US Market Outlook: Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite nearing a crucial juncture
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite indices resumed their upmove after a brief pause in the week earlier. All the three indices were up over a per cent each. The US Government shutting down did not have any major impact on the equity markets.
Here is an analysis on how the US markets can perform in the coming week:
Dow Jones (46,758.28)
The Dow Jones broke the resistance at 46,800 on Friday but did not sustain. It touched a high of 47,049.64 and then has come off from there. Crucial resistance is in the 46,900-47,000 region. A decisive break above 47,000 is needed now to keep the uptrend alive. Only then the upside will open up for a further rally to 49,000-50,000 from here itself.
Failure to breach 47,000 will keep the index under pressure. In that case, the index can fall to test the immediate support at 46,000 initially. A break below 46,000 can then drag the Dow down to 45,500-45,000 eventually in the coming weeks.
S&P 500 (6,715.79)
Unlike the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 index has some more room to rise. It can test 6,800 or even 6,900 in the short term, but not beyond that. There is a good chance to see a downward reversal either from 6,800 itself or after an extended rise to 6,900.
This corrective fall can drag the S&P 500 index down to 6,650-6,600 thereafter. The chances of the fall extending below 6,600 will then have to be seen.
We reiterate that it is now time to be cautious rather than becoming more bullish as the S&P 500 index heads up towards 6,800-6,900.
NASDAQ Composite (22,780.51)
The expected rise to 22,900 happened last week. The NASDAQ Composite index touched a high of 22,925.43 and has come down from there. Crucial resistance is around 23,000 which can cap the upside for now. Failure to breach 23,000 from here can trigger a corrective fall to 22,400 and even to 22,100-22,000 in the coming weeks.
To avoid this fall, the index has to breach 23,000 decisively. If that happens, an extended rise to 23,600-23,800 can be seen first. Thereafter the corrective fall can come into the play.
Dollar outlook
The dollar index (97.70) remained stable after witnessing a fall initially last week. The near-term outlook is unclear. Immediate support is at 97.50. A break below it can take the index down to 97.10-97 this week. Failure to bounce back from around 97 can drag it down to 96.60 and even lower.
On the other hand, if the index manages to sustain above 97.50, then a rise back to 98.70 can be seen.
Treasury Yields
The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.12 per cent) has risen back on Friday after touching a low of 4.08 per cent. The yield has to sustain above 4.1 per cent in order to move up towards 4.2 per cent again.
Support is around 4.05 per cent. The yield will come under pressure for more fall only if it breaks below this support. Such a break can drag it down to 3.9-3.85 per cent.
For now, 4.05-4.20 per cent seems to be range within which the yield can oscillate.
Data Watch
The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data release last week showed an uptick. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.1 in September, up from 48.7 a month ago. A rise above 50 in the coming months will turn the sentiment positive. That would indicate that the activity in the manufacturing sector is expanding.
The US non-farm payroll and the unemployment rate data were not released on Friday as a result of the government shut down. There is no major data release for the coming week.
Published on October 4, 2025