What are the best US investing opportunities right now?

The erratic policies of President Donald Trump particularly on trade have caused many investors to rethink their heavy exposure to US markets.

Negative recent returns from the US and brighter prospects in Europe and Asia have prompted what is dubbed the ‘great rotation’ out of dollar assets.

The US has made a total return of -5.2 per cent in the year to date, partly due to dollar weakness, versus the rest of the world which made 6.8 per cent.

But there is inevitably pushback from some investing experts, who point not just to the staggering returns the US has generated in recent decades, but its dominance in key industries with huge money-making potential – most notably, AI.

‘It is not a zero-sum game – just because other markets perform better doesn’t necessarily mean the US will suffer,’ says Rob Burgeman, wealth manager at RBC Brewin Dolphin.

‘Disinvesting from the US means cutting exposure to some of the biggest and most successful tech companies in the world, and few other markets have any equivalents or competitors of similar scale.

‘These aren’t just US companies – they are global – and they will likely be the pioneers of AI implementation too, along with the rest of the US economy.’

Meanwhile, with all due respect to the traditional adage that past returns are no guide to the future, the chart below from RBC Brewin Dolphin is a stark illustration of recent US outperformance.

US has dominated world markets for decades

The MSCI USA index has beat the MSCI World ex USA in 30 of the last 50 years, according to analysis by RBC Brewin Dolphin.

It has delivered a total return of 25,833.6 per cent – equivalent to 11.8 per cent per year. That is more than double the rest of the world’s 10,311.9 per cent, or 9.7 per cent annually.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world has outperformed the US just twice in the past 15 years, in 2017 and 2022. US success is thanks in large part to the tech sector and the so-called Magnificent Seven companies – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.

Rob Burgeman says: ‘There is a lot of negative sentiment around the US at the moment, as questions are being asked about the future effects of economic policy.

‘That has led a lot of people to talk about the “great rotation” that will soon follow, with moves away from the US into Europe and other markets, where returns may be better in the years ahead. But, when you take a longer- term view, it suggests that things are rarely that straightforward.’

Burgeman says US exceptionalism is about more than its companies, citing as well the shape of the country’s economy, the strength and diversity of its tech sector, and its self-sufficiency.

He adds the caveat that disagreements with the US may prompt the rest of the world to look beyond it for solutions to challenges, noting that China has attempted to woo other nations following Trump’s announcement of tariffs.

Burgeman also says the headwinds that faced other parts of the world are beginning to ease.

‘Europe was most impacted by the war in Ukraine, rising energy costs, and Germany’s fiscal brake, but these are beginning to dissipate now and may even come round and fill the continent’s sails.

He gives his take on the prospects for the UK, the rest of Europe, China and Asia more widely below.

Dollar weakness is hitting returns from US investments

A continuation of the ‘American exceptionalism’ theme was a consensus view at the start of this year, focused on potential upside from corporate tax cuts and deregulation and less on the risk of tariffs, says Evelyn Partners managing director Jason Hollands

‘What President Trump announced on ‘Liberation Day’ was most definitely at the worst end of expectations,’ he goes on.

‘While there has been some softening of position since and the US market has rebounded, there is clearly a lot of uncertainty around the end state and what this will mean for both the US economy and corporates.’

Hollands says the effect of US tariffs has yet to show up in its inflation data, maybe due to firms stocking up inventories of goods in advance, so the effect may come through over the coming months.

‘We are cautiously positioned towards the US and while the AI theme has come back into focus, valuations in this part of the market are very stretched.

‘Bubbles can develop and run on for some time and while the sell-off in big tech in February, triggered by the emergence of DeepSeek, proved short-lived, it should serve as a bit of a warning shot.’

Hollands warns another risk with having exposure to the US is the impact of dollar weakness.

‘While the S&P 500 is up 2.6 per cent since the start of the year in dollar terms, a UK investor will have seen a -5.5 per cent return because of currency losses, as most funds do not hedge the impact of currency movements.’

Jason’s US fund tips:

ETF

Invesco FTSE RAFI 1000 ETF (Ongoing charge: 0.39 per cent)- tracks largest US stocks, selected based on book value, cash flow, sales and dividends.

