July 15, 2025

US stock market futures today: Nasdaq jumps on Nvidia’s 5% surge after China chip news, S&P 500 hits record highs, Dow lags on trade tariff worries

US stock market futures today are showing a mixed tone as investors react to a fresh mix of tech optimism and global trade concerns. The Nasdaq-100 futures are up nearly 0.6%, boosted by a sharp 5% jump in Nvidia shares after reports confirmed it can resume H20 AI chip shipments to China. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 futures are climbing about 0.4%, touching record highs amid growing confidence in upcoming earnings reports and signs of cooling inflation. On the flip side, Dow Jones futures are slightly down by 0.1%, dragged by renewed fears over U.S.-China trade tariffs.

How are the major U.S. stock indices performing today?

As of Tuesday morning, July 15, 2025, U.S. stock futures are showing modest gains as investors eye fresh inflation data and bank earnings:

S&P 500 (SPY): Trading around +0.35%, showing solid momentum.
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): Leading with a +0.59% jump, thanks to tech strength.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA): Slightly muted, hovering around –0.1% due to trade tariff concerns.

What’s happening with stock futures today?

Futures tied to the S&P 500 gained about 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6%, lifted by a 4.5% jump in Nvidia shares after the chipmaker announced it will soon resume sales of its H20 AI chips to China. The company said it received assurances from the U.S. government regarding licensing.

Nvidia stock surged 4.47% in pre-market trading after the U.S. government cleared the company to resume H20 AI chip exports to China. This greenlight could recover billions in lost revenue after Nvidia took a $4.5 billion hit when restrictions were enforced in April. AMD stock also climbed 3.18% pre-market as investor confidence in the AI chip market returned.

Meanwhile, Dow futures dipped slightly, down around 0.05% to 0.3%, as renewed tariff threats from President Donald Trump stirred caution in broader industrial and multinational stocks.

How are inflation numbers influencing markets?

Investors are closely watching the June consumer price index (CPI), due at 8:30 a.m. ET, for signs that tariffs are beginning to push prices higher. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect:

Headline CPI: +0.3% MoM, 2.7% YoY
Core CPI (ex-food and energy): +0.3% MoM, 3.0% YoY

That compares with May’s increases of 2.4% and 2.8% respectively. A hotter-than-expected print could delay Fed rate cuts, which markets are currently pricing in for as early as September.

Which major stocks are moving the market today?

Here are the top movers driving Wall Street action this morning:

Nvidia (NVDA): Soared 5.2% premarket after China allowed the company to resume sales of its H20 AI chips. This sparked a rally across the chip sector.
AMD: Gained 3.6%, following Nvidia’s lead.
Marvell Technology: Up 2.7%, riding the AI chip momentum.
The Trade Desk (TTD): Surged 15%, ahead of its official inclusion into the S&P 500 on July 18.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Rose 0.7% after a strong Q2 earnings report, boosted by trading revenue.
Wells Fargo (WFC): Slipped 0.8%, despite beating earnings estimates, as it trimmed its forward guidance.

What are the latest tariff developments?

President Trump’s latest round of tariff threats includes:

30% tariffs on EU and Mexican goods, effective August 1
Higher tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, and agricultural products

Markets so far have shrugged off the risk, betting that diplomacy or partial exemptions under USMCA (“TACO trade”) will limit the fallout. But analysts warn that the true economic impact of rising trade tensions may hit later this year.

What to expect from earnings season?

This week kicks off the Q2 earnings season, with JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, and State Street reporting results. Expectations are modest:

S&P 500 Q2 profit growth is projected at just 4.3% YoY, per FactSet—the weakest pace since Q4 2023.
Earlier this year, estimates hovered closer to 10%, but have since declined due to rising costs and global uncertainty.

Still, some investors are hopeful that low expectations will make room for upside surprises, potentially extending the market’s record highs.

What’s the global market picture?

Asian markets closed broadly higher:

Hang Seng +1.6%
Nikkei 225 +0.55%
Kospi +0.41%
ASX 200 +0.7%
Nifty 50 (India) +0.43%

European stocks opened firmer Tuesday, with the Stoxx 600 up around 0.2%, reversing Monday’s losses that followed Trump’s tariff threats.

What’s the market outlook?

Strategists warn that after a historic rally, markets may face a period of consolidation. Still, some point to historical trends where the S&P 500 resists deep pullbacks once new highs are made.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Harvard also flagged potential for increased volatility if tariff rhetoric continues to escalate.

FAQs

Q: Why is Nasdaq up today in US stock market futures?
A: Nasdaq rose on a 5% surge in Nvidia shares after news it can ship AI chips to China.

Q: What is pulling Dow Jones futures down today?
A: Dow Jones is under pressure due to renewed trade tariff worries impacting broader sentiment.