Hurricane Humberto, Invest 94L spaghetti models. Fort Myers, Cape Coral in path?

The National Hurricane Center is tracking Hurricane Humberto, which formed in the Atlantic and is rapidly strengthening, and Invest 94L, expected to develop into a tropical depression over the weekend.

Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane later today or Saturday. A major hurricane is Category 3 or higher, with winds over 110 mph.

Swells from Humberto are likely to bring life-threatening surf and rip current conditions to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda this weekend.

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Forecasters expect Invest 94L to become a tropical depression this weekend in the area around the central and northwest Bahamas, east of Florida.

If Invest 94L forms into a tropical storm, it will be named Imelda.

Impacts from Humberto and Invest 94L on the U.S. and Florida are difficult to predict as the systems could interact in what’s called the Fujiwhara effect.

However, risks for impacts along the coast between Florida and North Carolina are increasing, NHC Director Michael Brennan said Sept. 25.

Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared.

As it stands, the Fort Myers area’s current weather forecast predicts isolated and scattered showers and thunderstorms, with temperatures in the high 80s through Wednesday.

Where is Hurricane Humberto?

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. 

Hurricane Humberto spaghetti models

Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

Where is Invest 94L? Will it become Imelda?

An area of low pressure is expected to form as the system moves near the southeast Bahamas.

This low is expected to become a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas over the weekend.While there remains considerable uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Residents in this area should monitor the progress of the system.

If it continues to strengthen, it would become Imelda.

Invest 94L spaghetti models

Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

Will Hurricane Humberto or Invest 94L impact Florida?

The answer to that question is keeping forecasters guessing since Humberto and Invest 94L could interact with each other in what’s known as the Fujiwhara effect.

“While there remains considerable uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week,” the National Hurricane Center said.

➤ From Hurricane Hell Week to twin tropical trouble? Tricky forecast for Humberto, 94L

“In a worst-case scenario, heavy rain from both tropical and non-tropical origins could bring prolonged, tremendous rain and flooding to parts of the Carolinas and Georgia,” AccuWeather said.

“Regardless of whether a hurricane makes landfall in the southeastern U.S. or not, strong winds will create large, chaotic swells that will propagate toward the southern and middle Atlantic coast late this weekend to the middle of next week.”

Be prepared for the possibility of coastal flooding, strong rip currents and beach erosion, AccuWeather forecasters said.

What is the Fujiwhara effect?

“When two hurricanes spinning in the same direction pass close enough to each other, they begin an intense dance around their common center,” the National Weather Service said.

➤ Fujiwhara effect making it hard to figure out Florida impacts of Humberto, Invest 94L. What is it?

“If one hurricane is a lot stronger than the other, the smaller one will orbit it and eventually come crashing into its vortex to be absorbed.

“Two storms closer in strength can gravitate toward each other until they reach a common point and merge, or merely spin each other around for a while before shooting off on their own paths.

“In rare occasions, the effect is additive when the hurricanes come together, resulting in one larger storm instead of two smaller ones.”

So simply put, if there are two hurricanes spinning close together — usually between 345 and 863 miles — here’s what can happen:

• One gets absorbed by the other

• They merge into a single storm

• They shoot off on their own path in a sort of slingshot effect

• Rarely, they not only merge but become a larger storm than each individual was

Overview: What’s happening in the tropics?

The National Hurricane Center is tracking three systems in the Atlantic basin: Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, Hurricane Humberto and Invest 94L.

Invest 94L: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located near Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba.

An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave by tonight when it moves near the southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas over the weekend, and then track northwestward or northward over the southwestern Atlantic.Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and are likely to spread across the Bahamas and eastern Cuba during the next day or two.

While there remains considerable uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week.

Residents in this area should monitor the progress of the system.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 80 percent.

• Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.

If it continues to strengthen, it would become Imelda.

Post Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle: Gabrielle is expected to approach the coast of Portugal early Sunday, Sept. 28. Weakening is expected to continue over the weekend.

Hurricane Humberto: Humberto strengthened into a hurricane Sept. 26 and is expected to continue strengthening, with the forecast for a Category 4 storm over the weekend.

What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?

The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.

The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.

The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

Memories of Hurricane Helene fresh as eyes keep wary eye on tropics

A combination of weather factors and geography helped make Hurricane Helene one of the most brutal storms in the modern history of hurricanes.

Helene formed in the northwestern Caribbean on Sept. 24, 2024, and rapidly intensified into a powerful Category 4 hurricane before making landfall near Perry, Florida, less than 72 hours later.

➤ Hurricane Helene began a path of destruction a year ago. Why was it was so deadly?

Then a double whammy from a colliding weather pattern set up historic rainfall across the North Carolina and Tennessee mountains.

A year later, many hurricane victims from Florida to Tennessee continue to struggle with attempts to rebuild and recover.

What to add to hurricane kit? What hurricane supplies are tax free?

Officials regularly encourage Florida residents to prepare for storms before a hurricane is approaching, while shelves are fully stocked and you aren’t battling crowds all rushing to the store at the same time.

“It only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community,” the National Hurricane Center Miami posted on X.

➤ See list of emergency supplies you can now buy tax free

On Aug. 1, specific hurricane supplies became permanently tax-free in Florida, ranging from batteries to generators.

➤ Don’t have a hurricane supply kit? From the basics to the extras, here’s what you need

Here are some of the basics you should have:

• Non-perishable food

• Two-week supply of medications

• Flashlight

• A go-bag with essential supplies in case you need to leave quickly

• Portable cellphone chargers

• Battery-operated radio

• List of emergency phone numbers, including those for family members

• Copy of your insurance policy

Weather radar for Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lee County, Florida

Current weather watches and warnings issued in Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lee County, Florida

Excessive rainfall forecast across Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lee County, Florida

When does hurricane season end?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Hurricane names for 2025 season

Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.

• Andrea  (June 20)

• Barry  (June 29)

• Chantal (July 5)

• Dexter: (Aug. 3)

• Erin: (Aug. 11; hurricane Aug. 15; major hurricane Aug. 16)

• Fernand: (Aug. 23)

• Gabrielle: (Sept. 17; hurricane Sept. 21; major hurricane Sept. 22)

• Humberto: (Sept. 24; hurricane Sept. 26)

• Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah

• Jerry: JEHR-ee

• Karen: KAIR-ren

• Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh

• Melissa: meh-LIH-suh

• Nestor: NES-tor

• Olga: OAL-guh

• Pablo: PAHB-lo

• Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh

• Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en

• Tanya: TAHN-yuh

• Wendy: WEN-dee

Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

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Contributors: USA Today

This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: NHC NOAA Humberto, Invest 94L track, location. Fort Myers, FL impact?