the spring.
Trump and Ukraine: Phillips asked if the U.K. would “step up to the plate” if Trump withdraws American support for Ukraine. Jones dodged the question as it was “hypothetical.” Phillips pointed out that it isn’t that hypothetical, given everything Trump has said.
Tories on the attack: Priti Patel is back, this time as shadow foreign secretary, and was across the Sunday shows giving the government a kicking. She told Phillips that Labour needs a clearer pathway to 2.5 percent defense spending, as it cannot wait until the mid-2030s given the West needs to “unite around defense spending.”
Defense lobbying: Alan West, a former chief of the naval staff, told the Observer that the U.K. should see the Trump win as an “opportunity” for greater defense spending to get him on side.
On tour: West was also on both Laura Kuenssberg’s and Trevor Phillips’ morning shows today. He told Laura K that people are right to say we are in the most dangerous moment for many decades. “It’s the complexity of what’s going on,” he said, pointing to a war in Europe, conflict in the Middle East and instability in the Pacific, and the tension between countries like the U.K. that “want to adhere to an international system” and countries like Russia.
The end of ding-dong: He added that puting the defense review alongside the spending review next spring would means defense being dealt with in a “much more significant way than the usual ding-dong of ‘every year, how much money have we got?’”
Worst month for Russia: West said that October was the worst month of the war so far for Russia, with 1,500 people killed or wounded each day. Several publications have picked this up from the BBC.
NOT ANOTHER ONE: Tim Shipman, the Sunday Times’ chief political commentator, has another book out later this month — and this one looks to be, unsurprisingly, quite good. He says it’s his best so far … and if the serializations in this weekend’s paper are anything to go by, he could be right.
Nadine was right: Shipman’s book claims that — big reveal — Dominic Cummings was behind all those Partygate leaks to the press which ultimately ousted Boris Johnson. Cummings is alleged to have told a pal: “We could trap the f***er into lying about it? He’ll just tell everyone to just deny it all.” Machiavelli, eat your heart out.
Head in the clouds: At time of going to pixel, Cummings doesn’t seem to have responded to the allegations. Though he has been tweeting about the latency issues with communications between Earth and Mars.
Prorogation: In a deep dive into how Johnson prorogued parliament in September 2019, Shipman writes that the then-PM asked Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, not to “spook the Cabinet by talking about the litigation risk” of doing so. Cox had privately warned the PM that the Supreme Court may intervene if the prorogation went ahead.
Good lord! What is happening in there? During one frank exchange of views between Johnson and his aides, Helen MacNamara, then the deputy Cabinet secretary, felt obliged to warn the actual prime minister that if he ended up breaking the law over Brexit, his officials would down tools and actually have him arrested. This prompted a rather interesting question from Eddie Lister, Johnson’s chief strategic adviser: “Can the queen sack the prime minister?”
More where that came from: Shipman also writes that the queen once said of Johnson: “I think he was perhaps better suited to the stage.” And “one courtier” told Shipman that the Queen, in her final days, said of Johnson’s departure from Downing Street: “Well at least I won’t have that idiot organizing my funeral now.” Zing.
QUICK-FIRE CATCH-UP
SUPERMARKET’S STEEP: The post-budget lobbying is still in full swing, with supermarkets becoming the latest group to shake their collective fists at Reeves. The Sunday Times reports figures from Morgan Stanley that suggest Tesco will see its national insurance bill rise to £1 billion over this parliament following the budget’s rise in employer contributions.
Inhospitable times: The paper also says that lobbying group UK Hospitality has written to Reeves over the NI rise, warning that customers in pubs and restaurants won’t be willing to accept increased prices after previous rises from inflation and the pandemic.
No U-turns: Laura K asked Darren Jones whether the government would rethink its NI rise for employers following a “chorus of criticism” from businesses. “No,” he said, insisting that the public will recognize that “bigger businesses are more able to burden [sic] some of the contributions that we need to make to the state.”
Asda price: Jones told Lewis Goodall’s LBC show that he wants to see supermarkets keep prices low, and that they can do that because there is “fierce competition” between chains.
Le résistance: The Telegraph writes that British farmers are looking at targeting ports and withholding produce to trigger food shortages in response to Reeves’ changes to inheritance tax. “They will block every port in the U.K. if they have to,” one farmer involved in the discussions claimed.
Public backlash: It remains to be seen whether these pleas/threats will win the hearts and minds of people who don’t actually buy the Telegraph, given the lobbying effort comes, in part, from people who own multi-million-pound country estates. “I’m just an SME with turrets,” as one lobby colleague puts it drily.
What to read: The Economist’s take on the farming war is well worth a read as it asks: “why are British farmers so politically feeble?” The Fence also has a great dispatch on the ‘glitzification’ of the Cotswolds.
Taking its toll: Some new Labour MPs are struggling to adjust to the levels of abuse from the public following the budget, with some MPs refusing to hold in-person surgeries with constituents. One was found in tears in Parliament’s corridors, the Mail on Sunday writes.
BBC CUTS, CHINA’S GAIN: An interesting dispatch from Nairobi in the Sunday Telegraph on looks at how the BBC’s cuts to the World Service is seeing Britain cede ground to China and Russia in the global information war.
