Tropics Check: Eastern Atlantic wave now Invest 95L
Update
Oct 5th, 5:00 p.m.:
The wave in the eastern Atlantic is now Invest 95L with development chances raised to 50% over the next 48 hours and 70% over the next 7 days.
As it continues to move into favorable conditions, development is likely and a tropical depression could very well form this week. It is expected to approach the Leeward Islands, but long range models continue to have a north/northeasterly turn afterwards. However, it is still too early to give an exact track.
the wave in the Gulf continues to have a 0% chance of development and will most likely not develop due to unfavorable conditions and its close proximity to land.
Original
Two waves are currently being monitored out in the tropics; one in the Gulf and one in the eastern Atlantic.
First off, there is an area of weak low pressure in the Gulf that currently has a 0% chance of development over the next 48 hours and 7 days. It is currently a cluster of very disorganized thunderstorms and development of this system will most likely not happen due to the upper-level winds being strong and it’s battle with dry air in the eastern Gulf.
The second wave has just come off the coast of Africa and has a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours and 60% chance of development over the next 7 days.
Development is likely with this system into the middle parts of next week, however, a majority of long range models do have it making that same curve before coming close to the U.S. coast. With that being said, it is way too early to tell both the strength and track of this system down the line due to its current position in the Atlantic.
Neither system is expected to have any local impacts at this time but continue to stay updated both on-air and online.
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