US Economy Report Sounds Alarm for Donald Trump
The Trump administration’s immigration policies could shrink the U.S. labor force, a new study warns.
The analysis, by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), outlines potential long-term risks to the nation’s growth and fiscal stability.
Why It Matters
The report projects steep declines in both the U.S. labor force and economic output over the next decade, warning that restrictive immigration measures could slow growth and widen federal deficits. If the projections hold, the policies could not only shrink the U.S. labor force by millions but also slow economic growth and increase federal debt, potentially affecting job availability, wages, and living standards across the country.
What To Know
The administration’s policies could decrease the U.S. labor force by 6.8 million by 2028 and 15.7 million by 2035, according to the NFAP analysis.
This decline is attributed to both legal and illegal immigration policy changes, including reduced refugee admissions, the 2025 travel ban, the end of Temporary Protected Status and humanitarian parole programs, and restrictions on international student employment opportunities.
The projected decrease in the workforce is expected to lead to a reduction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The NFAP estimates that cumulative GDP could fall by $1.9 trillion from 2025 to 2028 and by $12.1 trillion from 2025 to 2035. This represents a per capita loss of $5,612 by 2028 and $34,369 by 2035.
The analysis also indicates that these immigration policies could increase federal debt. The NFAP projects an increase in public debt of $252 billion by 2028 and $1.74 trillion by 2035. These figures do not account for additional spending on border and immigration enforcement, which could further strain federal finances.
Abigail Jackson, a spokesperson for the White House, told Newsweek: “Over one in ten young adults in America are neither employed, in higher education, nor pursuing some sort of vocational training. There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force, and President Trump’s agenda to create jobs for American workers represents this Administration’s commitment to capitalizing on that untapped potential while delivering on our mandate to enforce our immigration laws.”
Foreign-born workers have been central to recent U.S. labor force growth, accounting for nearly 85 percent of new workers between 2019 and 2024, according to the NFAP report. The study warns that tighter immigration policies could slow that momentum by curbing the flow of immigrants who help drive both job growth and productivity.
It comes after the Department of Labor acknowledged that immigration enforcement actions were adversely affecting farmers and contributing to rising food prices, and proposed a potential response.
“Given the scale, speed and investment in the federal government’s efforts to enforce immigration laws and restore the integrity of the U.S. border, the Department concludes that there will be significant labor market effects in the agricultural sector, which has long been pushed to depend on a workforce with a high proportion of illegal aliens,” the filing read.
What People Are Saying
The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) wrote in a report: “The Trump administration’s policies on illegal and legal immigration would reduce the projected number of workers in the United States by 6.8 million by 2028 and by 15.7 million by 2035 and lower the annual rate of economic growth by almost one-third, harming U.S. living standards.”
Abigail Jackson, a spokesperson for the White House, told Newsweek: “President Trump will continue growing our economy, creating opportunity for American workers, and ensuring all sectors have the workforce they need to be successful.”
What Happens Next
The White House and Congress could face renewed pressure to address labor shortages while defending or revising current immigration measures.