Stock Market Today: Nasdaq, S&P 500 Futures Rise As Government Enters 2nd Week Of Shutdown—Plug, Lithium Americas, UiPath In Focus

U.S. stock futures rose on Monday following Friday’s mixed moves. Futures of major benchmark indices were higher.

The federal government shutdown will continue into this week after a Senate procedural vote failed again on Friday. The measure did not secure the 60 votes needed to advance, with only 54 senators voting in favor.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) broke $125,000 per coin mark to set a new all-time high, with trading volume more than doubling in the last 24 hours to a whopping $76 billion.

The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.14% and the two-year bond was at 3.57%. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 94.6% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest rates in its October meeting.

Futures	Change (+/-)
Dow Jones	0.11%
S&P 500	0.27%
Nasdaq 100	0.47%
Russell 2000	0.29%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Monday. The SPY was up 0.31% at $671.27, while the QQQ advanced 0.50% to $606.19, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From Last Session

Sectors posting the biggest gains on Friday included utilities, health care, and financials, while consumer discretionary and communication services stocks bucked the trend to close lower.

U.S. stocks still settled mostly higher. All three major indices recorded gains for the week, with the S&P 500 advancing around 1.1% while the 30-stock Dow also jumped 1.1%.

Due to the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to publish its monthly jobs report, so markets leaned heavily on private data pointing to labor market softening.

The ADP Employment Report showed the largest private-sector job loss in over two years, and the ISM Services PMI recorded its fourth consecutive month of contraction in its employment component.

The Dow Jones index ended 239 points or 0.51% higher at 46,758.28, whereas the S&P 500 index rose 0.0066% to 6,715.79. Nasdaq Composite declined 0.28% to 22,780.51, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, gained 0.72% to end at 2,476.18.

Index	Performance (+/-)	Value
Nasdaq Composite	-0.28%	22,780.51
S&P 500	0.0066%	6,715.79
Dow Jones	0.51%	46,758.28
Russell 2000	0.72%	2,476.18

Insights From Analysts

The ongoing government shutdown, which commenced at the start of the month, is now predicted by Polymarket to extend well into October, with a significant 70% probability of lasting until Oct.15th or even later.

Charlie Bilello, Chief Market Strategist at Creative Planning, highlighted this looming prospect in a recent X post, referencing the Polymarket odds.

In a detailed video accompanying his post, Bilello explained, “The majority saying it’s going to last October 15th or later,” underscoring the betting market’s bearish outlook on a swift resolution.

Despite the political gridlock, Bilello offered a nuanced perspective on the shutdown’s potential impact on financial markets and public benefits. Addressing widespread fears, he reassured that essential services like Social Security would remain unaffected.

Historically, government shutdowns have had a surprisingly benign effect on the stock market. Bilello noted, “More often than not, the stock market’s actually been higher during a government shutdown. So really no impact whatsoever.” He cited the 2018 shutdown, which lasted 35 days and saw the S&P 500 rally 10%, as a testament to investors’ tendency to look past temporary political disruptions.

Meanwhile, entrepreneur and investor Anthony Pompliano stirred a debate Sunday by comparing the performance of the S&P 500 stock index to that of Bitcoin.

In an X post, Pompliano stated that despite the S&P 500 surging over 100% since January 2020, the index has actually fallen 88% when evaluated against Bitcoin, citing data from the Opening Bell Daily newsletter.

“Bitcoin is the hurdle rate. If you can’t beat it, you have to buy it,” Pompliano said, suggesting that the apex cryptocurrency has crossed the benchmark required to be considered a viable investment.

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will be keeping an eye on this week;

• On Monday, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak at 5:00 p.m. ET.
• On Tuesday, August’s U.S. trade deficit will be delayed because of the government shutdown. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak at 10:00 a.m., and Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at 10:05 a.m. ET.
• Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran will speak at 10:45 a.m. and again at 4:05 p.m., Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak at 11:30 a.m., and August’s consumer credit data will be out by 3:00 p.m. ET.
• On Wednesday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at 9:20 a.m., Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr will speak at 9:30 a.m. and later at 5:45 p.m., Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak at 3:15 p.m., and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at 7:15 p.m. ET.
• The minutes of Fed’s September FOMC meeting will be out by 2:00 p.m. ET.
• On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak at 8:30 a.m. ET, initial jobless claims data for the week ending Oct. 4 will be delayed owing to the shutdown, and wholesale inventories data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at 8:35 a.m. and later at 3:45 p.m., Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak at 12:45 p.m., and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at 4:10 p.m. and later at 9:40 p.m. ET.
• On Friday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at 9:45 a.m., preliminary consumer sentiment data for October will be out by 10:00 a.m., and September’s monthly U.S. federal budget data will be delayed because of the shutdown.

Stocks In Focus

• Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE:STZ) rose 0.35% in premarket on Monday ahead of its earnings scheduled to be released after the closing bell. Analysts expect it to post earnings of $3.42 per share on revenue of $2.48 billion.
• Aehr Test Systems (NASDAQ:AEHR) was down 0.26% as analysts expect it to post quarterly earnings loss of 1 cent per share on revenue of $10.77 million.
• VCI Global Ltd. (NASDAQ:VCIG) rose 2.04% as it is projected to report results for the first half of the year before the markets open.
• Skywater Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:SKYT) jumped 4.63% after it filed for $350 million mixed shelf offering.
• Oruka Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:ORKA) slipped 0.81% as it also filed a mixed shelf offering of up to $500 million.
• Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) surged 20.21% continuing a powerful rally that has seen the hydrogen fuel-cell company’s stock climb over 163.9% in the past month.
• Lithium Americas Corp. (NYSE:LAC) shares climbed 6.53% after the company recently reached a non-binding agreement in principle with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to advance the first draw of $435 million on its previously announced $2.26 billion DOE loan.
• UiPath Inc. (NYSE:PATH) gained 8.29% as the company announced collaborations with AI startup OpenAI, Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), Alphabet Inc.’s Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Snowflake Inc. (NYSE:SNOW).

Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets

Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 1.56% to hover around $61.90 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar rose 1.45% to hover around $3,943.01 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,949.58 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.68% higher at the 98.3890 level.

Asian markets closed higher on Monday, except Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Australia’s ASX 200 indices. Japan’s Nikkei 225, South Korea’s Kospi, China’s CSI 300, and India’s S&P BSE Sensex indices rose. European markets were mixed in early trade.

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