China’s Top 10 Imports Before The Trade War And The Near-Shoring Myth

Here’s the results from the U.S. trade war with China:

U.S. trade deficit with China is down about 15%.

U.S. deficit with the world is up about 60%, or four times that.

It’s like a game of Whac-A-Mole gone horribly wrong. A lot like that.

While I looked at the impact of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada after Trump promised them before taking office and yesterday promised they would go in place on Feb. 1, this is a closer look at China.

China has been under heavy tariffs since 2018, put in place during Trump’s first term and kept by former President Joe Biden. One of the reasons was to attack the trade deficit. Another was to penalize China for not playing fair.

As mentioned, since prior to the trade war, the U.S. deficit with China has fallen 15%. Here’s a look at the deficit with other leading trade partners:

Mexico, up more than 160%;

Canada, up more than 500%;

South Korea, up more than 120%;

Taiwan, up more than 400%;

Vietnam, up more than 275%;

Ireland, up almost 150%.

The U.S. deficit with India is up about 80%, with Italy, 53%, Germany, a relatively modest 29%.

Foreign Revenue Service

Before I get to a closer look at the top 10 U.S. imports from China and what has happened to them since the beginning of Trump’s first term, a quick note:

While I don’t fault Trump or anyone else for disrupting the status quo or trying new solutions to old problems, it’s not entirely clear how his new proposed Foreign Revenue Service, as he is calling it, will change anything.

Revenues from the tariffs would still come to the U.S. Treasury, as they do now. The only question is where the tariff is paid in the supply chain, not who ultimately pays for the U.S. tax bill. Most economists would posit it is the ultimate consumer, you and me, and particularly those with the lowest disposable income.

So, again, the U.S. trade deficit with China has fallen since 2016, the last full year of data before Trump entered the White House, from $346.83 million to what I expect to be slightly less than $300 million when annual statistics are released in early February.

Trillion-dollar U.S. deficit

The U.S. deficit with the world, however, has increased, from $735.33 million to slightly less than $1.2 trillion, which would be a record and the fourth consecutive year above $1 trillion.

And, of course, this isn’t just about Trump. The time period in question includes the tenure of former President Joe Biden, who kept the tariffs in place.

Now that the political class is in lockstep that tariffs deliver for the American people, who are still reeling from nasty inflation, likely caused by excessive Covid-19 spending but not helped by the tariffs, a closer look at the top 10 U.S. imports from China in 2017, before the beginning of the trade war.

I should note that the top 10 imports that year accounted for 40.38% of all imports from China that a year, a year in which China imported in more than 1,100 categories (at the four-digit level, for those in the business). So it’s a strong sampling.

Top 10 China imports

I should also note that, once you have reviewed the data below, you will probably have strong suspicions, as do many others that there are some games being played with “rules of origin” labeling for these imports, or at least that the totals refer to a limited amount of final assembly in some of these countries, particularly the Asian ones. The changes are quite dramatic.

Given the chart at right, I will focus on where those U.S. imports from China went — and how few of them actually shifted to Mexico, what is often called “near-shoring.”

To compare apples to apples, I will now rely on year-to-date data through the first 11 months of each year mentioned, since that is the most recent data available for 2024.

1. Cell phones and related equipment. China’s market share of U.S. imports has dropped from 63.08% to 44.94% while overall imports into the United States have increased 2.95%. (China’s percentage is down 26.66%.) The biggest gains? Vietnam, Thailand and India, with the first two more than doubling market share into double digits and India jumping from 0.13% to 7.56%. China is still the top U.S. source.
2. Computers. In 2017, China accounted for 60.70% of these imports. Today, that percentage is 26.28% and it is second to Mexico, which has grown market share from 23.46% to 33.875. The biggest gains, however, are with Taiwan and Vietnam, with the former jumping from 2.29% to 18.69% and the latter from 1.16% to 11:35%. The overall market grew 66.54% while China’s total slipped 27.69%. Mexico tends to be an importers of desktop computers while the Asian countries tend to import from laptops and tablets.
3. Computer parts. China took a big hit here, with its market share falling from 65.82% to 12.41% and Taiwan’s increasing from 7.90% to 47.28%, enough to supplant China as the top source for the United States. Vietnam also gained sharply, from 0.43% of the total to 10.97%. Overall imports are up 136.06% while those from China are down 56.58%.
4. Toys, children’s bicycles, games. Of the top 10 imports, China has held on most closely to this one, losing a relatively small market share, from 86.49% to a still-dominant 75.85%. Vietnam has seen the largest gains, though Mexico and Indonesia have garnered additional market share also. In this category, the overall increase since 2017 is 23.03%, with China at 8.63% and the other three at more than 100%.
5. TVs and computer monitors. China’s market share here dropped from 43.28% to 32.09%. While top-ranked Mexico’s market share increased slightly, from 45.45% to 47.26%, Vietnam’s increased from 0.37% to 9.54%. While imports from China dropped 40.64% and those from Mexico increased 0.58%, those from Vietnam increased 467%. Overall, imports in this category dropped 13.36. Mexican imports tends to be TVs while those from Asia are more likely to be monitors.
6. Furniture. China dominated this in 2017, the largest importer into the United States with 47.11 market share. Vietnam now ranks first, with 27.99%. China has fallen to 21.62%. Mexico gained slightly, from 5.27% to 8.59%. Overall, imports increased 13.50% from 2017 while those from China fell 49.27%.
7. Seat, often car seats. Mexico’s market share has been rock steady, from 32.89% in 2017 to 32.87% in 2024, now enough to rank ahead of China, which fell from a market share of 41.12% to 25.82%. Imports from Vietnam increased from 4.71% to 19,01%. The overall market increased 9.71%; China’s total fell 35.25% while Vietnam’s increased 285%.
8. Motor vehicle parts. Here, Mexico gained about 6.5% market share while China, which had ranked second to Mexico, slipped behind Canada, with slightly less than a 4% drop. The strength of the automotive sector in the North American supply chain, as Germany and Japan also lost market share and South Korea’s gained slightly. The overall market increased 36.41% while Mexico increased 61.69%, Canada 31.64% and China 0.60%.
9. Lamps and lighting parts. Here China lost big market share and once again Vietnam is a big gainer. But, in this case, so was Cambodia. China’s market share fell from 62.75% to 36.29% while Cambodia increased from 0.28% to 8.36% and Vietnam from 0.15% to 8.24%. Mexico’s market share fell slightly, from 20.46% to 19.07.%, but remained second to China in this category. The value of overall imports in this category fell 17.83 from the first 11 months of 2017, with China down 53.20%, Mexico off 19.58%, Cambodia up from than 1,600% and Vietnam up 4,707%.
10. Handbags, wallets, etc. Here again, Cambodia is a strong performer, with its market share increasing from 1.60% to 15.74% — enough to put it close to China, which saw its market share collapse, from 58.61% to 23.22%. France — a European nation shows some gains — and Indonesia also gained market share, particularly Indonesia.

So, in the end, the tariffs in place, supply chains were seemingly disrupted. Although, for the most part, China’s losses in market share were swooped up by Vietnam most often but also Taiwan, Cambodia and others.