US dollar edges up from 11-week low amid soft US data, tariff uncertainty

THE greenback edged up from near 11-week lows on Wednesday (Feb 26), as US Treasury yields bounced back after recent declines amid weak economic data and uncertainty about tariff implementation.

On Tuesday, signs of deceleration in the US economy and concerns about the impact of US policy sent investors searching for refuge in safe-haven bonds.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that the economy was more fragile under the surface than economic metrics suggest. He cited interest rate volatility, sticky inflation and job growth dependence on the government sector, adding that tariffs are an important source of revenue.

The US dollar index, which measures the currency against six major rivals, was up 0.3 per cent at 106.56, rising from this week’s low of 106.12 – the weakest level since Dec 10.

“Headlines about tariffs, as opposed to tariffs themselves, raise policy uncertainty, which can delay business undertakings, and thus be disinflationary,” said Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie.

“This puts the Federal Reserve in a bind, as it must balance the disinflationary impulse from a policy uncertainty spike, with inflation from the prospect of actual tariffs later.”

The two-year US Treasury yield declined as low as 4.074 per cent on Tuesday for the first time since Nov 1, but was up three basis points (bps) at 4.125 per cent on Wednesday in London trade.

Money markets are currently pricing 54 bps of Fed rate cuts by year end, which imply two 25 bps easing moves and an around 20 per cent chance of an additional cut.

“With more voices from the European Central Bank arguing in favour of pausing its cutting cycle sooner rather than later, the prospects look good for a further favourable move in spreads for the euro/dollar,” said Derek Halpenny, head of research, global markets at MUFG, adding that tariff threats keep the single currency capped.

The euro was 0.25 per cent lower to US$1.0488, after reaching US$1.0528 on Monday, its highest since Jan 27.

European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel said that it was no longer clear the current 2.75 per cent rate is holding back the economy. Policymakers are discussing how much further rates must fall when inflation is still a bit too high.

Investors closely watch talks for peace in Ukraine, which could affect the euro area economy and the single currency.

The Kremlin said preparations were being made for expert-level talks between Russia and the US.

Meanwhile, Ukraine and the US have prepared a final version of an agreement on Ukraine’s natural resources, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.

European currencies are taking the Ukraine mineral agreement with the US as a step “towards a US security guarantee (for Ukraine)”, said Chris Turner, head of forex strategy at ING.

The Canadian dollar edged down to a fresh two-week low and the Mexican peso was little changed ahead of a possible new round of tariffs from the US.

Trump said on Monday that duties against Canada and Mexico would proceed as scheduled, ostensibly from Mar 4.

However, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Tuesday that she expected to reach an agreement that could head off a potential trade war with the US.

Canadian Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne told reporters that discussions to convince Trump that Canada has done enough to address US concerns over border security would continue.

The US dollar rose as high as C$1.4348, its strongest level since Feb 12. It dropped 0.1 per cent to 20.4443 Mexican pesos.

The US currency gained 0.35 per cent to 149.54 yen, rebounding from Tuesday’s low of 148.56 yen, its weakest since Oct 11.

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation, was little changed at US$88,242, after slumping 5.6 per cent on Tuesday and touching the lowest level since mid-November at US$86,003.11. REUTERS