Apple iPhone 17 Launch Could Trigger 'Sell The News' Reaction, Analyst Warns

Apple Inc. AAPL is gearing up for its next iPhone cycle with a September launch expected to spotlight a new ultra-thin iPhone 17 Air, but muted consumer buzz and restrained carrier promotions suggest the release may lack the blockbuster momentum of past product cycles.

Bank of America Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan maintained a Buy rating on Apple AAPL with a price forecast of $250.

Mohan said expectations for Apple’s next iPhone cycle remain modest despite reports suggesting a September 9 launch for the iPhone 17 lineup, with preorders starting September 12 and in-store availability on September 19.

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He expects the headline feature to be the new ultra-thin iPhone 17 Air, priced $100 higher than the current Plus model.

However, he noted that investor enthusiasm for the thinner design is subdued compared to past form-factor-driven cycles. Mohan projects iPhone shipments to grow 1% year-over-year in fiscal 2026 to 235 million units, in line with Wall Street’s 233 million estimate (Visible Alpha).

He added that carrier promotions, which influence iPhone sales, should match last year’s levels. However, earlier tariff-driven device sales and a more restrained promotional environment suggest a softer holiday season.

If Apple sticks to a September 19 release, there would be nine shipping days in the fiscal fourth quarter, similar to last year. Mohan cautioned that iPhone events often trigger a short-term “sell the news” reaction. Still, a strong Apple Intelligence demo, deeper third-party integrations, or surprise pricing could improve stock performance.

He expects Apple to unveil four iPhone 17 models (Pro, Pro Max, Air, and base), running iOS 26, with the Air measuring just 5.55mm and potentially featuring Apple’s in-house modem.

Other likely announcements include the Apple Watch Series 11, Ultra 3, and AirPods 3, as well as deeper AI features and tighter Siri integration.

Price Action: Apple stock is trading higher by 0.28% to $228.40 at last check Monday.

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