Apple analyst unveils dire forecast after iPhone 17 launch

Apple  (AAPL)  shares have seen a turbulent 2025.

While shares are up 14.5% year to date, the stock bottomed out at about $170 per share in early April. Since then, several catalysts have pushed Apple’s stock price closer to $260 per share.

The company’s most significant catalyst emerged September 9, when Apple debuted the latest versions of its iPhone Pro and iPhone Pro Max and its new ultrathin iPhone Air.

• All-new titanium casing for durability

• A19 Bionic chip powering new AI features

• Best-ever battery life on the Pro Max

• Enhanced camera sensors and imaging tools

• Slimmest iPhone design yet on select models

Despite this exciting new tech, analysts at Jefferies have had a mostly muted reaction, and on Friday the firm lowered its expectations for Apple shares.

A refreshed iPhone has traditionally been enough to boost Apple’s fortunes, but analysts at Jefferies see “excessive expectations” for a foldable version of the iPhone in the future.

The firm thinks iPhone fans could skip this replacement cycle to wait for a foldable iPhone that would be completely new to the market.

Related: Apple report reveals a worrying iPhone 17 trend

Jefferies downgraded Apple to underperform from hold, saying, “Better demand for (iPhone) 17 is likely driven by no price hike in Pro/Pro Max and effective price cut for the base, not due to new form factor or tech innovations.”

Jefferies analysts believe “more positive sales momentum has inflated expectations on the replacement cycle and prospects of the (iPhone) 18 Fold.”

Apple fans have anticipated a foldable iPhone for years, especially as hated rival Samsung has offered its foldable cell phone for years.

Once Apple debuts a foldable phone, Jefferies is confident the company will make a top-of-the-line version. But there are still issues.

“We do not doubt AAPL will be able to make the most beautiful foldable phone in the market, but the question is the total addressable market of a US$2K phone,” Jefferies’ note says.

Related: T-Mobile CEO sends major Apple iPhone message

The firm notes that although the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 7 is “nearly crease-free, and its thickness (unfolded) at 4.2mm is even thinner than the iPhone 17 Air at 5.5mm,” that phone only sells 3 million units annually.

Based on that, Apple’s current valuation is driven by an “overly bullish iPhone outlook.”

The firm says that even with a $100 price hike for the iPhone 18, its own discounted cash flow model “remains little changed at [approximately] US$205, or US$800bn below the current market cap.”

Earlier this week, Jefferies published a note saying that the initial demand for the iPhone 17, just a month after its debut, appeared stronger than last year’s iPhone 16 launch, but it is already fading.

As a critical gauge, the brokerage points to delivery lead times: the gap between when customers place orders and when they receive their phones. Jefferies tracked six key markets and noticed a clear softening, with the U.S. flagged as the weakest across all four iPhone 17 variants.

However, the firm maintained the company’s rating steady at hold with a $205.82 price target, which represents a 24% downside from the stock’s opening price on Oct. 3.

Related: Apple raised the price of the iPhone 17 Pro for this interesting reason

This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Oct 3, 2025, where it first appeared in the Technology Business News section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.