CLOSER TIES: Labour’s Stella Creasy has called on her party to appoint MPs to the UK-EU parliamentary partnership assembly (PPA) in order to push for closer ties with Europe following Trump’s election. The Observer has the story.
PALESTINE PROTESTS: A pro-Palestine campaign group is training its members to operate as “cells” to target British firms linked to Israel, the Sunday Times reports.
COP FLOP: Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, has told the Observer that the U.K. will redouble its efforts for international cooperation on climate change despite several hitches that have seen major leaders such as Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz and Ursula von der Leyen pull out of Cop29.
QUEEN IN THE NORTH: Deputy prime minister Angela Rayner wants to create a “council of the North” according to the Sun on Sunday. The paper notes that a Council of the North was axed in 1641 before the English Civil War.
MEDIA ROUND
Ayesha Hazarika on Times Radio (4 p.m. to 7 p.m.): Crossbench Peer Karan Bilimoria … Jessica Toale, Labour MP for Bournemouth West … Neil Shastri-Hurst, Conservative MP for Solihull West … Pete Wishart, SNP MP for Perth and Kinross-shire.
Westminster Hour (BBC Radio 4, 10 p.m.): Treasury Committee Chair Meg Hillier … Tory MP Neil Shastri-Hurst … UK in a Changing Europe Director Anand Menon … POLITICO’s Rosa Prince.
WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY 11
REMEMBRANCE: Keir Starmer attends 106th anniversary of the Armistice of 1918 in Paris.
COMMONS: Work and pensions questions, debate on rural affairs.
LORDS: Questions including emerging digital technologies, Drax power station, and the budget.
HORIZON: Jonathan Reynolds and Kemi Badenoch at the Post Office Horizon inquiry.
COP: Cop29 summit opens in Azerbaijan.
TUESDAY 12
COMMONS: Energy questions, hereditary peers bill.
LORDS: Questions including northern transport infrastructure, House of Lords reform.
COMMITTEES: Science: University and industry experts on the budget; Housing: Charities and councils on rough sleeping; Development: Doctors and charities on Gaza; Economic Affairs (Lords): Think tanks on economic inactivity.
COP: World leaders’ climate summit at COP29.
COURT: Scottish court hearing on oil and gas fields. Ruling in Dutch court case against Shell. Ruling on whether to set aside Trump guilty verdict in Stormy Daniels case.
CONFERENCE: IfG public services conference with Michael Gove and Prisons Minister James Timpson.
AMERICA: Congress reconvenes following U.S. election.
GAZA: U.S. deadline for Israel to improve humanitarian situation in Gaza.
BOOKS: Booker prize winner announced.
WEDNESDAY 13
COMMONS: Women and Equalities questions, PMQs, votes on voter ID and vapes bills.
LORDS: Questions including on journalists detained overseas, railways bill third reading, football governance bill second reading.
COMMITTEES: Work and pensions: Secretary Liz Kendall and permanent secretary questioned; Transport: Secretary Louise Haigh and permanent secretary questioned; Financial Services (Lords): Financial Conduct Authority on regulation; Women and Equalities: Health experts on women’s reproductive health.
SOUTHPORT: Court hearing for Axel Rudakubana on Southport killings.
CONFERENCE: NHS Providers conference with Wes Streeting.
SPEECH: Jonathan Reynolds give a speech to economic summit in Berlin.
AMERICA: U.S. House and Senate Republicans’ leadership votes.
ALIENS: U.S. House hearing on UFOs.
THURSDAY 14
COMMONS: Environment questions, solicitor general questions, Commons business statement.
LORDS: Questions including on voter registration, BBC World Service, renewable energy.
ECON: Rachel Reeves gives Mansion House speech.
ELECTIONS: Sri Lanka parliamentary elections.
FRIDAY 15
COMMONS: Not sitting.
LORDS: Reading of bills including on education, resentencing, women and security, listed investment companies.
ECON: Estimates for Q3 of U.K. GDP.
EU: European Commission autumn economic forecast.
WALES: Welsh Labour conference.
MOON: Supermoon.
SATURDAY 16
LIB DEMS: Scottish Liberal Democrat conference.
Writing Monday morning’s Playbook: Stefan Boscia.
Thanks: To my editor, Jack Blanchard, for giving Crunch some Sunday sparkle.
**A message from McDonald’s: McDonald’s was the first global restaurant chain to set science-based greenhouse gas reduction targets. In our 50th year in the UK, we’re setting out how McDonald’s has a unique opportunity to have a positive impact on one of the biggest challenges facing the world today – climate change. In 2021, we launched Plan for Change – a plan with ambitious goals and actions that will help us lead positive change right across our business, from farm to front counter. Today, we estimate that more than 90% of our greenhouse gas emissions come from the ingredients in our supply chain. That’s why we are working hard with our key suppliers to develop a roadmap to net zero. And, we’re innovating with suppliers to minimise the environmental impact of our packaging. In 2023, 97.5% was recyclable or compostable – we expect it to be 100% later this year. Find out more here.**
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