Stock Market today: Gift Nifty up 12 pts; key levels to watch for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices are set to kick-off the new week on a muted note amid a mixed set of cues from the global markets. However, updates of trade deals, economic data and rate cuts will be major global factors deciding the direction of the market. Back home, Q4 earnings and truce with Pakistan shall be the major guiding points for Dalal Street.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 11.70  points, or 0.05 per cent, lower at 25,067, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian shares slipped on Monday as a mixed bag of Chinese economic data. Nikkei and Hang Seng shed one-third a per cent, while KOSPI was down two-third a per cent. ASX 200 was marginally down.

The broader consolidation with a positive bias is likely to persist for the Indian markets, supported by easing geopolitical tensions, progress on trade agreements, and improving signs of macroeconomic stability, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Wall Street’s main indexes rose on Friday for their fifth straight day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 331.99 points, or 0.78 per cent, to 42,654.74, the S&P 500 gained 41.45 points, or 0.70 per cent, to 5,958.38 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 98.78 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 19,211.10.

Oil prices were little changed on Monday with investors eyeing the outcome of Iran-US nuclear talks and key economic data due from China to assess the impact on its commodities demand following trade tensions with the United States. Brent crude futures edged down 5 cents to $65.36 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $62.52 a barrel, up 3 cents.

The market’s upward momentum was driven primarily by the announcement of a ceasefire between India and Pakistan over the weekend, signaling a reduction in geopolitical tensions. Softer retail and wholesale inflation data raised hopes of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India in its upcoming RBI policy meet, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking.

The US dollar trimmed a four-week gain in early Asian trade as markets digested a surprise downgrade of the US government’s credit rating and as lingering trade frictions weighed on sentiment. The greenback advanced 0.6 per cent against major counterparts last week. On the other hand, gold was trading 1.2 per cent firmer at $3,241 an ounce.

Investor focus is likely to shift toward assessing the ongoing Q4 corporate earnings season, said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group. “There is growing optimism around the possibility of an early India-US trade deal, which could provide further support to market sentiment. Key global economic data releases will also influence investor and market direction.”

FPIs continue to show confidence in the country’s equity market, infusing Rs 18,620 crore in May so far. Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 8,831.05 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned net buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 5,187.09 crore.

With the global trade scenario improving after the pause in trade war between US and China and the end of the India-Pak conflict, the investment scenario has improved, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. “The macro construct in India looks good. Going forward, FIIs are likely to continue their buying in India. Large caps will be resilient.”

Nifty & Sensex outlook
The market texture is bullish in the short term, but buying on dips and selling on rallies would be the ideal strategy for traders, said Amol Athawale, Vice-President of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

“On the downside, 24,665/81,300 and 24,400/80,500 or 20 day SMA would act as key support levels, while 25,100/82,700 could serve as an immediate resistance zone for the bulls. A successful breakout above these levels could push the market toward 25,500/83,800. However, if the index falls below 24,400/80,500, the uptrend could become vulnerable,” he added.

The Nifty50 pattern projects an upside potential toward 28,000 in the short term. Immediate resistance is seen at 26,000–27,000 levels, where partial profit booking may be considered, said Choice Broking. “On the downside, 24,300 and 24,000 are strong support zones; any correction toward these levels should be viewed as a buying opportunity, keeping the broader trend intact.”

Momentum indicators also support the bullish setup. The RSI stands at 61.9 and is trending upwards, indicating growing strength. This technical alignment continues to favor a buy-on-dips strategy. Traders should keep a close eye on the 25,000 level—a sustained hold above it may trigger fresh buying interest, though a risk-managed approach is recommended, Choice said.

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank has been consolidating within a downward-sloping flag pattern, a typical continuation structure after a sharp rally. It managed to stay near the upper boundary of the flag, hinting at a potential breakout, said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.

“A decisive breakout above 55,500 could resume the prior rally, with the next resistance zone placed near 56,100-56,500. The immediate support is placed around 54,800, followed by 54,500, which aligns with the median of the channel,” he said.

Bank Nifty on the daily chart has formed a small bull candle which remained enclosed inside previous sessions’ price range signaling consolidation with positive bias, said Bajaj Broking. “Key support for the short-term point of view is placed at 54,500- 54,000 being the confluence of the Monday’s gap area and 20-day EMA,” it said.