Tropical Storm Erin expected to become hurricane today. Invest 98L could become depression

The National Hurricane Center is tracking two systems in the Atlantic basin, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Erin is expected to become a hurricane later today, Aug. 15, and a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph over the weekend. A major hurricane is a Category 3 or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

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In the Gulf, Invest 98L could become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas this afternoon or evening.

Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., Aug. 15:

Where is Tropical Storm Erin going?

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. 

NOAA hurricane tracker: See spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin

What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?

• Invest 98L: Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted in association with a disturbance located about 75 miles off the coast of northeastern Mexico or southern Texas coastline. The system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland this afternoon or evening. Regardless of development, locally heavyrainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next couple of days, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 50 percent.

  • Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 50 percent.

Invest 98L spaghetti models

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

➤ Track Invest 98L

What is an invest?

Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.

Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They’re usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they’ve been designated as an invest does not guarantee they’ll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane.

Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.

Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.

What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?

The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.

The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.

The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

Is Tropical Storm Erin coming to Florida, what is its path?

No. Erin is moving west-northwest and the center of the storm is expected to remain east of Florida.

Remember, forecasts can change so it’s always best to be prepared.

➤ Excessive rainfall forecast

What impact Erin will have on Florida and the eastern coast of the United States remains uncertain, but forecasters said “the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week continues to increase.”

Invest 98L could strengthen into tropical depression. Who could feel impacts?

Chances for tropical development have increased for Invest 98L, which could become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland this afternoon or evening over northeastern Mexico of southern Texas.

Heavy rainfall associated with Invest 98L could lead to isolated or scattered cases of flooding Friday into Saturday, especially in urban and poor drainage areas today, the National Weather Service Brownsville, Texas, posted on X.

Rainfall estimates range from 2.2 to 2.4 inches along and east of US-281/I-69C by Friday afternoon, decreasing to 1.75 inches Saturday, Aug. 16.

A flood watch remains in effect for Cameron and Southern Hidalgo counties on Friday.

Increased rip currents and swells also remain a concern along the Texas coast, the NWS said.

Florida weather radar for Aug. 15, 2025

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Hurricane names for 2025 season

Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.

• Andrea  (June 20)

• Barry  (June 29)

• Chantal (July 5)

• Dexter: (Aug. 3)

• Erin: (Aug. 11)

• Fernand: fair-NAHN (historically forms Aug. 29)

• Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL

• Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh

• Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah

• Jerry: JEHR-ee

• Karen: KAIR-ren

• Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh

• Melissa: meh-LIH-suh

• Nestor: NES-tor

• Olga: OAL-guh

• Pablo: PAHB-lo

• Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh

• Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en

• Tanya: TAHN-yuh

• Wendy: WEN-dee

National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Hurricane Center tracking Tropical Storm Erin, Invest 98L