Trump's war on statistics risks leaving us all in the dark

In Donald Trump’s first term, he infamously used a black Sharpie to alter a hurricane forecast to support his claim that Alabama would be affected by the storm. It was not.

In his second term, he’s taking a black Sharpie to reality itself.

No longer held back by responsible advisers or members of Congress with any backbone, Trump has begun a war on any facts or data that don’t serve him, from economic statistics that make him look bad to crime data that doesn’t support his demand for power.

Once the gold standard of data, the U.S. government risks becoming as believable as Trump’s press secretary breathlessly praising his greatness.

This will hurt all of us, from doctors trying to keep people healthy to police seeking to keep them safe to business leaders looking to make tough decisions.

Trump’s impulse to bend reality is often surreal and born out of his sense of having to be right all the time.

Statistics are supposed to be neutral. A weather forecast does not care about politics. Neither does unemployment data, inflation or public health statistics. But Trump’s Sharpie was a preview of something more dangerous: the impulse to bend not just the story of events, but the very measurements by which we understand them.

We are now heading into the fall of 2025 with a strange sensation: The numbers we once relied on no longer hold.

When D.C.’s crime numbers don’t justify a federal takeover? Ignore them.

When a weak jobs report spoils the narrative? Fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner.

When the census counts undocumented immigrants? Exclude them.

Trump has discovered a simple trick: If he doesn’t like the number, he changes it. He wants to “Sharpie” not just storms, but data about jobs, the economy and health. If he wants favorable ratings, he’ll choose pollsters who will deliver the answer he’s looking for. The number may look correct, but the methodology behind it is rigged.

Of course, that’s not how it works. Reality doesn’t bend to satisfy a wannabe tyrant’s ego. A poll stacked with supporters doesn’t reflect real public opinion, and unemployed workers don’t just disappear because you fudged the data.

For generations, federal statistics have been the compass by which Americans navigated storms, both literal and political. Data is the lifeblood of the federal government. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us whether the economy is growing or shrinking. The Census Bureau counts the population that determines political power and federal funding. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tracks outbreaks and mortality rates, while the Environmental Protection Agency measures the pollutants in the air we breathe and the water we drink.

If we cannot trust Washington’s numbers, someone else will have to step up.

States are well positioned to know how many jobs were created within their borders, how many hospital beds are filled, where disease is spreading, whether classrooms are shrinking or swelling. Industries, too, have their own ways of measuring economic health. Taken together, these decentralized snapshots can give us a more accurate picture than doctored federal releases.

The private sector can play a role, too. Major technology firms already track mobility, consumption and health trends at a level of detail governments rarely match. Hospitals, insurers and research institutions keep vast data troves on public health. Banks and businesses can track employment and economic activity in real time. If Washington insists on erasing the record, it may fall to these actors to provide the country with a clearer picture of itself.

It may fall to governors, universities, nonprofits and private firms to provide the public square with reliable information until the federal government can once again be trusted.

Nonprofits and media organizations can assemble and share this information in ways the public can trust. A distributed model of truth is not ideal, but in moments of crisis it can be the only safeguard against federal manipulation.

It won’t be perfect. Federal agencies exist to give us a national perspective — to add up the parts and show us the whole. A jobs report does not tell us whether California or Ohio is thriving, but whether America is growing. A census does not describe one community, but the composition of the country itself. If America cannot agree on the numbers, we cannot agree on the problems, let alone the solutions.

The larger question is whether Americans are willing to demand this vigilance. Data is not glamorous, but it is an important foundation of democracy. If the public shrugs at manipulated numbers, then the lies calcify into the official record. If we push back, then Trump’s Sharpie loses its power.

The storm ahead will not just be political. It will be about who we trust to count, to measure, to tally our collective life. If the federal government abdicates that role, others must step in until it can be restored.

Because without reliable numbers, we cannot even begin the work of understanding our problems, let alone solving them.

For more thought-provoking insights from Michael Steele, Alicia Menendez and Symone Sanders-Townsend, watch “The Weeknight” every Monday-Friday at 7 p.m. ET on MSNBC.