Actively managed funds

Dodge & Cox Worldwide US Stock (Ongoing charge: 0.63 per cent)

GQG Partners US Equity (Ongoing charge: 0.45 per cent)

US small and midcap funds

Premier Miton US Opportunities (Ongoing charge: 0.69 per cent)

Federated Hermes US SMID Equity (Ongoing charge: 0.76 per cent)

Undervalued markets like the UK are attracting renewed interest

The US has been the only game in town when it comes to equities for a long time now, says FundCalibre managing director Darius McDermott.

‘Its dominance has been underpinned by world-leading innovation, accelerating corporate earnings, and the sheer scale of its capital markets. As a result, it has justifiably remained the core allocation in most global portfolios.’

But McDermott says shifting monetary policy, heightened valuations, and geopolitical uncertainty have led his firm to consider rotating part of its exposure elsewhere.

‘While the US is still an absolutely core focus of our portfolios, as multi-asset investors we are continually reassessing where value and growth potential lie.

‘Markets such as the UK, which have long been undervalued, are starting to attract renewed interest. Alongside this, alternative equity niches, including specialist thematic funds and trusts, offer selective opportunities for those willing to look beyond the traditional playbook.’

Darius’s fund tips:

US

Comgest Growth America (Ongoing charge: 0.82 per cent)

GQG Partners US Equity (Ongoing charge: 0.45 per cent)

UK

AXA Framlington UK Mid Cap (Ongoing charge: 0.83 per cent)

IFSL Marlborough Special Situations (Ongoing charge: 0.78 per cent)

IFSL Evenlode Income (Ongoing charge: 0.63 per cent)

What about the case for the rest of the world?

Rob Burgeman of RBC Brewin Dolphin gives his take on where else you might look to invest right now.

UK: It could be the time to shine again

The UK has had its challenges in recent years – Brexit, in particular, cast a long shadow over a number of sectors, he says.

On top of that, the companies that make up the UK market are generally seen as being value-led, rather than growth, largely in mature sectors such as banking, energy, resources, insurance, and large cap pharmaceuticals.

The upshot has been that the FTSE index was largely seen as out of favour in a global context.

However, with investors now more willing to search beyond the US, and the UK looking like a more attractive market – with some high-quality companies and a comparatively stable policy environment – it could be the UK’s time to shine again.

Europe: US-Europe valuation gap could begin to narrow

The change in rhetoric from the US when it comes to Europe’s defence has prompted a lot of the continent’s governments to reassess their spending priorities.

Perhaps most notably is Germany’s €500billion commitment to infrastructure and defence, which was rubber stamped earlier this year.

This, and other funds like it, should act as a major stimulus for Europe’s economies. The question, however, is: how does it work out in practice?

Not every country will benefit in the same way, and the same can be said for industries within the nations that do. Nevertheless, there is a general consensus that the valuation gap between the US and Europe could begin to narrow in the years ahead. 

China: At the forefront of AI, with unveiling of DeepSeek

All of a sudden, China looks like an interesting place to invest. The country is still reeling from a property crisis that impacted stock markets, as well as the long-term effects of a stricter approach to managing the Covid-19 pandemic.

But it is also at the forefront of AI implementation, as the unveiling of DeepSeek demonstrated, and the tariffs imposed by the US may be nowhere near as punitive as once feared – albeit, the situation is fluid.

The country is also one of the few that can offer similarly scaled alternatives to the US tech giants.”

Emerging markets: A weaker dollar is good news for Asia and emerging markets

What is good for China is often good for the wider Asia Pacific region as well – an area that it is difficult to disentangle from the broader category of ‘emerging markets’.

Typically, most emerging market funds will largely be made up of companies from these countries, with exposure to other areas added in.

Broadly speaking, a weaker dollar is good news for Asia and emerging markets because much of their debt is denominated in US dollars.

That frees up capital that can be invested elsewhere in rapidly growing markets, while any tariffs placed on China will likely see manufacturing moved to Vietnam, India, and other countries, which can only be to their benefit.