Social Security COLA 2026: Current Forecast Predicts Lower Raise for Retirees
Millions of retirees may be in for disappointment next year. Early estimates suggest the Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026 could be significantly smaller than the 3.2% raise beneficiaries received in 2024, according to new projections released this month.
COLA Forecast Points to Modest Increase
The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy group for older Americans, now forecasts a 2026 COLA of just 2.5% based on recent inflation trends. This would be one of the smallest adjustments in the past five years and marks a shift after two consecutive years of historically high benefit increases.
“While inflation has cooled, household costs for older Americans remain persistently high,” said Mary Johnson, a Social Security policy analyst with the League. “A lower COLA will hit retirees hardest, especially those living on fixed incomes.”
Why the COLA Is Expected to Drop
The annual COLA is based on third-quarter data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The Social Security Administration (SSA) uses the average inflation from July through September to determine the benefit increase for the following year.
Here’s what’s fueling the smaller projection:
- Slower Inflation Growth: Monthly inflation has stabilized, particularly in fuel and food categories.
- Federal Reserve Policy: High interest rates have helped cool the economy, easing pressure on prices.
- Energy Costs Decline: Lower gas and utility bills in recent months are bringing down the CPI-W.
What This Means for Monthly Payments
The average monthly Social Security check in 2025 is $1,907, according to the SSA. A 2.6% increase would add about $49 per month, compared to the $59 bump retirees received from the 3.2% COLA this year.
| Year | COLA | Avg. Monthly Benefit | Monthly Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 8.7% | $1,681 | +$146 |
| 2024 | 3.2% | $1,907 | +$59 |
| 2025 (est.) | 2.6% | ~$1,956 | +$49 (projected) |
Note: Final COLA figures will be released by the SSA in October 2025, following the close of Q3 inflation data.
How Retirees Can Prepare Now
Financial advisors recommend beneficiaries take the following steps ahead of the official announcement:
- Review your household budget in light of a smaller-than-expected COLA.
- Explore Supplemental Security Income (SSI) if your income is limited.
- Use SSA.gov calculators to estimate 2026 benefit adjustments.
Political Pressure Mounts
The prospect of a lower COLA also comes amid growing debate in Washington over the future of Social Security’s solvency. With Donald Trump’s tax plan pending in the Senate and long-term funding gaps looming, some lawmakers are pushing for structural reforms that could further impact benefits.
“Without decisive action, smaller COLAs could become the new normal,” said Richard Fiesta, executive director of the Alliance for Retired Americans. “We need Congress to protect—not shrink—Social Security.”
Stay informed and plan ahead. Social Security remains a lifeline for over 71 million Americans — knowing your payment dates and any upcoming changes is key to staying financially secure.
If you’re unsure about your benefits or need personalized guidance, visit SSA.gov or call 1-800-772-1213.