Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 12 pts; Key levels to watch for Nifty & Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices are likely to open on a muted note on Monday amid mixed cues from the global peers. Traders will be keenly awaiting India Inc’s performance in the June 2025 quarter ahead of the upcoming deadline for Trump tariffs on August one. The trade deal updates shall keep the traders on tenterhooks this week.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 12.40 points, or 0.05 per cent, down at 24,838, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian stocks were mixed on Monday after a trade agreement between the United States and the EU lifted sentiment. Nikkei and KOSPI edged lower, while Hang Seng rose nearly a per cent.

The equity markets are focused on earnings and management commentary during the Q1FY26 earnings season. The muted outlook provided by a number of companies across sectors dented the market mood, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. “Uncertainty with trade tariff continues to impact global and domestic equity market sentiments.”

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched record high closes on Friday. The S&P 500 climbed 0.40 per cent to end the session at 6,388.64 points. The Nasdaq gained 0.24 per cent to 21,108.32 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.47 per cent to 44,901.92 points.

The Indian rupee and government bonds will react to a host of cues this week, including a US Federal Reserve policy decision and the August 1 reciprocal tariff deadline, which is likely to keep traders cautious. India’s 10-year benchmark 6.33 per cent 2035 bond yield is expected to move in a range of 6.31-6.38 per cent.  The dollar index fell 0.1 per cent to 97.534.

Oil prices rose on Monday after the US reached a trade deal with the European Union and may extend a tariff pause with China, reducing concerns. Brent crude futures inched up 22 cents, or 0.32 per cent, to $68.66 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at$65.38 a barrel, up 22 cents, or 0.34per cent. Spot gold was flat at $3,335.84 per ounce.

Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking expects the market to remain volatile in the upcoming week due to the heavy earnings calendar, global cues, and the scheduled expiry of derivatives. Investors should adopt a selective approach, focusing on sectors with strong earnings performance. Participants should align their positions with a focus on risk management, he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,979.96 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs2,138.59 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs have pulled out Rs 30,562 crore from Indian Equities in July 2025 so far.

FPI selling which began in early July accelerated during the month. The FPI strategy was to sell at every rise in the market, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. “In July FIIs have been continuous sellers in the IT segment. They were buyers in banking and financial services,” he added.

Nifty outlook

A decisive close above the 25,150 level would be needed to shift momentum positively, potentially opening targets near 25,500 and 25,700 in the coming week, said Choice Broking. “Until then, the market outlook remains sideways to bearish, and a cautious stance with close monitoring of global and domestic triggers is advisable to navigate the prevailing volatility effectively,” he said.

The current Nifty50 setup appears notably weak and suggests the possibility of a deeper correction, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. “If it fails to reclaim levels above 24,900 in the next session or two, bulls could face significant short-term challenges. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 24,700, followed by 24,500,” he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank is range-bound, with immediate resistance around 57,000; a sustained breakout above this level could trigger fresh buying, targeting resistance at 57,630. Breaking beyond 57,630 may fuel stronger bullish momentum toward higher targets of 58,000 and 58,500, said Choice Broking.

“Conversely, on the downside, a break below the critical support level of 56,275 could lead to a deeper corrective move toward 55,550 and 55,150. Given the current range-bound price action and uncertain momentum, a cautious approach with sound risk management is advisable for the coming week,” he said.

The index is still holding above the previous two-week support zone of 56,200–56,250, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. A breakdown below this support range may trigger a further decline toward the psychological level of 55,500, acting as the measured target of the consolidation breakdown, said Bajaj Broking.