‘Top of my list of worries’: Why the stock market’s boom could become America’s biggest risk

The economy’s biggest risk may not be tariffs or private credit but the stock market itself, where roughly $9 trillion in equity gains over the past year have powered high-income spending that could quickly reverse if portfolios start flashing red instead of green.

“The surge in stock prices is so key to the well-to-do who are driving consumer spending,” Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, told Yahoo Finance on Friday. “If that gets turned into reverse and we see stock prices decline, then that’s the real threat to the economy in my mind.”

Moody’s estimates the top 10% of earners account for about half of all consumer spending, a dynamic that’s kept growth steady even as inflation and tariffs bite lower-income households. That link between spending power and market performance has become increasingly evident amid fresh market swings.

US stocks rose on Friday as President Trump eased fears of a further trade escalation with China, rebounding from Thursday’s steep losses sparked by renewed worries over private credit. Regional banks, including Zions (ZION) and Western Alliance (WAL), also recovered after reports of fraudulent loans and mounting credit stress added to investor jitters against the backdrop of a prolonged government shutdown.

Still, Zandi said those risks pale next to what’s building in financial markets, where a sharp reversal could quickly shake the confidence of the wealthy households powering US growth.

“Of all the risks out there, from what’s going on in the banking system to the government shutdown and everything else, that’s the one that’s at the top of my list of worries,” he said.

“I’m more sanguine about the banking system,” he added. “I’m less sanguine about financial markets. Valuations are high. …Everything feels a bit juiced, overvalued, bordering on frothy.”

Zandi warned that froth is directly tied to the same high-income households driving US consumption. That means if market gains unwind, the very group propping up spending could quickly pull back.

‘Bifurcation of the consumer’

Deborah Weinswig, founder and CEO of Coresight Research, which tracks global retail and consumer trends, said the split between high- and low-income households is at its highest level since January 2020.

“The high-end consumer right now is still very strong and stronger than we would have even expected,” Weinswig said, noting spending among wealthier shoppers has continued to rise through the fall.

At the same time, lower-income households are stretching their budgets by visiting more stores per trip, about five or six now versus three before the pandemic, as they hunt for bargains and stack promotions.

“We continue to see this middle [consumer] being really squeezed,” she said, pointing to discount and luxury retailers as the clear winners. “Those value-oriented retailers on the bottom and those true luxury brands on the top — that’s where we continue to see a lot of strength.”

Weinswig said the retailers that stand to gain the most in this environment include Walmart (WMT), which continues to attract higher-income shoppers, along with the warehouse clubs like Costco (COST), BJ’s (BJ), and Sam’s Club, which she said have the strongest community ties and most sophisticated consumer data.

TJX Companies (TJX), Ross Stores (ROST), and Burlington (BURL) also stand out as shoppers trade down and hunt for bargains.

“We’re going to start to see not only bifurcation of the consumer, but also in some of these stocks,” she added, predicting sharper performance gaps ahead between retailers that can adapt and those that can’t.

But even as some retailers benefit from that bifurcation, there are signs the broader spending picture is starting to soften. According to Deloitte’s 2025 holiday retail survey, overall spending is expected to drop 10% from last year with consumers across all income levels projected to cut back.

“Consumers are feeling an affordability pinch at the moment,” Mike Daher, Deloitte vice chair, told Yahoo Finance. “They’re going that extra mile to make sure they get a higher ROI on their personal spending.”

That value-seeking mindset even extends to higher earners.

Among households earning at least $200,000 a year, about one in four are now exhibiting value-seeking behavior, Deloitte’s data showed.

“They’re either holding back from buying altogether, looking for cheaper alternatives, or waiting for more promotions to happen,” Daher said.

It’s a signal that even the top of the consumer pyramid, the same cohort keeping the US economy afloat, could be nearing a breaking point.

At Semafor’s World Economy Summit in Washington, Goldman Sachs president John Waldron pointed to Delta Air Lines’ (DAL) forecast that sales from premium seats will overtake coach as soon as next year, even as lower-tier retailers collapse under the weight of debt.

“Those on the lower end of the economy are suffering,” he said, noting recent bankruptcies in the auto sector, including collapses at First Brands and Tricolor, underscore how overextended borrowers and weaker consumers are feeling the squeeze.

“If there’s weakness in consumer capability and wealth and health in there,” he continued. “We’re going to have more of a problem.”

Allie Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at alexandra.canal@yahoofinance.com.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance