Stock Market Today: Markets Chop Up More Trump Threats

The main U.S. equity indexes opened lower but crept higher Monday, rising above more threats from the White House about tariffs and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Investors, traders, speculators and President Donald Trump remain wary about the “injustices of global trade” and interest rates ahead of Tuesday’s release of fresh consumer price data.

“The June inflation data due this coming week should show at least some preliminary impacts from tariffs,” Randall Forsyth wrote in his Up and Down Wall Street column for Barron’s over the weekend. “How persistent these price pressures are seen to be will determine if rate cuts will be on the table soon.”

The highlight of this week’s economic calendar, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data before Tuesday’s opening bell.

As Forsyth notes, Wall Street expects to see 0.3% month-over-month upticks for both CPI and core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices.

The consensus expects year-over-year CPI to be 2.7% at the headline level and 3.0% at the core level, up from 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively, in May.

Federal funds rate futures pricing shows a 95.3% probability that monetary policymakers will hold steady at 4.25% to 4.50% at the next Fed meeting on July 29-30.

FedWatch pegs the September 16-17 meeting for the first of two cuts to the target range for the fed funds rate, totalling about 50 basis points between now and December.

With JPMorgan Chase (JPM) close to becoming a $1 trillion stock, big banks and many of the best financial stocks highlight this week’s earnings calendar.

Meanwhile, President Trump issued new threats of higher tariffs against the European Union, Mexico and Russia.

And, according to CNBC, Fed Chair Powell has asked for the central bank’s inspector general to review the $2.5 billion renovation of its Washington, D.C., facilities amid criticism from the Office of Management and Budget and the director of the National Economic Council.

By the closing bell, the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.3% at 20,640, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 0.2% to 44,459, and the S&P 500 eked out a gain of 0.1% to 6,268.

FAST stock is in good company

Fastenal (FAST, +4.2%) stood alone at the front of this week’s earnings calendar.

One of the best stocks to buy for dependable dividend growth looked good going solo, too, reporting second-quarter earnings of 29 cents per share on revenue of $2.1 billion, up from 26 cents and $1.9 billion a year ago.

The 2024 numbers are split-adjusted, as Fastenal completed a two-for-one stock split in May. (Here are some names mentioned as possible candidates to be the next stocks to split.) According to FactSet, Wall Street expected EPS of 28 cents on revenue of $2.1 billion.

Management noted “improved customer contract signings” and attributed much of Fastenal’s growth to a better digital experience, including its FASTBin and FASTVend.

And more automation is driving better margins too, 45.3% vs 45.1% a year ago.

FAST earned its way onto the Dividend Aristocrats list in January 2024 after raising its regular payout for 25 consecutive years. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, 17 analysts cover the stock, though only four say it’s a Buy. Another 10 call it a Hold.

And yet, year to date through Friday, FAST stock had outperformed the S&P 500 by 21.7% to 7.2%.

The industrial stock has outperformed the broader index over longer time frames too: 35.2% vs 13% for the trailing 12 months, 127.2% to 114% over five years and 429.3% vs 256.1% since 2015.

COIN coverage

“Is it too late to invest in bitcoin?” is a question on institutional as well as individual investors’ minds with the price of bitcoin topping $120,000 for the first time Monday and trading at a 24-hour high of $122,944.

The world’s first cryptocurrency is now traded via the best bitcoin ETFs. And you can also get exposure through crypto stocks such as Coinbase Global (COIN, +1.8%).

Indeed, Argus Research analysts Kevin Heal and Masako Inagaki initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and a $400 12-month target price. COIN was added to the S&P 500 on May 19, though it is one of the riskiest stocks in the index.

“Coinbase is the leading cryptocurrency trading platform that also provides services such as custodial solutions, analytics tools and risk management tools,” Heal and Inagaki write. The analysts note that COIN “is the first crypto-native member to be included in the S&P 500.”

COIN has outperformed the S&P 500 55.9% to 7.2% so far in 2025 and 77.5% to 13% over the trailing 12 months.

With three crypto-related bills making their way through Congress during “Crypto Week,” Heal and Inagaki observe that much of COIN’s outperformance “occurred post the [Senate’s] passage of the GENIUS Act in June.”

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