Silver’s supercycle: Silver nears Rs 1.9 lakh/kg as ETFs double investor returns in 2025 rally; what lies ahead
Silver has stolen the spotlight in 2025, racing alongside gold to become one of the year’s most lucrative assets. Prices in India are nearing an all-time high of around ₹1.9 lakh per kilogram, mirroring gold’s record-breaking rally amid heightened global volatility, geopolitical tensions, and a deepening supply crunch. Data from Goodreturns and Bloomberg show that spot silver briefly surged above $53.54 an ounce before easing slightly, as early signs emerged that the intense global squeeze on physical silver may be stabilizing.
In India, silver traded at Rs 1,89,100 per kg in Mumbai, Delhi, and Kolkata, while commanding Rs 2,06,100 per kg in Chennai and Hyderabad — reflecting regional premiums due to transportation and refining costs. A liquidity crunch in the London bullion market has triggered a scramble for physical silver, pushing local benchmark prices higher than New York futures. Overall, precious metals have surged between 58% and 80% in 2025, far outpacing equities and debt instruments.
Silver Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have delivered spectacular returns, cementing silver’s reputation as “2025’s richest metal.” According to market trackers, silver ETFs have more than doubled investors’ money this year, significantly outperforming gold ETFs, which yielded around 63%, and major stock indices such as the Sensex and Nifty, which have posted modest 6–7% gains. On the MCX, silver December futures were last quoted at ₹1,62,700 per kg, while global spot prices continue to trade at a premium amid dwindling inventory.
The physical silver market remains extremely tight, with ETF prices reflecting even greater demand pressures due to delayed replenishment of LBMA-certified silver bars. Analysts attribute the rally to a structural mismatch between supply and demand — a situation unlikely to resolve soon. Nearly 70% of global silver output comes as a by-product of mining other metals such as zinc, copper, and gold. This linkage limits the ability of miners to ramp up silver production in response to higher prices. Unless base metal prices rise significantly, analysts warn, global silver supply will remain constrained until at least 2028.
The Silver Institute forecasts a fifth consecutive annual global deficit in 2025, estimating a shortfall of 118 million ounces. Despite expectations of a slight decline in total demand next year, silver’s industrial demand is projected to rise another 3% in 2025, driven by its critical role in solar panels, electric vehicles (EVs), and advanced battery technologies.
Bank of America has raised its silver target to $65 per ounce, with an average price of $56.25, citing continued shortages. Japanese brokerage Nomura cautioned that while silver’s rally momentum could push prices well beyond $50/oz, short-term corrections would offer “attractive entry points for long-term investors.”
“Unlike speculative spikes of 1980 or 2011, the 2025 surge is underpinned by irreversible industrial demand from the green energy transition and technology adoption,” said Motilal Oswal analysts. “The recent breakout above $50 is not just a technical event but a structural repricing to reflect new demand-supply realities.”
The brokerage projects silver to consolidate around $50–55 in the coming months, with potential peaks of $75 by 2026 and a sustained move toward $77 by 2027 on COMEX. Assuming a USD-INR rate of 90, this could translate to domestic silver prices of ₹2,40,000 by end-2026 and ₹2,46,000 by 2027.
Adding a pop-culture boost to the frenzy, Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, recently endorsed silver on social media, calling it “hot, hot, hot” and predicting a rise to $75 per ounce. While such statements have fueled investor excitement, experts stress that fundamental supply constraints, not speculation, are driving silver’s current rally.
With inventories at historic lows and ETF holdings expanding rapidly, analysts believe silver’s momentum could persist well into 2026. For investors, silver ETFs — offering liquidity, transparency, and tax efficiency — remain one of the most compelling ways to participate in this unprecedented metals rally.