Can India navigate US-China trade tensions to boost green economy growth?

India is treading a fine line between China and the United States as it races to grow its green economy, with analysts warning that its reliance on Chinese inputs and shifting global trade rules could complicate its efforts to become a cleantech hub.

While recent US tariff moves may offer short-term gains for Indian exporters, New Delhi remains heavily reliant on China for critical components – particularly in the clean energy sector, where Beijing leads in both production and innovation, analysts have warned.

“It’s not going to be easy for us to compete with China. For example, while headlines suggest that the US will now import more iPhones from India than from China, in reality, India is only assembling them. The components still come from China,” said Aruna Sharma, a former secretary in India’s Ministry of Steel.

Her comments came during a webinar held on Monday titled “What does the global trade reshuffle mean for India’s 2030 goals”, where analysts examined how shifting global dynamics could affect India’s economic strategy in the years ahead.

India, Japan and South Korea are expected to be among the first few countries that the US could sign a trade agreement with, potentially helping them avert Washington’s steep import tariffs on a range of countries that were announced last month.

The South Asian nation has an opportunity to ramp up its manufacturing industry including green industries, but it will need to introduce policies to support its small and medium-sized industries that form a bulk of its industry to fulfil India’s ambitions over the long term, according to Sharma.