Energy stocks outperform year-to-date amid inflation, tariff uncertainty
Energy stocks have outperformed the broader markets this year as investors shift from the tech play in favor of companies with free cash flow well-positioned to pay dividends and weather downturns.
Despite oil prices slipping 2% year to date, the S&P 500 Energy Select ETF (XLE) is up nearly 8%, while Tech (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) are down more than 8% and 12%, respectively.
“The energy sector continues to offer compelling investment characteristics, including high free cash flow yields and investor friendly capital allocation through cash dividends, dividend growth, and stock buybacks,” said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital.
Energy-related equities may be partially insulated from the recent tariff and inflation uncertainty, which has impacted growth stocks.
“I think tariffs will have less impact on the energy sector than on others,” said Simon Lack, portfolio manager for the Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund (MLXAX), noting it’s unlikely that other countries will impose tariffs on US energy exports.
A favorable regulatory environment under President Trump is also expected to lower production costs for energy companies.
“Additionally, he has signaled a willingness to reconsider tariffs if other countries buy more US oil and gas, reinforcing a positive outlook for the sector,” Lack said.
Read more about energy stock moves and today’s market action.
Bullish price movements in natural gas (NG=F), the star performer within the energy complex, have also sent equities within the sector higher.
“These companies are benefiting from a more than 30% increase in natural gas prices in 2025,” Thummel noted.
Plains All America Pipeline (PAA), for example, is up 17% year to date, while MPLX (MPLX), a natural-gas pipeline transportation company, is also up about 12% since the start of the year.
On Friday, oil was on pace for its second week of gains after touching its lowest level of the year earlier this month, with Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, hovering above $71 per barrel.
“Our model indicates Brent prices in the low $70s are about $6 undervalued,” JPMorgan’s Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note on Thursday.
“We expect Brent prices to rise to the mid- to high-$70s in the coming months, then fall below $70, ending the year in the mid-$60s, averaging $73.”
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.
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