Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 145 pts; levels to watch for Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank

After a volatile ending to the April Series contracts, Indian benchmark indices are set to kick off March series on a positive note. Strong performance by the US stocks in the overnight trade, along with gains in Asian peers is likely to spill over to Dalal Street indices as well. All eyes will be set on RIL’s earnings due later today.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 144.50 points, or 0.59 per cent, higher at 24,517.60, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Friday. Asian stocks opened higher today amid the rising optimism over rate cuts and easing tariff war concerns along with boost from global tech giants.

In the Asian pack, Japan’s Nikkei surged 1.35 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added one per cent. Australia’s ASX 200 was up 0.60 per cent and South Korean KOSPI also rose half-a-per cent in the early trade. Shanghai Composite inched up slightly at open.

FII buying continued, supporting the market sentiment. In a positive development, the US indicated that India could be the first country to sign a trade deal with the US, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. “Global market cues and Q4 corporate earnings would be the key drivers for the market,” he said.

Wall Street stocks closed higher on Thursday, rallying for a third straight day with a solid boost from technology shares as investors parsed a mixed bag of corporate earnings and signs of progress in the US-China tariff stand-off. The Dow Jones rose 1.23 per cent to 40,093.40, S&P 500 gained 2.03 1.23 per cent to 5,484.77 and Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.74 1.23 per cent to 17,166.04.

The dollar drifted higher on Friday, following small losses a day earlier, as traders grappled with the outlook for the US economy following President Donald Trump’s erratic messaging on trade deals and Federal Reserve interference. The US dollar was on the course to snap the 4-week losing streak.

Oil prices edged higher on Friday but were on track for a weekly loss as a potential OPEC output increase and a possible ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war may raise supply at the same time conflicting US tariff signals limit the demand outlook. Brent crude futures rose to $66.60 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude added to $62.85 a barrel.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 8,250.53 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned net sellers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 534.54 crore.

This phase of consolidation in the index is in line with expectations and may continue in the coming sessions, said  Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. “Therefore, we recommend maintaining a focus on stock selection and using market dips as buying opportunities. Following their recent outperformance, banking and financial stocks may see some consolidation,” he said.

Nifty outlook
Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities believes that the short-term market texture is bullish, but a fresh uptrend rally is possible after the dismissal of the 24,350/80,100 resistance zone. “The market could move up to 24,450-24,500 /80,400-80,500. On the other hand, if the market falls below 24,200/79,600, we could see a quick intraday correction down to 24,100/79,300,” he said.

While the short-term sentiment remains strong, signs of fatigue are becoming increasingly evident. A small correction may happen if the index sustains below 22,300, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. “On the downside, the Nifty could decline towards 21,900, while resistance is seen at 24,300 and 24,500.”

Nifty Bank outlook
Hence, failure to move above 56,000 levels will lead to some consolidation in the range of 54,400-56,000 in the coming sessions, said Bajaj Broking. “While a move above 56,000 levels will lead to extension of up move towards the 56,800 zone in the coming weeks. The key support base is placed at 54,000-53,500 levels, being the Monday’s gap area and the recent major breakout area.”

Nifty Bank must decisively surpass the 56,100 resistance level. The momentum indicators such as the daily RSI and MACD show cooling off signals, suggesting reduced bullish strength, said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities. “The broader outlook remains constructive as long as the 54,400 to 54,500 zone holds on a closing basis,” he added.