Gold stocks trounce AI-driven chip rally with 135% gain in 2025
by Winnie Hsu
For all the hype over artificial intelligence and the surge in chip stocks this year, gold miners have actually been the better buy.
A gauge of the world’s gold equities from MSCI Inc. has soared about 135% this year, tracking gains in the precious metal. It’s on course for its greatest-ever outperformance versus the index compiler’s measure of major global semiconductor firms, which is up 40%.
The surprisingly large gap underscores a key dynamic in this year’s global markets: Even as a sense of FOMO drives investors to chase gains in anything related to AI, they are also lured by the relentless rally in gold as central banks around the world accumulate the metal.
“Gold and gold miners are one of my most bullish medium thematic calls,” said Anna Wu, a cross-asset investment strategist at Van Eck Associates Corp. in Sydney. Gold has safe haven appeal, “while gold miners are also set to benefit from margin expansion and valuation re-rating.”
Gold itself has soared more than 45% this year, touching a series of new all-time highs and on track for its best year since 1979. In addition to central bank buying, the metal has also been supported by Federal Reserve rate cuts, the trend of de-dollarization and rising holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds.
Among the heavyweights in MSCI’s gold miners index, Newmont Corp. and Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. have seen their New York-listed stocks more than double in 2025. Zijin Mining Group Co.’s shares have jumped more than 130% in Hong Kong, outpacing gains in China’s AI darling Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
Moreover, valuations are much less of a concern for the precious metals sector than they are for tech. The MSCI gold miner index trades at 13 times forward earnings estimates, slightly below its average for the last five years. In contrast, the chip gauge is at 29 times, well above its five-year average.
“Even after a near-vertical move in the yellow metal, miners’ multiples look undemanding because earnings have run faster than prices,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore. “If gold stays near record territory, the cash-flow math still argues for elevated margins.”
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