Donald Trump's Trade War Won't Hurt China | Opinion

While the allure of a trade war sounds bold, the reality is that the United States is poised to lose far more than it could gain. China, contrary to the prevailing narrative, is far from a vulnerable target. In fact, it’s better positioned to weather a trade conflict, with its tightly controlled economy, vast manufacturing power, and increasing global influence. The notion that China will crumble under the pressure of U.S. tariffs or American economic might ignores not only the resilience of China’s system but the vulnerabilities within our own.

China has spent decades strategically positioning itself as the world’s manufacturing powerhouse, controlling crucial sectors of global supply chains. Today, it accounts for 30 percent of global manufacturing, and this isn’t by accident. Through policies focused on massive subsidies, low-cost production, and infrastructure expansion, China has created a production juggernaut that is deeply embedded in global markets. With this level of control, any economic disruption—especially one initiated by the United States—will send shockwaves back to American consumers and businesses. From electronics to medical supplies, the U.S. relies on China more than many Americans realize, and severing that dependency overnight would trigger chaos on our shelves and in our industries.

Moreover, China’s central government has the power to manipulate its economy in ways the United States simply can’t match. Beijing’s authoritarian system allows it to enforce economic strategies with precision and speed, deploying subsidies, currency devaluations, and strategic investments as needed. While the United States debates policy in Congress, China acts unilaterally. During the 2018 trade skirmishes with the Trump administration, China absorbed the blows by lowering the value of the renminbi, thereby offsetting the impact of U.S. tariffs on its exporters. In the process, China shielded its industries and kept its exports flowing to the rest of the world—particularly to America, where demand remained high despite the tariffs. To assume that China will simply buckle under new tariff pressure is to overlook how adeptly it has navigated past economic battles.

A trade war also risks fracturing critical alliances the United States needs to confront China on fair terms. Tariffs and protectionist policies alienate key allies in Europe and Asia who might otherwise align with the U.S. to press for a reformed global trade order. The European Union, Japan, South Korea, and other nations all have economic interests tied to China. If the U.S. pursues a unilateral trade war, those allies may distance themselves rather than compromise their own economies. The result? China could end up even more influential, consolidating economic ties with those countries who prefer stability over confrontation.

Meanwhile, American consumers will be hit hardest. Tariffs on Chinese goods directly translate into higher prices on everyday products, affecting everything from groceries to consumer electronics. With U.S. inflation already high, an escalation in tariffs would exacerbate cost-of-living issues for American families. As businesses are forced to pay more for goods, many will either pass these costs onto consumers or cut jobs to survive—neither of which benefits the American public. A trade war masquerading as a battle for American industry may sound patriotic, but the economic reality is that it will likely drain the wallets of everyday Americans while sparking resentment among those already struggling to make ends meet.

It’s also crucial to recognize that China’s trading partners extend well beyond the United States. China has been strengthening its ties across Asia, Africa, and Latin America through initiatives like the Belt and Road, creating alternative markets and partnerships to hedge against reliance on the West. While the U.S. contemplates tariffs, China is busy securing its economic future, building a web of influence that cushions it from American economic hostility. This global network means that even if the U.S. disrupts Chinese exports, China has other markets ready to absorb its goods and keep its economy afloat.

The United States is entangled in a web of global supply chains that China has mastered. Pulling back from these connections would disrupt U.S. industries, harm American workers, and lead to a domestic economic downturn far worse than any punitive impact on China. The simplistic notion that trade-surplus nations like China are automatically vulnerable ignores the complex economic interdependencies that tie U.S. prosperity to China’s economy.

Ultimately, a trade war aimed at “winning” against China is a dangerous gamble that risks backfiring. China is better positioned, better prepared, and more strategically adaptable than the U.S. is prepared to admit.

The path to true economic strength lies in liberating American enterprise through reduced government spending, lower taxes, and the elimination of crippling regulations that stifle innovation and productivity. By empowering our own industries to compete freely and fairly on the global stage, we cultivate resilience and economic freedom—without the need for isolationist tariffs that ultimately hurt American consumers and businesses more than they hurt China.

Dylan Allman is social media advisor to the Libertarian National Committee.

The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.