RBA interest rates live updates: September 2025
Australia’s Big Four banks have all but ruled out an interest rate cut
1.11pm: A forecast is no certainty but when the the Big Four – and I am not talking caravan parks here – rule out a September interest rate cut, it’s worth paying attention. The Big Four banks – ANZ, NAB, Westpac and CBA – are unanimously expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold the cash rate steady at 3.60 per cent today. The banks are still saying further cuts could be on the horizon, but perhaps not as many as they originally expected.
Will there be an interest rate cut this month?
1pm: A rate cut today is not looking likely. Despite the fact commentary following last month’s rate cut predicting there would be more to come this year (including September), there has been a marked shift in sentiment.
For the first time this year, all 32 experts and economists surveyed for the Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey unanimously agreed that the RBA will keep the cash rate steady at its September meeting.
“Mixed economic signals have kept the RBA in a holding pattern. While spending remains strong, rising inflation and increasing unemployment add complexity to the decision-making process,” Graham Cooke, Head of Consumer Research at Finder, said.
That old chestnut: Inflation
12.50pm: The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures for August show the annual inflation rate rose from 2.8 per cent to 3 per cent, the highest since July last year. That’s still within the RBA’s preferred band of 2-3 per cent but the fact it’s gone up, rather than down, is likely to be all the ammo Reserve Bank governor Michelle Bullock needs to slow things right down again.
It shouldn’t be cause for panic stations though. In the year to December 2022, headline CPI inflation was much higher – about 7.8 per cent. It was after then that former RBA governor Philip Lowe went back on his “no rate rises until 2024”.
From May 2022 through to December 2023, the RBA raised the cash rate a total of 13 times. During a core stretch in 2022–2023, the RBA delivered 10 consecutive rate hikes.
What happened at the last RBA meeting in August?
12.40pm: The interest rate was cut by 25 basis points and while it was a welcome reprieve for mortgage holders, experts warned rising property prices across all capital cities last quarter could widen the gap between buyers and sellers.
At the time, economists predicted there will be up to two more rate cuts this year alone – but a lot has happened between then and now.
Welcome to our coverage of the RBA cash rate announcement
12:30pm: Thanks for joining us today for our live blog ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next decision on the cash rate.
The Reserve Bank board will make their announcement at 2.30pm. Whilst plenty of experts have their opinions on which way things will go today, we know from previous decisions this year that the RBA likes to keep us on our toes.
Will interest rates remain steady at 3.60 per cent, or will the board decide to cut to 3.35 per cent? Or – more shockingly – could there be a hike back up to 3.85 per cent?