Will Apple Stock Move On Q4 Earnings?

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is expected to announce its earnings on Thursday, October 30, 2025. It is anticipated that earnings will be approximately $1.76 per share, with revenues potentially increasing by around 7% to $101.72 billion. This growth is likely to be partly fueled by the recent iPhone 17 lineup, which was launched about 12 days prior to the end of the quarter. Apple seems to be undergoing a more robust upgrade cycle than anticipated, as the base iPhone 17 model offers greater value than previous versions, coupled with new Pro variants priced at a premium compared to last year. Reports suggest that these models are witnessing higher demand compared to previous years, as indicated by extended delivery times for customers. The company’s Services segment is also projected to perform well, boosted by increasing subscription sales and a growing base of active devices.

The company’s current market capitalization stands at $3.7 trillion. Over the past twelve months, revenue totaled $409 billion, and the company recorded $130 billion in operating profits, leading to a net income of $99 billion. While much will hinge on how the results compare to analysts’ consensus and expectations, familiarizing yourself with historical trends might increase your chances as an event-driven trader.

There are two strategies to consider: either understand the historical probabilities and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or examine the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns following earnings and adjust your position accordingly after the earnings are disclosed. That said, if you are looking for upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – it has outperformed the S&P 500 and produced returns exceeding 105% since its launch.

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Apple’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

A few insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 13 negative one-day (1D) returns identified. In summary, positive 1D returns were observed approximately 35% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage rises to 42% when considering data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
• The median of the 7 positive returns is 4.7%, while the median of the 13 negative returns is -1.8%

Further information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is compiled in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A comparatively lower-risk strategy (though not effective if the correlation is weak) involves assessing the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identifying a pair with the highest correlation, and executing the relevant trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D show the strongest correlation, a trader can take a “long” position for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Presented below is some correlation data based on both 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Discover more about the Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a mix of all three, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), yielding strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you prefer upside with a steadier experience than an individual stock like Apple, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved >105% returns since its inception.