Invest 91L: Odds for tropical development bump up as system eyes Mexico's eastern coast

ORLANDO, Fla. – Forecasters are monitoring a broad swath of tropical activity for potential development near Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated the tropical disturbance as Invest 91L.

While the disturbance remains over land on Saturday morning, some tropical development is possible later in the day and into Sunday as the low moves west-northwest out into the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf.

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Here’s everything we know about the disturbance and how it could impact the United States. 

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What is Invest 91L?

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What we know:

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Forecasters are monitoring a broad swath of tropical activity for potential development, and the NHC has designated the tropical disturbance as Invest 91L.

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Odds are increasing that the disturbance could briefly develop into a tropical depression later this weekend.  The system has a 70% chance of development over the next two to seven days. 

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If so, it would be named Tropical Depression Two. Right now, the NHC gives medium odds of the system reaching tropical depression criteria. If, by chance, the storm’s peak winds managed to reach 40 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Barry.

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What they’re saying:

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NOAA says Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly reconnaissance flights into the area to watch over the weekend to understand the strength of the disturbance and better understand how powerful the system could become.

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“We’ll be watching this, and I think the timeline here it really is short,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Jane Minar. “It’s probably not going to be seven days from now. We’re really looking through maybe about Monday where we could maybe see a circulation come together.”

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Where is Invest 9L currently located?

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Big picture view:

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Invest 9L is currently near Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula. 

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The disturbance is expected to enter the southern Gulf before then crashing back into Mexico’s East Coast. As it moves farther inland across Central Mexico, it will continue to weaken.

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It’s definitely something to watch if you have plans to vacation in Mexico or have family and friends in the area. 

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Could Invest 9L impact Florida?

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Local perspective:

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This disturbance doesn’t look to have any impact on Florida, but it could move back into the southwest United States with some heavier rain. 

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What is an Invest?

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Dig deeper:

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An “invest” is a naming convention used by the NHC to identify areas they are investigating for possible development into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days. 

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The designation allows the agency to run specialized computer forecast models to track the area’s potential storm development. 

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Unusually quiet hurricane season

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Why you should care:

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So far, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet, with the basin’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), sitting at a meager 0.2 units. ACE is a metric used by forecasters to quantify the strength and duration of tropical cyclones, with greater values indicating stronger, longer-lasting systems. 

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According to data compiled by Colorado State University, the 2025 ACE value is more than 90% below average for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf.

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The peak of hurricane season typically comes in mid-September, so while activity is low now, forecasters caution that this is not an indicator of the full season’s potential.

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