U.S. stock futures surge today as Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally ahead of critical jobs report, Federal Reserve rate clues and government shutdown deadline; Nvidia, Oracle …

US stock futures climbed on Monday morning as Wall Street looked to recover from last week’s losses while keeping a close eye on a looming government shutdown and the all-important September jobs report. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 214 points, or 0.5%, while S&P 500 futures added 0.6% and Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 0.7%. The move higher came after a turbulent stretch in which the artificial intelligence trade, a key driver of this year’s market rally, lost some momentum.

Oracle shares gained more than 1% in premarket trading, and Nvidia advanced 0.7% after recent pressure on AI-related stocks.

Last week, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, marking its worst performance since August 1 and pulling the index 0.8% below its record high. The Nasdaq fell 0.7%, its sharpest drop in nearly two months, while the Dow lost 0.2%, snapping a three-week winning streak.
Analysts pointed to rising doubts about two themes that have fueled the rally: the durability of the AI infrastructure boom and expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Economic data added to the uncertainty. Weekly jobless claims came in below forecasts, and second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, signaling economic resilience but also raising concerns that the Fed may not move quickly to ease policy.

Investors are now focused on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show 43,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. A “goldilocks” result — not too strong to revive inflation fears, yet not too weak to suggest a slowdown — may be crucial to sustaining the bull market. The report could also be delayed if Washington fails to avert a looming government shutdown at midnight on Tuesday. President Trump is scheduled to meet with congressional leaders in a last-minute effort to strike a funding deal.

September has still been a winning month overall, with the S&P 500 up 2.8%, the Dow higher by 1.5%, and the Nasdaq ahead 2.9% thanks to tech strength. Still, the outlook remains clouded by politics and policy. Trump’s surprise tariff announcement last week added pressure on global trade sentiment, while Wall Street is preparing for the third-quarter earnings season, with big banks set to kick off reporting in mid-October. Carnival will post results today, but Nike’s earnings on Wednesday are expected to be the highlight of a quiet week. Beyond equities, gold surged to fresh records above $3,800 an ounce as investors sought safety ahead of the potential shutdown and a weaker dollar lifted demand. Silver gained 2.4%, while platinum and palladium also rallied. Oil, by contrast, slipped below $65 a barrel, with Brent crude falling under $70 as OPEC+ considered a fresh production hike to regain market share. Analysts warn that rising output could drive crude into the mid-$50s next year despite strong Chinese demand. In corporate news, cannabis stocks soared after President Trump posted a video on Truth Social endorsing cannabinoids for seniors. The AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis ETF surged 25% in premarket trade, while the Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF rose nearly 13%. Aurora Cannabis jumped 14%, and Tilray Brands also gained. Elsewhere, Canopy Growth rallied almost 18%.

In the healthcare sector, GSK shares climbed 3% on news that CEO Emma Walmsley will step down in December and be replaced by insider Luke Miels. AstraZeneca stock rose 1% after the company announced a $50 billion U.S. manufacturing investment and plans for a direct U.S. listing.

Chinese tech giant Alibaba also surged more than 3% in U.S. premarket trading after analysts raised price targets, citing its AI and cloud expansion. Morningstar boosted its fair value estimate for Alibaba’s ADRs by 49% to $267, while Morgan Stanley raised its target by 21% to $200. The stock is now up nearly 50% this month, making it the top gainer on the Hang Seng Tech Index.

Top gainers today

• Nvidia — advanced 0.7% in premarket trading
• Oracle — shares climbed more than 1% premarket
• AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis ETF (MSOS) — jumped ~25% after Trump’s cannabinoid endorsement
• Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) — popped ~12.9%
• Aurora Cannabis — rose nearly 14%
• GSK — gained ~2.9% in European markets after CEO news
• AstraZeneca — up ~1% after U.S. listing and HQ announcements
• Occidental Petroleum — gained ~1.2% on reports of potential divestment of OxyChem
• Merus — surged ~38% following acquisition news by Genmab.

Top losers today

• Genmab — dropped ~3.5% amid the acquisition announcement of Merus
• Intel — slipped ~1.6% despite earlier gains, amid reports of company weakening
• Electronic Arts (EA) — down ~1.1% after earlier strength and takeover speculation

Why is this week so critical for markets?

Two major risks are in focus:

1. Government shutdown:
   • Federal funding runs out at 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday if Congress doesn’t reach a deal.
   • President Donald Trump is meeting congressional leaders Monday in a last effort to avoid a shutdown.
   • A closure could delay critical economic data, including Friday’s jobs report.
2. September jobs report:
   • Economists expect 43,000 new nonfarm payrolls and unemployment steady at 4.3%.
   • A “Goldilocks” number — not too hot, not too cold — could keep markets steady.
   • A strong report might make the Fed stay hawkish, while weak data could signal a slowdown.

Despite last week’s pullback, Wall Street is still on pace to close September and the third quarter with solid gains:

• The S&P 500 is up 2.8% month-to-date.
• The Nasdaq has rallied 2.9%.
• The Dow has gained 1.5%.

With the S&P 500 trading near records, Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian suggested that current multiples may represent a “new normal” for a market dominated by AI and mega-cap growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged valuations are “fairly high,” echoing concerns reminiscent of Alan Greenspan’s famous “irrational exuberance” warning in 1996. Yet history shows stocks rallied for years after Greenspan’s remarks, a reminder that investors who sit out may risk missing significant gains.

This week’s calendar offers few earnings but high stakes. The combination of September jobs data, the threat of a government shutdown, and the end of the third quarter is setting the stage for a volatile start to October.