Stock market today: S&P 500 nears record amid mixed signals
The stock market today shows resilient gains as the S&P 500 looks to push within striking distance of its all-time high. Mixed economic signals—from slipping consumer confidence to anticipation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony—have kept traders cautious. Investors will eye new-home sales data and corporate earnings due later today.
Market overview
Major U.S. equity benchmarks opened Wednesday near flat after a late-June rally. Futures tied to the S&P 500 traded marginally higher, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped about 12 points and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.1%. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 jumped over 1% as oil prices plunged on hopes for a lasting Iran–Israel ceasefire, bringing the index to within 1% of its record close. The Nasdaq Composite also rose more than 1%, and the Dow rallied over 500 points.
Consumer sentiment weighs on stocks
June’s Consumer Confidence Survey showed 29.2% of respondents find jobs “plentiful,” down from 31.1% in May, while 18.1% say jobs are “hard to get,” little changed from 18.4%. That narrowed the labor market differential to 11.1 percentage points—the smallest since March 2021—underscoring growing concerns over the job market’s strength . Weekly unemployment filings have climbed to an eight-month high, and continuing claims near their highest since November 2021.
- Hiring rates remain near decade lows
- Tech workers and recent college graduates face a tougher outlook
- Slowing employment growth fuels calls for Fed rate cuts
Futures and earnings watch
Stock futures held steady ahead of key data and corporate reports:
- New-home sales: June figures released this morning will gauge housing demand amid rising mortgage rates.
- Earnings: General Mills, Paychex and Micron report quarterly results, which could sway sector performance.
Traders have shrugged off geopolitical jitters—the market’s “resiliency” has been remarkable this year, said Joe Terranova of Virtus Investment Partners on CNBC.
Fed testimony impact
Fed Chair Jerome Powell begins a second day of testimony before the Senate Banking Committee today. Investors will parse his remarks for clues on rate policy:
- Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated on June 23 that labor market vitality “appears to be less dynamic,” suggesting a tilt toward downside employment risks .
- Seven Fed officials forecast no rate cuts this year, eight expect two cuts, highlighting internal debate.
- Powell has emphasized the Fed is “well-positioned to wait” before adjusting rates.
What happens next
With inflation trending toward the 2% target and signs of softening labor demand, markets are braced for potential policy shifts. Traders will watch:
- Inflation data: Personal consumption figures later this week could reinforce or temper dovish expectations.
- Housing market trends: Slower home sales may add pressure on consumer spending.
- Earnings surprises: Strong beats could lift sentiment; misses may trigger volatility.
Key takeaways
- S&P 500: Less than 1% from record high
- Nasdaq 100: New record closing level
- Dow Jones: Up over 500 points in two days
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