Dow, Nasdaq Futures Climb, Gold Soars As Investors Brush Off Looming Shutdown — But Economists Warn Costly 'Data Blackout' Could Skew Outlook
U.S. stock market futures advanced and gold hit a new all-time high on Monday morning, with investors shrugging off the near-certainty of a government shutdown as Wall Street weighs the limited immediate financial fallout against the more significant risks of a prolonged political impasse.
While the market appears calm, a key risk looms: a potential blackout of crucial economic data that could leave investors and policymakers flying blind.
Futures Rise Despite 83% Shutdown Bets
As of early Monday, Dow Jones futures were up 127 points, or 0.27%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 108 points (+0.44%), and S&P 500 futures rose by 0.34%. Meanwhile, gold hit a fresh all-time high $3,815.28 per ounce.
The positive sentiment comes even as bettors on Polymarket give an 83% probability of a government shutdown occurring at midnight on Wednesday, Sept. 30.
| Futures | Change (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | 0.27% |
| S&P 500 | 0.34% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.44% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.35% |
Wall Street’s Unfazed Initial Reaction Is Logical
According to Jim Bianco, President at Bianco Research LLC, the market’s muted reaction is logical, as the initial shock is often minimal. He notes that while a shutdown matters for many reasons, “its INITIAL impact on security prices or exchange rates should be negligible.”
How Does A Shutdown Impact Financial Markets?
The primary concern for financial markets, Bianco argues, is not the shutdown itself but the suspension of government services that produce vital economic statistics.
“The biggest FINANCIAL MARKET impact from a shutdown is the suspension of government-released economic data,” he stated. This “data blackout” could have tangible consequences quickly; for instance, the critical September unemployment and payroll report, due Friday, Oct. 3, would not be released if the government is closed.
A Halt In Economic Releases Muddies The Outlook
This lack of fresh data could become a serious issue if the shutdown persists. Bianco warns that a prolonged event “can become significant… accumulating the delays in statistical reports, which further muddies the economic outlook.”
Without timely reports on inflation, employment, and growth, it becomes increasingly difficult for the Federal Reserve and investors to make informed decisions. For context, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasted 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019.
Price Action
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose on Friday. The SPY was up 0.57% at $661.82, while the QQQ rose 0.41% to $595.97, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Meanwhile, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE: DIA), tracking the Dow Jones, ended 0.62% higher at $462.28.
Gold Spot US Dollar rose 1.45% to hover around $3,813.69 per ounce, as of the publication of this article.
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