US stock futures: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq steady after record highs as gold nears $4,100, Nvidia gains export boost, TSMC revenue surges 30% — is a Fed rate cut next?

US stock market futures were little changed on Thursday after a powerful rally pushed major indexes to record highs. Investors paused to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, ongoing AI-driven earnings momentum, and fresh geopolitical headlines.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F), Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) hovered just above the flat line in early trading. The E-mini S&P 500 December contract stood at 6,802.00, up 0.75 points, or 0.01%, as of 6:15 AM ET.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at new all-time highs on Wednesday, extending Wall Street’s rally after a brief pause earlier in the week. Sentiment strengthened following the release of Federal Reserve September meeting minutes, which showed officials remain divided on the timing of rate cuts — but most agree that more easing is likely in 2025.
Gold futures (GC=F) continued to trade near $4,057 per ounce, pulling back slightly after briefly crossing the $4,000 milestone for the first time this week. Despite the decline, gold remains up over 50% year-to-date, supported by strong central bank demand and investor hedging amid political and fiscal uncertainty.

No major economic data releases are expected Thursday due to the ongoing US government shutdown, now entering its eighth day, delaying key reports. Investors are instead focused on corporate earnings from Delta Air Lines (DAL) and PepsiCo (PEP).

Adding to the global corporate spotlight, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) reported a 30% surge in Q3 revenue, beating Wall Street estimates with $32.47 billion in sales, fueled by massive demand from AI chip leaders Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD). TSMC shares rose 3.5% following the announcement. Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA) gained 1% premarket after the US government approved new AI chip export licenses to the United Arab Emirates under a bilateral tech deal. The agreement, tied to a $1.4 trillion Emirati investment pledge in US projects, marks a key diplomatic win for the Trump administration’s AI policy. Investors will continue to monitor developments in AI trade policy, Middle East peace talks, and the Fed’s rate outlook as the week progresses.

S&P 500 futures today

The S&P 500 futures traded slightly lower, while Nasdaq-100 futures also slipped marginally. Meanwhile, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added about 23 points, or 0.1%.

Wednesday’s rally marked the S&P 500’s eighth gain in nine sessions, pushing the Nasdaq Composite past 23,000 for the first time. The Dow ended slightly below flat as blue-chip stocks lagged behind, though Nvidia (NVDA) helped cap losses with a 2% rise after CEO Jensen Huang said computing demand has surged this year.

“There are reasons to be optimistic ahead, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some more volatility,” said Kevin Mahn, Chief Investment Officer at Hennion & Walsh. “When that volatility comes, money will come off the sidelines.”

There are no major economic data releases today due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. However, investors are closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at a community banking conference, along with speeches from Michelle Bowman and Mary Daly. These follow the Fed’s latest meeting minutes showing divisions over the next move on interest rates.

Top stock gainers and losers today:

Top Gainers

• Akero Therapeutics (AKRO) — +20% after Novo Nordisk announced a $4.7 billion acquisition at $54 per share.
• PepsiCo (PEP) — +1% premarket after reporting Q3 earnings beat with adjusted EPS of $2.29 vs. $2.26 expected and revenue of $23.94 billion.
• Nvidia (NVDA) — +2% as CEO Jensen Huang said computing demand has “gone up substantially” this year.

Top Losers

• Novo Nordisk (NVO) — -2% after confirming its $4.7 billion deal to acquire Akero Therapeutics.
• Bassett Furniture (BSET) — -2% in extended trading despite posting improved earnings ($0.09 EPS vs. -$0.52 a year ago).

Akero Therapeutics stock jumps 20% after Novo Nordisk’s $4.7B acquisition

Akero Therapeutics (AKRO) shares soared nearly 20% after Novo Nordisk (NVO) announced plans to buy the biopharma firm for $54 per share, valuing the deal at $4.7 billion in cash.

Akero develops drugs for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), with its lead candidate Efruxifermin (EFX) currently in Phase 3 trials.

“If approved, EFX could become a cornerstone therapy — alone or with Wegovy — to tackle one of the fastest-growing metabolic diseases,” said Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar.

While Akero shares surged, Novo Nordisk’s stock slipped about 2% in premarket trading.

PepsiCo stock gains after strong Q3 earnings

PepsiCo (PEP) rose around 1% in premarket trading after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter earnings.

The beverage and snacks giant posted an adjusted EPS of $2.29 on $23.94 billion in revenue, surpassing analyst estimates of $2.26 EPS and $23.83 billion revenue.

PepsiCo’s stock traded at $139.60, up 0.55% after hours.

Gold prices outlook: record highs but headwinds ahead

Gold futures (December 2025) traded at $4,057.30 per ounce, down 0.32%, after reaching record highs this week.

BCA Research analysts warned that while the structural bull case for gold remains intact due to central bank demand and fiscal imbalances, short-term pullbacks are possible.

“Gold’s long-term uptrend remains intact, but tactical corrections are likely when real rates firm or the dollar strengthens,” they said.

Gold is up more than 53% year to date, driven by safe-haven buying and weakening global fiscal confidence.

Other movers: Bassett Furniture sees post-earnings dip

Bassett Furniture (BSET) shares slipped 2% in extended trading, despite showing solid improvement in Q3 earnings.

The company earned $0.09 per share on $80.1 million in revenue, compared to a loss of $0.52 per share a year ago. The stock had rallied 5.7% on Wednesday ahead of results and remains up over 21% in 2025.

Market outlook: all eyes on the Fed and AI momentum

Investors are watching whether the AI-driven rally that powered much of 2025 can sustain momentum amid policy uncertainty and a potential Fed shift. With Powell’s remarks and Fed minutes signaling mixed views, traders expect continued volatility ahead of the next policy decision.