Ventura sees gold prices testing $3,600 an ounce by year-end amid global uncertainty

Gold prices may continue to stay elevated through the second half of 2025, according to Ventura Securities. The brokerage expects Comex gold to touch $3,600 an ounce by year-end, following a record high of $3,534.10 on August 7, which surpassed the earlier peak of $3,509.90 set in April.

Ventura attributed the outlook to macroeconomic headwinds, geopolitical risks, and sustained investment demand.

“Gold’s strategic role in portfolios has strengthened as investors navigate an era of slower global growth, policy uncertainty, and elevated geopolitical risks,” said NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities at Ventura.

He added that inflationary pressures, a softer US dollar, and potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts could support further upside in prices.

Over the past three years, gold has delivered average annual returns of 23%, outpacing the Nifty 50’s 11% during the same period. Ventura highlighted gold’s role as a hedge, noting its negative correlation with equities has helped cushion portfolio losses during market sell-offs.

Data from Ventura showed Comex gold gained 28.68% year-to-date (July 2025), compared with 4% returns from the Nifty 50. In 2024, gold rose 27.23% against the index’s 8.8%.

India’s gold ETF market expanding

India’s gold ETF holdings grew 42% year-on-year to 66.68 tons as of June 30, 2025. Assets under management surged 88% to ₹64,777 crore, while investor accounts climbed 41% to 76.54 lakh.

Ventura said younger investors, fractional ownership models, and fintech platforms are driving this shift from physical jewelry to digital investment channels.

Global demand trends

Global gold demand in Q2 2025 rose 3% year-on-year to 1,249 tons, led by investment demand and ETF inflows despite weaker jewelry consumption. Central bank gold holdings increased to 36,345 tons, with India’s reserves at 880 tons.

Ventura said continued central bank buying, robust ETF inflows, and steady retail participation in India are likely to support prices in the coming months.

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