US stocks struggle for direction; Nasdaq 100 up 3%, S&P 500 and Dow flat YTD
US stock futures fell on Friday amid rising geopolitical tensions. Markets appear weak amidst the Middle East tensions. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering launching a military attack on Iran, which has heightened tensions in the Middle East.
But, it is going to be a long period of waiting ahead. The White House stated on Thursday that a final decision could come within the next two weeks, adding to investor unease amid the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.
Markets were also analyzing the Federal Reserve’s latest policy position, which followed its decision to hold interest rates constant earlier this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded cautious, citing increased uncertainty due to geopolitical concerns, Trump’s proposed tariffs, and their uncertain impact on inflation.
Chair Jerome Powell warned that inflation could rise in the coming months as a result of new tariffs, and the Fed’s updated predictions contained two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025, as well as weaker GDP expectations.
The Fed’s new predictions now show two rate cuts in 2025, combined with weaker GDP and slightly higher inflation. New Fed estimates predicted slower growth, greater inflation, and decreased employment in 2025.
The S&P 500 and Dow are almost flat, while the Nasdaq 100 is up by only 3% so far in 2025 despite so much volatility and an action-packed first half of 2025. The performance in the second half of 2025 will depend a lot on how reciprocal tariffs play out and Israel-Iran war impacts oil prices.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was around 4.39% on Friday, remaining in a limited range as investors considered increased geopolitical risks and an uncertain economic outlook.
The US dollar index fell to about 98.6 on Friday, but it is still on course for a weekly gain as the escalating tension between Israel and Iran, as well as the possibility of US involvement, increased safe-haven demand.
Gold dipped below $3,360 per ounce on Friday, nearing a one-week low and on track for its first weekly loss in three weeks, as investors sold metal to offset losses in other markets amid growing Middle East tensions.
WTI crude oil futures slipped to approximately $73.5 per barrel on Friday, but are still on track for a third weekly rise, as rising hostilities in the Middle East feed fears of regional supply disruptions. Despite the increased dangers, sources show that Iran is maintaining crude shipments, loading 2.2 million barrels per day so far this week—the largest level in five weeks. Separately, oil prices were boosted by a sharper-than-expected reduction in US crude stocks earlier this week, with government data indicating the highest weekly decline in a year.
16 billion Apple, Facebook, Google, and other passwords leaked, reports Forbes. Shares of tech companies will be in focus today. Over the past six months, Google has surpassed Apple and Microsoft to become the most lucrative firm in the world.
Oscar Health extended its winning streak to a third day on Wednesday, rising 16.51 percent to finish at $18.77 per share as investors sought bargains after learning that lawmakers are proposing a new measure that would allow individuals and employers to voluntarily enroll in a new version of Medicare.