Could Nvidia Be the First $10 Trillion Company?

Nvidia might have started as a gaming chip company, but make no mistake it’s now the backbone of the AI revolution.

And if smart money projections hold up, it could become the first company to smash through the $10 trillion valuation barrier. That’s not hyperbole, it’s a plausible trajectory grounded in stunning financials, secular tailwinds, and a competitive moat that’s only getting wider.

Key Points

• Nvidia powers the AI revolution with dominant GPUs and a sticky CUDA software ecosystem that locks in developers.

• A $10 trillion valuation within 5 years is realistic if Nvidia maintains its growth and market position.

• Volatility is expected, but long-term investors could be well rewarded.

NVDA Financials Are Almost Unbelievable

Let’s take a step back. Over the last 10 years, Nvidia’s revenue has grown an astonishing 48x. Even more astounding is net income has exploded by over 72,000%.

Just in its fiscal Q1 2026 Nvidia posted revenues of $44 billion, up just shy of 70% year over year.

The real beast behind that performance is the data center segment, which now makes up nearly 90% of total sales and grew so fast it hit $39 billion.

This is where Nvidia’s AI chips live and demand hasn’t just accelerated, it’s gone vertical.

Adjusted earnings per share hit $0.81, up 33% year over year, proving Nvidia isn’t just growing, it’s doing so profitably.

Wall Street Sees a Long Runway

Despite already being a $4 trillion company, Nvidia’s valuation might still have room to run.

Analysts expect revenue to hit around $200 billion in fiscal 2026. If its current price-to-sales ratio of around 20x holds, Nvidia would need to grow revenue to roughly $500 billion annually to justify a $10 trillion market cap.

That sounds like a stretch until you realize Wall Street is forecasting 22.3% annual revenue growth for the next five years.

Compound that out, and you’ll see Nvidia could actually reach $475 billion in revenue by 2030. Do the math, and a $10 trillion market cap isn’t unrealistic.

The secret sauce in NVIDIA’s arsenal is its CUDA platform, a proprietary software layer that developers must use to fully unlock Nvidia’s hardware. That makes switching to a rival vendor a costly and painful ordeal. Nvidia has a software moat that’s nearly impossible to cross.

Most Investors Are Missing This

What most people miss is that Nvidia’s dominance isn’t just about raw performance, it’s about ecosystem lock-in.

CUDA is like the iOS of AI chips. Once developers start building on it, they rarely switch.

It’s why Nvidia commands over 80% of the AI chip market and continues to expand that lead even as competition mounts from AMD, Intel, and custom silicon by big tech firms.

Another overlooked asset is Nvidia’s networking and interconnect products, a key piece of the AI data center puzzle. As workloads scale, bottlenecks in memory and data transfer become critical.

Nvidia’s acquisition of Mellanox, which brought in high-speed networking tech, and the development of its own AI supercomputers like DGX Cloud are making Nvidia a one-stop shop for enterprise AI infrastructure.

This isn’t just a chip company anymore but an AI utility.

Risks are Part of the Deal

Of course, there’s no such thing as a free lunch in investing. Nvidia’s meteoric rise means any hiccup in earnings, competitive positioning, or macro conditions could cause short-term stock volatility.

We’ve seen it already, shares have stumbled in recent months on whispers of a potential slowdown in AI spending or shifting demand dynamics.

And 30 times next year’s earnings isn’t “cheap” in a vacuum. But for a company growing this fast, with this kind of profitability and moat, that multiple isn’t outrageous either. In fact, it’s downright reasonable if Nvidia continues executing at its current pace.

The Bigger Picture

The AI boom has only just begun. Nvidia is the plumbing behind that entire transformation.

Most investors are still thinking about Nvidia like a cyclical chip stock. That’s a mistake. It’s now the infrastructure layer for a new industrial revolution, one powered by intelligence, not electricity.

If you’re investing with a 5- to 10-year time horizon and can stomach some volatility along the way, Nvidia might be the most important company to own this decade.